There has been an increasing interest in exploring signed networks with positive and negative links in that they contain more information than unsigned networks. As fundamental problems of signed network analysis, community detection and sign (or attitude) prediction are still primary challenges. To address them, we propose a generative Bayesian approach, in which 1) a signed stochastic blockmodel is proposed to characterize the community structure in context of signed networks, by means of explicitly formulating the distributions of both density and frustration of signed links from a stochastic perspective, and 2) a model learning algorithm is proposed by theoretically deriving a variational Bayes EM for parameter estimation and a variation based approximate evidence for model selection. Through the comparisons with state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world networks, the proposed approach shows its superiority in both community detection and sign prediction for exploratory networks.

We examine the fundamental problem of background modeling which is to model the background scenes in video sequences and segment the moving objects from the background. A novel approach is proposed based on the Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) while exploiting the temporal nature of the problem. In particular, we augment the standard RBM to take a window of sequential video frames as input and generate the background model while enforcing the background smoothly adapting to the temporal changes. As a result, the augmented temporally adaptive model can generate stable background given noisy inputs and adapt quickly to the changes in background while keeping all the advantages of RBMs including exact inference and effective learning procedure. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in modeling the temporal nature in background.

Accurate road speed predictions can help drivers in smart route planning. Although the issue has been studied previously, most existing work focus on arterial roads only, where sensors are configured closely for collecting complete real-time data. For collector roads where sensors sparsly cover, however, speed predictions are often ignored. With GPS-equipped floating car signals being available nowadays, we aim at forecasting collector road speeds by utilizing these signals. The main challenge compared with arterial roads comes from the missing data. In a time slot of the real case, over 90% of collector roads cannot be covered by enough floating cars. Thus most traditional approaches for arterial roads, relying on complete historical data, cannot be employed directly. Aiming at solving this problem, we propose a multi-view road speed prediction framework. In the first view, temporal patterns are modeled by a layered hidden Markov model; and in the second view, spatial patterns are modeled by a collective matrix factorization model. The two models are learned and inferred simultaneously in a co-regularized manner. Experiments conducted in the Beijing road network, based on 10K taxi signals in 2 years, have demonstrated that the approach outperforms traditional approaches by 10% in MAE and RMSE.

Innovative methods have been developed for diagnosis, activity monitoring, and state estimation that achieve high accuracy through the use of stochastic models involving hybrid discrete and continuous behaviors. A key bottleneck is the automated acquisition of these hybrid models, and recent methods have focused predominantly on Jump Markov processes and piecewise autoregressive models. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm capable of performing unsupervised learning of guarded Probabilistic Hybrid Automata (PHA) models, which extends prior work by allowing stochastic discrete mode transitions in a hybrid system to have a functional dependence on its continuous state. Our experiments indicate that guarded PHA models can yield significant performance improvements when used by hybrid state estimators, particularly when diagnosing the true discrete mode of the system, without any noticeable impact on their real-time performance.

Linear Dynamical System (LDS) is an elegant mathematical framework for modeling and learning Multivariate Time Series (MTS). However, in general, it is difficult to set the dimension of an LDS's hidden state space. A small number of hidden states may not be able to model the complexities of a MTS, while a large number of hidden states can lead to overfitting. In this paper, we study learning methods that impose various regularization penalties on the transition matrix of the LDS model and propose a regularized LDS learning framework (rLDS) which aims to (1) automatically shut down LDSs' spurious and unnecessary dimensions, and consequently, address the problem of choosing the optimal number of hidden states; (2) prevent the overfitting problem given a small amount of MTS data; and (3) support accurate MTS forecasting. To learn the regularized LDS from data we incorporate a second order cone program and a generalized gradient descent method into the Maximum a Posteriori framework and use Expectation Maximization to obtain a low-rank transition matrix of the LDS model. We propose two priors for modeling the matrix which lead to two instances of our rLDS. We show that our rLDS is able to recover well the intrinsic dimensionality of the time series dynamics and it improves the predictive performance when compared to baselines on both synthetic and real-world MTS datasets.

One key challenge in statistical relational learning (SRL) is  scalable inference. Unfortunately, most real-world problems in SRL have expressive models that translate into large grounded networks, representing a bottleneck for any inference method and weakening its scalability. In this paper we introduce Preference Relaxation (PR), a two-stage strategy that uses the determinism present in the underlying model to improve the scalability of relational inference. The basic idea of PR is that if the underlying model involves mandatory (i.e. hard) constraints as well as preferences (i.e. soft constraints) then it is potentially wasteful to allocate memory for all constraints in advance when performing inference. To avoid this, PR starts by relaxing preferences and performing inference with hard constraints only. It then removes variables that violate hard constraints, thereby avoiding irrelevant computations involving preferences. In addition it uses the removed variables to enlarge the evidence database. This reduces the effective size of the grounded network. Our approach is general and can be applied to various inference methods in relational domains. Experiments on real-world applications show how PR substantially scales relational inference with a minor impact on accuracy.

Clinical trial adaptation refers to any adjustment of the trial protocol after the onset of the trial. The main goal is to make the process of introducing new medical interventions to patients more efficient by reducing the cost and the time associated with evaluating their safety and efficacy. The principal question is how should adaptation be performed so as to minimize the chance of distorting the outcome of the trial. We propose a novel method for achieving this. Unlike previous work our approach focuses on trial adaptation by sample size adjustment. We adopt a recently proposed stratification framework based on collected auxiliary data and show that this information together with the primary measured variables can be used to make a probabilistically informed choice of the particular sub-group a sample should be removed from. Experiments on simulated data are used to illustrate the effectiveness of our method and its application in practice.

Quantile regression deals with the problem of computing robust estimators when the conditional mean and standard deviation of the predicted function are inadequate to capture its variability. The technique has an extensive list of applications, including health sciences, ecology and finance. In this work we present a non-parametric method of inferring quantiles and derive a novel Variational Bayesian (VB) approximation to the marginal likelihood, leading to an elegant Expectation Maximisation algorithm for learning the model. Our method is nonparametric, has strong convergence guarantees, and can deal with nonsymmetric quantiles seamlessly. We compare the method to other parametric and non-parametric Bayesian techniques, and alternative approximations based on expectation propagation demonstrating the benefits of our framework in toy problems and real datasets.

Object recognition systems can be unreliable when run in isolation depending on only image based features, but their performance can be improved when taking scene context into account. In this paper, we present techniques to model and infer object labels in real scenes based on a variety of spatial relations — geometric features which capture how objects co-occur — and compare their efficacy in the context of augmenting perception based object classification in real-world table-top scenes. We utilise a long-term dataset of office table-tops for qualitatively comparing the performances of these techniques. On this dataset, we show that more intricate techniques, have a superior performance but do not generalise well on small training data. We also show that techniques using coarser information perform crudely but sufficiently well in standalone scenarios and generalise well on small training data. We conclude the paper, expanding on the insights we have gained through these comparisons and comment on a few fundamental topics with respect to long-term autonomous robots.

In order to be fully robust and responsive to a dynamically changing real-world environment, intelligent robots will need to engage in a variety of simultaneous reasoning modalities. In particular, in this paper we consider their needs to i) reason with commonsense knowledge, ii) model their nondeterministic action outcomes and partial observability, and iii) plan toward maximizing long-term rewards. On one hand, Answer Set Programming (ASP) is good at representing and reasoning with commonsense and default knowledge, but is ill-equipped to plan under probabilistic uncertainty. On the other hand, Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes(POMDPs) are strong at planning under uncertainty toward maximizing long-term rewards, but are not designed to incorporate commonsense knowledge and inference. This paper introduces the CORPP algorithm which combines P-log,a probabilistic extension of ASP, with POMDPs to integrate commonsense reasoning with planning under uncertainty.Our approach is fully implemented and tested on a shopping request identification problem both in simulation and on a real robot. Compared with existing approaches using P-log or POMDPs individually, we observe significant improvements in both efficiency and accuracy.