The recent surge of interest in reasoning about probabilistic graphical models has led to the development of various techniques for probabilistic reasoning. Of these, techniques based on weighted model counting are particularly interesting since they can potentially leverage recent advances in unweighted model counting and in propositional satisfiability solving. In this paper, we present a new approach to weighted model counting via reduction to unweighted model counting. Our reduction, which is polynomial-time and preserves the normal form (CNF/DNF) of the input formula, allows us to exploit advances in unweighted model counting to solve weighted model counting instances. Experiments with weighted model counters built using our reduction indicate that these counters performs much better than a state-of-the-art weighted model counter

They concluded that UCT quickly finds Self-play Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has a good but suboptimal policy, while Outcome Sampling initially been successful in many perfect-information twoplayer learns more slowly but converges to the optimal policy games. Although these methods have been over time. In this paper, we address the question whether the extended to imperfect-information games, so far inability of UCT to converge to a Nash equilibrium can be they have not achieved the same level of practical overcome while retaining UCT's fast initial learning rate. We success or theoretical convergence guarantees focus on the full-game MCTS setting, which is an important as competing methods. In this paper we step towards developing sound variants of online MCTS in introduce Smooth UCT, a variant of the established imperfect-information games. Upper Confidence Bounds Applied to Trees In particular, we introduce Smooth UCT, which combines (UCT) algorithm.

Preventing attacks in a computer network is the core problem in network security. We introduce a new game-theoretic model of the interaction between a network administrator who uses limited resource to harden a network and an attacker who follows a multi-stage plan to attack the network. The possible plans of the attacker are compactly represented using attack graphs, while the defender adds fake targets (honeypots) to the network to deceive the attacker. The compact representation of the attacker's strategies presents a computational challenge and finding the best response of the attacker is NP-hard. We present a solution method that first translates an attack graph into an MDP and solves it using policy search with a set of pruning techniques. We present an empirical evaluation of the model and solution algorithms, evaluating scalability, the types of solutions that are generated for realistic cases, and sensitivity analysis.

Distributed constraint optimization (DCOP) is an important framework for coordinated multiagent decision making. We address a practically useful variant of DCOP, called resource-constrained DCOP (RC-DCOP), which takes into account agents' consumption of shared limited resources. We present a promising new class of algorithm for RC-DCOPs by translating the underlying coordination problem to probabilistic inference. Using inference techniques such as expectation-maximization and convex optimization machinery, we develop a novel convergent message-passing algorithm for RC-DCOPs. Experiments on standard benchmarks show that our approach provides better quality than previous best DCOP algorithms and has much lower failure rate. Comparisons against an efficient centralized solver show that our approach provides near-optimal solutions, and is significantly faster on larger instances.

Recent work has shown that the quality of work produced in a crowdsourcing working session can be influenced by the presence of performance-contingent financial incentives, such as bonuses for exceptional performance, in the session. We take an algorithmic approach to decide when to offer bonuses in a working session to improve the overall utility that a requester derives from the session. Specifically, we propose and train an input-output hidden Markov model to learn the impact of bonuses on work quality and then use this model to dynamically decide whether to offer a bonus on each task in a working session to maximize a requester’s utility. Experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk show that our approach leads to higher utility for the requester than fixed and random bonus schemes do. Simulations on synthesized data sets further demonstrate the robustness of our approach against different worker population and worker behavior in improving requester utility.

Therefore, we have to rely on an AI algorithm Many collective human activities have been shown to fill in the blank spots. More precisely, we provide a relational to exhibit universal patterns. However, the possibility view on Label Propagation (LP) [Zhu et al., 2003; of regularities underlying researcher migration Bengio et al., 2006] and introduce a novel way to significantly in computer science (CS) has barely been explored speed it up based on equitable partitions. We call the resulting at global scale. To a large extend, this is due algorithm Compressed Label Propagation (CLP) because to official and commercial records being restricted, the original LPgraph is "lifted" or rather "compressed" before incompatible between countries, and especially not running vanilla LP on the smaller graph. Running CLP registered across researchers. We overcome these results in the first translational dataset for more than a million limitations by building our own, transnational, computer scientists on which we then learn statistical migration large-scale dataset inferred from publicly available models explaining the results in sociologically plausible information on the Web. Essentially, we use Label ways. To verify the quality of our inferred geo-tags and Propagation (LP) to infer missing geo-tags of statistical models, we additionally run CLP on an orders-ofmagnitude author-paper-pairs retrieved from online bibliographies.

The intractability in cooperative, decentralized control models is mainly due to prohibitive memory requirements in both optimal policies and value functions. The complexity analysis has emerged as the standard method to estimating the memory needed for solving a given computational problem, but complexity results may be somewhat limited. This paper introduces a general methodology — structural analysis — for the design of optimality-preserving concise policies and value functions, which will eventually lead to the development of efficient theory and algorithms. For the first time, we show that memory requirements for policies and value functions may be asymmetric, resulting in cooperative, decentralized control models with exponential reductions in memory requirements.

What does it mean for an algorithm to be biased? In U.S. law, unintentional bias is encoded via disparate impact, which occurs when a selection process has widely different outcomes for different groups, even as it appears to be neutral. This legal determination hinges on a definition of a protected class (ethnicity, gender, religious practice) and an explicit description of the process. When the process is implemented using computers, determining disparate impact (and hence bias) is harder. It might not be possible to disclose the process. In addition, even if the process is open, it might be hard to elucidate in a legal setting how the algorithm makes its decisions. Instead of requiring access to the algorithm, we propose making inferences based on the data the algorithm uses. We make four contributions to this problem. First, we link the legal notion of disparate impact to a measure of classification accuracy that while known, has received relatively little attention. Second, we propose a test for disparate impact based on analyzing the information leakage of the protected class from the other data attributes. Third, we describe methods by which data might be made unbiased. Finally, we present empirical evidence supporting the effectiveness of our test for disparate impact and our approach for both masking bias and preserving relevant information in the data. Interestingly, our approach resembles some actual selection practices that have recently received legal scrutiny.

Gaussian processes (GP) are powerful tools for probabilistic modeling purposes. They can be used to define prior distributions over latent functions in hierarchical Bayesian models. The prior over functions is defined implicitly by the mean and covariance function, which determine the smoothness and variability of the function. The inference can then be conducted directly in the function space by evaluating or approximating the posterior process. Despite their attractive theoretical properties GPs provide practical challenges in their implementation. GPstuff is a versatile collection of computational tools for GP models compatible with Linux and Windows MATLAB and Octave. It includes, among others, various inference methods, sparse approximations and tools for model assessment. In this work, we review these tools and demonstrate the use of GPstuff in several models.

In many settings, we have multiple data sets (also called views) that capture different and overlapping aspects of the same phenomenon. We are often interested in finding patterns that are unique to one or to a subset of the views. For example, we might have one set of molecular observations and one set of physiological observations on the same group of individuals, and we want to quantify molecular patterns that are uncorrelated with physiology. Despite being a common problem, this is highly challenging when the correlations come from complex distributions. In this paper, we develop the general framework of Rich Component Analysis (RCA) to model settings where the observations from different views are driven by different sets of latent components, and each component can be a complex, high-dimensional distribution. We introduce algorithms based on cumulant extraction that provably learn each of the components without having to model the other components. We show how to integrate RCA with stochastic gradient descent into a meta-algorithm for learning general models, and demonstrate substantial improvement in accuracy on several synthetic and real datasets in both supervised and unsupervised tasks. Our method makes it possible to learn latent variable models when we don't have samples from the true model but only samples after complex perturbations.