Poyiadjis et al. (2011) show how particle methods can be used to estimate both the score and the observed information matrix for state space models. These methods either suffer from a computational cost that is quadratic in the number of particles, or produce estimates whose variance increases quadratically with the amount of data. This paper introduces an alternative approach for estimating these terms at a computational cost that is linear in the number of particles. The method is derived using a combination of kernel density estimation, to avoid the particle degeneracy that causes the quadratically increasing variance, and Rao-Blackwellisation. Crucially, we show the method is robust to the choice of bandwidth within the kernel density estimation, as it has good asymptotic properties regardless of this choice. Our estimates of the score and observed information matrix can be used within both online and batch procedures for estimating parameters for state space models. Empirical results show improved parameter estimates compared to existing methods at a significantly reduced computational cost. Supplementary materials including code are available.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods provide an elaborate approach to Bayesian inference on complex models, including model choice. Both theoretical arguments and simulation experiments indicate, however, that model posterior probabilities may be poorly evaluated by standard ABC techniques. We propose a novel approach based on a machine learning tool named random forests to conduct selection among the highly complex models covered by ABC algorithms. We thus modify the way Bayesian model selection is both understood and operated, in that we rephrase the inferential goal as a classification problem, first predicting the model that best fits the data with random forests and postponing the approximation of the posterior probability of the predicted MAP for a second stage also relying on random forests. Compared with earlier implementations of ABC model choice, the ABC random forest approach offers several potential improvements: (i) it often has a larger discriminative power among the competing models, (ii) it is more robust against the number and choice of statistics summarizing the data, (iii) the computing effort is drastically reduced (with a gain in computation efficiency of at least fifty), and (iv) it includes an approximation of the posterior probability of the selected model. The call to random forests will undoubtedly extend the range of size of datasets and complexity of models that ABC can handle. We illustrate the power of this novel methodology by analyzing controlled experiments as well as genuine population genetics datasets. The proposed methodologies are implemented in the R package abcrf available on the CRAN.

Particle Metropolis-Hastings enables Bayesian parameter inference in general nonlinear state space models (SSMs). However, in many implementations a random walk proposal is used and this can result in poor mixing if not tuned correctly using tedious pilot runs. Therefore, we consider a new proposal inspired by quasi-Newton algorithms that may achieve similar (or better) mixing with less tuning. An advantage compared to other Hessian based proposals, is that it only requires estimates of the gradient of the log-posterior. A possible application is parameter inference in the challenging class of SSMs with intractable likelihoods. We exemplify this application and the benefits of the new proposal by modelling log-returns of future contracts on coffee by a stochastic volatility model with $\alpha$-stable observations.

The speed with which a learning algorithm converges as it is presented with more data is a central problem in machine learning --- a fast rate of convergence means less data is needed for the same level of performance. The pursuit of fast rates in online and statistical learning has led to the discovery of many conditions in learning theory under which fast learning is possible. We show that most of these conditions are special cases of a single, unifying condition, that comes in two forms: the central condition for 'proper' learning algorithms that always output a hypothesis in the given model, and stochastic mixability for online algorithms that may make predictions outside of the model. We show that under surprisingly weak assumptions both conditions are, in a certain sense, equivalent. The central condition has a re-interpretation in terms of convexity of a set of pseudoprobabilities, linking it to density estimation under misspecification. For bounded losses, we show how the central condition enables a direct proof of fast rates and we prove its equivalence to the Bernstein condition, itself a generalization of the Tsybakov margin condition, both of which have played a central role in obtaining fast rates in statistical learning. Yet, while the Bernstein condition is two-sided, the central condition is one-sided, making it more suitable to deal with unbounded losses. In its stochastic mixability form, our condition generalizes both a stochastic exp-concavity condition identified by Juditsky, Rigollet and Tsybakov and Vovk's notion of mixability. Our unifying conditions thus provide a substantial step towards a characterization of fast rates in statistical learning, similar to how classical mixability characterizes constant regret in the sequential prediction with expert advice setting.

We provide non-asymptotic bounds for the well-known temporal difference learning algorithm TD(0) with linear function approximators. These include high-probability bounds as well as bounds in expectation. Our analysis suggests that a step-size inversely proportional to the number of iterations cannot guarantee optimal rate of convergence unless we assume (partial) knowledge of the stationary distribution for the Markov chain underlying the policy considered. We also provide bounds for the iterate averaged TD(0) variant, which gets rid of the step-size dependency while exhibiting the optimal rate of convergence. Furthermore, we propose a variant of TD(0) with linear approximators that incorporates a centering sequence, and establish that it exhibits an exponential rate of convergence in expectation. We demonstrate the usefulness of our bounds on two synthetic experimental settings.

In many fields it is common to have access to information about sums of random variables and to desire information about those variables themselves. In mass spectrometry, when two (or more) analytes with similar mass-to-charge 1 are measured, the intensity of the resulting peak is a function of the sum of abundances of those analytes (this problem occurs not only in the mass spectrometry of small molecules, but also in measuring isotope measurement in elemental and nuclear mass spectrometry). In transcriptomics, the abundance of a particular non-unique read (i.e., an RNA sequence that maps to multiple locations in the transcriptome or genome) provides information about the sum of the abundances of all transcripts that contain the read (each transcript weighted by how many copies of the read it carries). Proteomics has its own version of non-unique reads, shared peptides which can be found in multiple proteins (not only are shared peptides the principal source of difficulty in protein inference [14, 17, 18], they are also responsible for the difficulty evaluating putatative sets of discovered proteins [16, 19]). In population genetics, the prior knowledge about population structure can suggest an expected number of individuals with a particular genotype, which in turn yields probabilistic information about the individuals whose aggregate genotypes are expected to produce that sum (inference is particularly pronounced in polyploids, which increase the dimensionality of the problem [15]).

Online learning algorithms are designed to perform in non-stationary environments, but generally there is no notion of a dynamic state to model constraints on current and future actions as a function of past actions. State-based models are common in stochastic control settings, but commonly used frameworks such as Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) assume a known stationary environment. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in combining the above two frameworks and considering an MDP setting in which the cost function is allowed to change arbitrarily after each time step. However, most of the work in this area has been algorithmic: given a problem, one would develop an algorithm almost from scratch. Moreover, the presence of the state and the assumption of an arbitrarily varying environment complicate both the theoretical analysis and the development of computationally efficient methods. This paper describes a broad extension of the ideas proposed by Rakhlin et al. to give a general framework for deriving algorithms in an MDP setting with arbitrarily changing costs. This framework leads to a unifying view of existing methods and provides a general procedure for constructing new ones. Several new methods are presented, and one of them is shown to have important advantages over a similar method developed from scratch via an online version of approximate dynamic programming.

With an eye towards human-centered automation, we contribute to the development of a systematic means to infer features of human decision-making from behavioral data. Motivated by the common use of softmax selection in models of human decision-making, we study the maximum likelihood parameter estimation problem for softmax decision-making models with linear objective functions. We present conditions under which the likelihood function is convex. These allow us to provide sufficient conditions for convergence of the resulting maximum likelihood estimator and to construct its asymptotic distribution. In the case of models with nonlinear objective functions, we show how the estimator can be applied by linearizing about a nominal parameter value. We apply the estimator to fit the stochastic UCL (Upper Credible Limit) model of human decision-making to human subject data. We show statistically significant differences in behavior across related, but distinct, tasks.

Deep learning methods have shown great promise in many practical applications, ranging from speech recognition, visual object recognition, to text processing. However, most of the current deep learning methods suffer from scalability problems for large-scale applications, forcing researchers or users to focus on smallscale problems with fewer parameters. In this paper, we consider a well-known machine learning model, deep belief networks (DBNs) that have yielded impressive classification performance on a large number of benchmark machine learning tasks. To scale up DBN, we propose an approach that can use the computing clusters in a distributed environment to train large models, while the dense matrix computations within a single machine are sped up using graphics processors (GPU). When training a DBN, each machine randomly drops out a portion of neurons in each hidden layer, for each training case, making the remaining neurons only learn to detect features that are generally helpful for producing the correct answer. Within our approach, we have developed four methods to combine outcomes from each machine to form a unified model. Our preliminary experiment on the MNIST handwritten digit database demonstrates that our approach outperforms the state of the art test error rate.

We develop a new compressive sensing (CS) inversion algorithm by utilizing the Gaussian mixture model (GMM). While the compressive sensing is performed globally on the entire image as implemented in our lensless camera, a low-rank GMM is imposed on the local image patches. This low-rank GMM is derived via eigenvalue thresholding of the GMM trained on the projection of the measurement data, thus learned {\em in situ}. The GMM and the projection of the measurement data are updated iteratively during the reconstruction. Our GMM algorithm degrades to the piecewise linear estimator (PLE) if each patch is represented by a single Gaussian model. Inspired by this, a low-rank PLE algorithm is also developed for CS inversion, constituting an additional contribution of this paper. Extensive results on both simulation data and real data captured by the lensless camera demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm. Furthermore, we compare the CS reconstruction results using our algorithm with the JPEG compression. Simulation results demonstrate that when limited bandwidth is available (a small number of measurements), our algorithm can achieve comparable results as JPEG.