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 Learning Graphical Models


Deep Recurrent Q-Learning for Partially Observable MDPs

AAAI Conferences

Deep Reinforcement Learning has yielded proficient controllers for complex tasks. However, these controllers have limited memory and rely on being able to perceive the complete game screen at each decision point. To address these shortcomings, this article investigates the effects of adding recurrency to a Deep Q-Network (DQN) by replacing the first post-convolutional fully-connected layer with a recurrent LSTM. The resulting Deep Recurrent Q-Network (DRQN), although capable of seeing only a single frame at each timestep, successfully integrates information through time and replicates DQN's performance on standard Atari games and partially observed equivalents featuring flickering game screens. Additionally, when trained with partial observations and evaluated with incrementally more complete observations, DRQN's performance scales as a function of observability. Conversely, when trained with full observations and evaluated with partial observations, DRQN's performance degrades less than DQN's. Thus, given the same length of history, recurrency is a viable alternative to stacking a history of frames in the DQN's input layer and while recurrency confers no systematic advantage when learning to play the game, the recurrent net can better adapt at evaluation time if the quality of observations changes.


Probabilistic Planning for Decentralized Multi-Robot Systems

AAAI Conferences

Multi-robot systems are an exciting application domain for AI research and Dec-POMDPs, specifically. MacDec-POMDP methods can produce high-quality general solutions for realistic heterogeneous multi-robot coordination problems by automatically generating control and communication policies, given a model. In contrast to most existing multi-robot methods that are specialized to a particular problem class, our approach can synthesize policies that exploit any opportunities for coordination that are present in the problem, while balancing uncertainty, sensor information, and information about other agents.


Modeling Situated Conversations for a Child-Care Robot Using Wearable Devices

AAAI Conferences

How can robots fluently communicate with humans and have context-preserving conversation? It is the most momentous and crucial problem in robotics research, especially for service robots such as child-care robots. Here, we aim to develop a situated conversation system for child-care robots. The conversation system considers the current context between robots and children as well as the situation the child is in. The system consists of two parts. The first part tries to understand the context. This part uses the embedded sensors of robots to understand the context and wearable sensors of the child for getting information of the situation the child is in. The second part is to generate the situated conversation. In terms of the model, we designed a hierarchical Bayesian Network for the first part and a Hypernetwork model is used for the second part. We illustrate the application of communication with a child in a child-care service robots scenario. For this application, we collect wearable sensors’ data from the child and mother-child conversation data in daily life. Finally, we discuss our results and future works.


Hierarchical Factored POMDP for Joint Tasks: Application to Escort Tasks

AAAI Conferences

The number of applications of service robotics in public spaces such as hospitals, museums and malls is a growing trend. Public spaces, however, provide several challenges to the robot, and specifically with its planning capabilities: they need to cope with a dynamic and uncertain environment and are subject to particular human-robot interaction constraints. A major challenge is the Joint Intention problem. When cooperating with humans, a persistent commitment to achieve a shared goal cannot be always assumed, since they have an unpredictable behavior and may be distracted in environments as dynamic and uncertain as public spaces, and even more so if the human agents are customers,visitors or bystanders. In order to address such issues in a decision-making context, we present a framework based on Hierarchical Factored POMDPs. We describe the general method for ensuring the Joint Intention between human and robot , the hierarchical structure and the Value Decomposition method adopted to build it.We also provide an example application scenario: an Escort Task in a shopping mall for guiding a customer towards a desired point of interest.


Sampling Hyrule: Multi-Technique Probabilistic Level Generation for Action Role Playing Games

AAAI Conferences

Procedural Content Generation (PCG) using machine learning is a fast growing area of research. Action Role Playing Game (ARPG) levels represent an interesting challenge for PCG due to their multi-tiered structure and nonlinearity. Previous work has used Bayes Nets (BN) to learn properties of the topological structure of levels from The Legend of Zelda. In this paper we describe a method for sampling these learned distributions to generate valid, playable level topologies. We carry this deeper and learn a sampleable representation of the individual rooms using Principal Component Analysis. We combine the two techniques and present a multi-scale machine learned technique for procedurally generating ARPG levels from a corpus of levels from The Legend of Zelda.


How Is Cooperation/Collusion Sustained in Repeated Multimarket Contact with Observation Errors?

AAAI Conferences

This paper analyzes repeated multimarket contact with observation errors where two players operate in multiple markets simultaneously. Multimarket contact has received much attention from the literature of economics,management, and information systems. Despite vast empirical studies that examine whether multimarket contact fosters cooperation/collusion, little is theoretically known as to how players behave in an equilibrium when each player receives a noisy observation of other firms’ actions. This paper tackles an essentially realistic situation where the players do not share common information; each player may observe a different signal (private monitoring). Thus, players have difficulty in having a common understanding about which market their opponent should be punished in and when punishment should be started and ended. We first theoretically show that an extension of 1-period mutual punishment (1MP) for an arbitrary number of markets can be an equilibrium. Second, by applying a verification method, we identify a simple equilibrium strategy called "locally cautioning (LC)" that restores collusion after observation error or deviation. We then numerically reveal that LC significantly outperforms 1MP and achieves the highest degree of collusion.


Open Questions for Building Optimal Operation Policies for Dam Management Using Factored Markov Decision Processes

AAAI Conferences

In this paper, we present the conceptual model of a realworld application of Markov Decision Processes to dam management. The idea is to demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently automate the construction of operation policies by modelling the problem as a sequential decision problem that can be easily solved using stochastic dynamic programming. We will explain the problem domain and provide an analysis of the resulting value and policy functions. We will also present a useful discussion about the issues that will appear when the conceptual model to be extended into a real-world application.


The ActiveCrowdToolkit: An Open-Source Tool for Benchmarking Active Learning Algorithms for Crowdsourcing Research

AAAI Conferences

Figure Crowdsourcing systems are commonly faced with the challenge 1 (a) shows the interface which allows researchers to set of making online decisions by assigning tasks to workers up experiments which run multiple active learning strategies in order to maximise accuracy while also minimising over a single dataset. Using this dialog, the user can construct cost. To aid researchers to reproduce, benchmark and extend an active learning strategy by combining an aggregation state-of-the-art active learning methods for crowdsourcing model, a task selection method and a worker selection systems, we developed the open-source.NET ActiveCrowd-method. The user can also select the number of judgements Toolkit.


Using Lanchester Attrition Laws for Combat Prediction in StarCraft

AAAI Conferences

Smart decision making at the tactical level is important for Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents to perform well in the domain of real-time strategy (RTS) games. Winning battles is crucial in RTS games, and while humans can decide when and how to attack based on their experience, it is challenging for AI agents to estimate combat outcomes accurately. A few existing models address this problem in the game of StarCraft but present many restrictions, such as not modeling injured units, supporting only a small number of unit types, or being able to predict the winner of a fight but not the remaining army. Prediction using simulations is a popular method, but generally slow and requires extensive coding to model the game engine accurately. This paper introduces a model based on Lanchester's attrition laws which addresses the mentioned limitations while being faster than running simulations. Unit strength values are learned using maximum likelihood estimation from past recorded battles. We present experiments that use a StarCraft simulator for generating battles for both training and testing, and show that the model is capable of making accurate predictions. Furthermore, we implemented our method in a StarCraft bot that uses either this or traditional simulations to decide when to attack or to retreat. We present tournament results (against top bots from 2014 AIIDE competition) comparing the performances of the two versions, and show increased winning percentages for our method.


Proposal of Grade Training Method in Private Crowdsourcing System

AAAI Conferences

Current crowdsourcing platforms such as Amazon Mechanical Turk provide an attractive solution for processing of high-volume tasks at low cost. However, problems of quality control remain a major concern. We developed a private crowdsourcing system (PCSS) running in a intranetwork, that allow us to devise for quality control methods. In the present work, we designed a novel task allocation method to improve accuracy of task results in PCSS. PCSS analyzed relations between tasks from workers' behavior using Bayesian network, then created learning tasks according to analyzed relations. PCSS increased quality of task results by allocating learning tasks to workers before processing difficult tasks. PCSS created 8 learning tasks automatically for 2 target task categories and increased accuracy of task results by 10.77 point on average. We found that creating learning tasks according to analyzed relations is a practical method to improve the quality of workers.