When learning a hidden Markov model (HMM), sequen- tial observations can often be complemented by real-valued summary response variables generated from the path of hid- den states. Such settings arise in numerous domains, includ- ing many applications in biology, like motif discovery and genome annotation. In this paper, we present a flexible frame- work for jointly modeling both latent sequence features and the functional mapping that relates the summary response variables to the hidden state sequence. The algorithm is com- patible with a rich set of mapping functions. Results show that the availability of additional continuous response vari- ables can simultaneously improve the annotation of the se- quential observations and yield good prediction performance in both synthetic data and real-world datasets.

In this work, a novel solution to the speaker identification problem is proposed through minimization of statistical divergences between the probability distribution (g). of feature vectors from the test utterance and the probability distributions of the feature vector corresponding to the speaker classes. This approach is made more robust to the presence of outliers, through the use of suitably modified versions of the standard divergence measures. The relevant solutions to the minimum distance methods are referred to as the minimum rescaled modified distance estimators (MRMDEs). Three measures were considered - the likelihood disparity, the Hellinger distance and Pearson's chi-square distance. The proposed approach is motivated by the observation that, in the case of the likelihood disparity, when the empirical distribution function is used to estimate g, it becomes equivalent to maximum likelihood classification with Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs) for speaker classes, a highly effective approach used, for example, by Reynolds [22] based on Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs) as features. Significant improvement in classification accuracy is observed under this approach on the benchmark speech corpus NTIMIT and a new bilingual speech corpus NISIS, with MFCC features, both in isolation and in combination with delta MFCC features. Moreover, the ubiquitous principal component transformation, by itself and in conjunction with the principle of classifier combination, is found to further enhance the performance.

A long-lived autonomous agent should be able to respond online to novel instances of tasks from a familiar domain. Acting online requires 'fast' responses, in terms of rapid convergence, especially when the task instance has a short duration, such as in applications involving interactions with humans. These requirements can be problematic for many established methods for learning to act. In domains where the agent knows that the task instance is drawn from a family of related tasks, albeit without access to the label of any given instance, it can choose to act through a process of policy reuse from a library, rather than policy learning from scratch. In policy reuse, the agent has prior knowledge of the class of tasks in the form of a library of policies that were learnt from sample task instances during an offline training phase. We formalise the problem of policy reuse, and present an algorithm for efficiently responding to a novel task instance by reusing a policy from the library of existing policies, where the choice is based on observed 'signals' which correlate to policy performance. We achieve this by posing the problem as a Bayesian choice problem with a corresponding notion of an optimal response, but the computation of that response is in many cases intractable. Therefore, to reduce the computation cost of the posterior, we follow a Bayesian optimisation approach and define a set of policy selection functions, which balance exploration in the policy library against exploitation of previously tried policies, together with a model of expected performance of the policy library on their corresponding task instances. We validate our method in several simulated domains of interactive, short-duration episodic tasks, showing rapid convergence in unknown task variations.

A large number of statistical models are "doubly-intractable": the likelihood normalising term, which is a function of the model parameters, is intractable, as well as the marginal likelihood (model evidence). This means that standard inference techniques to sample from the posterior, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), cannot be used. Examples include, but are not confined to, massive Gaussian Markov random fields, autologistic models and Exponential random graph models. A number of approximate schemes based on MCMC techniques, Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) or analytic approximations to the posterior have been suggested, and these are reviewed here. Exact MCMC schemes, which can be applied to a subset of doubly-intractable distributions, have also been developed and are described in this paper. As yet, no general method exists which can be applied to all classes of models with doubly-intractable posteriors. In addition, taking inspiration from the Physics literature, we study an alternative method based on representing the intractable likelihood as an infinite series. Unbiased estimates of the likelihood can then be obtained by finite time stochastic truncation of the series via Russian Roulette sampling, although the estimates are not necessarily positive. Results from the Quantum Chromodynamics literature are exploited to allow the use of possibly negative estimates in a pseudo-marginal MCMC scheme such that expectations with respect to the posterior distribution are preserved. The methodology is reviewed on well-known examples such as the parameters in Ising models, the posterior for Fisher-Bingham distributions on the $d$-Sphere and a large-scale Gaussian Markov Random Field model describing the Ozone Column data. This leads to a critical assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the methodology with pointers to ongoing research.

Heuristic optimisers which search for an optimal configuration of variables relative to an objective function often get stuck in local optima where the algorithm is unable to find further improvement. The standard approach to circumvent this problem involves periodically restarting the algorithm from random initial configurations when no further improvement can be found. We propose a method of partial reinitialization, whereby, in an attempt to find a better solution, only sub-sets of variables are re-initialised rather than the whole configuration. Much of the information gained from previous runs is hence retained. This leads to significant improvements in the quality of the solution found in a given time for a variety of optimisation problems in machine learning.

Approximate Message Passing (AMP) has been shown to be an excellent statistical approach to signal inference and compressed sensing problem. The AMP framework provides modularity in the choice of signal prior; here we propose a hierarchical form of the Gauss-Bernouilli prior which utilizes a Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) trained on the signal support to push reconstruction performance beyond that of simple iid priors for signals whose support can be well represented by a trained binary RBM. We present and analyze two methods of RBM factorization and demonstrate how these affect signal reconstruction performance within our proposed algorithm. Finally, using the MNIST handwritten digit dataset, we show experimentally that using an RBM allows AMP to approach oracle-support performance.

We present a discriminative nonparametric latent feature relational model (LFRM) for link prediction to automatically infer the dimensionality of latent features. Under the generic RegBayes (regularized Bayesian inference) framework, we handily incorporate the prediction loss with probabilistic inference of a Bayesian model; set distinct regularization parameters for different types of links to handle the imbalance issue in real networks; and unify the analysis of both the smooth logistic log-loss and the piecewise linear hinge loss. For the nonconjugate posterior inference, we present a simple Gibbs sampler via data augmentation, without making restricting assumptions as done in variational methods. We further develop an approximate sampler using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics to handle large networks with hundreds of thousands of entities and millions of links, orders of magnitude larger than what existing LFRM models can process. Extensive studies on various real networks show promising performance.

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an "on-the-job" setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction when confident. As the model improves over time, the reliance on crowdsourcing queries decreases. We cast our setting as a stochastic game based on Bayesian decision theory, which allows us to balance latency, cost, and accuracy objectives in a principled way. Computing the optimal policy is intractable, so we develop an approximation based on Monte Carlo Tree Search. We tested our approach on three datasets---named-entity recognition, sentiment classification, and image classification. On the NER task we obtained more than an order of magnitude reduction in cost compared to full human annotation, while boosting performance relative to the expert provided labels. We also achieve a 8% F1 improvement over having a single human label the whole set, and a 28% F1 improvement over online learning.

Understanding a user's motivations provides valuable information beyond the ability to recommend items. Quite often this can be accomplished by perusing both ratings and review texts, since it is the latter where the reasoning for specific preferences is explicitly expressed. Unfortunately matrix factorization approaches to recommendation result in large, complex models that are difficult to interpret and give recommendations that are hard to clearly explain to users. In contrast, in this paper, we attack this problem through succinct additive co-clustering. We devise a novel Bayesian technique for summing co-clusterings of Poisson distributions. With this novel technique we propose a new Bayesian model for joint collaborative filtering of ratings and text reviews through a sum of simple co-clusterings. The simple structure of our model yields easily interpretable recommendations. Even with a simple, succinct structure, our model outperforms competitors in terms of predicting ratings with reviews.

There is renewed interest in formulating integration as a statistical inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack theoretical analysis. An important challenge is therefore to reconcile these probabilistic integrators with rigorous convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present the first probabilistic integrator that admits such theoretical treatment, called Frank-Wolfe Bayesian Quadrature (FWBQ). Under FWBQ, convergence to the true value of the integral is shown to be up to exponential and posterior contraction rates are proven to be up to super-exponential. In simulations, FWBQ is competitive with state-of-the-art methods and outperforms alternatives based on Frank-Wolfe optimisation. Our approach is applied to successfully quantify numerical error in the solution to a challenging Bayesian model choice problem in cellular biology.