Ordinal data are often seen in real applications. Regular multicategory classification methods are not designed for this data type and a more proper treatment is needed. We consider a framework of ordinal classification which pools the results from binary classifiers together. An inherent difficulty of this framework is that the class prediction can be ambiguous due to boundary crossing. To fix this issue, we propose a noncrossing ordinal classification method which materializes the framework by imposing noncrossing constraints. An asymptotic study of the proposed method is conducted. We show by simulated and data examples that the proposed method can improve the classification performance for ordinal data without the ambiguity caused by boundary crossings.

We study modeling and inference with the Elliptical Gamma Distribution (EGD). We consider maximum likelihood (ML) estimation for EGD scatter matrices, a task for which we develop new fixed-point algorithms. Our algorithms are efficient and converge to global optima despite nonconvexity. Moreover, they turn out to be much faster than both a well-known iterative algorithm of Kent & Tyler (1991) and sophisticated manifold optimization algorithms. Subsequently, we invoke our ML algorithms as subroutines for estimating parameters of a mixture of EGDs. We illustrate our methods by applying them to model natural image statistics---the proposed EGD mixture model yields the most parsimonious model among several competing approaches.

We investigate a local reparameterizaton technique for greatly reducing the variance of stochastic gradients for variational Bayesian inference (SGVB) of a posterior over model parameters, while retaining parallelizability. This local reparameterization translates uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such parameterizations can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the minibatch size, generally leading to much faster convergence. Additionally, we explore a connection with dropout: Gaussian dropout objectives correspond to SGVB with local reparameterization, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose variational dropout, a generalization of Gaussian dropout where the dropout rates are learned, often leading to better models. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.

Online social networks (OSN) contain extensive amount of information about the underlying society that is yet to be explored. One of the most feasible technique to fetch information from OSN, crawling through Application Programming Interface (API) requests, poses serious concerns over the the guarantees of the estimates. In this work, we focus on making reliable statistical inference with limited API crawls. Based on regenerative properties of the random walks, we propose an unbiased estimator for the aggregated sum of functions over edges and proved the connection between variance of the estimator and spectral gap. In order to facilitate Bayesian inference on the true value of the estimator, we derive the approximate posterior distribution of the estimate. Later the proposed ideas are validated with numerical experiments on inference problems in real-world networks.

Sparse representations have proven their efficiency in solving a wide class of inverse problems encountered in signal and image processing. Conversely, enforcing the information to be spread uniformly over representation coefficients exhibits relevant properties in various applications such as digital communications. Anti-sparse regularization can be naturally expressed through an $\ell_{\infty}$-norm penalty. This paper derives a probabilistic formulation of such representations. A new probability distribution, referred to as the democratic prior, is first introduced. Its main properties as well as three random variate generators for this distribution are derived. Then this probability distribution is used as a prior to promote anti-sparsity in a Gaussian linear inverse problem, yielding a fully Bayesian formulation of anti-sparse coding. Two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are proposed to generate samples according to the posterior distribution. The first one is a standard Gibbs sampler. The second one uses Metropolis-Hastings moves that exploit the proximity mapping of the log-posterior distribution. These samples are used to approximate maximum a posteriori and minimum mean square error estimators of both parameters and hyperparameters. Simulations on synthetic data illustrate the performances of the two proposed samplers, for both complete and over-complete dictionaries. All results are compared to the recent deterministic variational FITRA algorithm.

We propose Macau, a powerful and flexible Bayesian factorization method for heterogeneous data. Our model can factorize any set of entities and relations that can be represented by a relational model, including tensors and also multiple relations for each entity. Macau can also incorporate side information, specifically entity and relation features, which are crucial for predicting sparsely observed relations. Macau scales to millions of entity instances, hundred millions of observations, and sparse entity features with millions of dimensions. To achieve the scale up, we specially designed sampling procedure for entity and relation features that relies primarily on noise injection in linear regressions. We show performance and advanced features of Macau in a set of experiments, including challenging drug-protein activity prediction task.

We consider the \mnk{classical} problem of a controller activating (or sampling) sequentially from a finite number of $N \geq 2$ populations, specified by unknown distributions. Over some time horizon, at each time $n = 1, 2, \ldots$, the controller wishes to select a population to sample, with the goal of sampling from a population that optimizes some "score" function of its distribution, e.g., maximizing the expected sum of outcomes or minimizing variability. We define a class of \textit{Uniformly Fast (UF)} sampling policies and show, under mild regularity conditions, that there is an asymptotic lower bound for the expected total number of sub-optimal population activations. Then, we provide sufficient conditions under which a UCB policy is UF and asymptotically optimal, since it attains this lower bound. Explicit solutions are provided for a number of examples of interest, including general score functionals on unconstrained Pareto distributions (of potentially infinite mean), and uniform distributions of unknown support. Additional results on bandits of Normal distributions are also provided.

We develop asymptotically optimal policies for the multi armed bandit (MAB), problem, under a cost constraint. This model is applicable in situations where each sample (or activation) from a population (bandit) incurs a known bandit dependent cost. Successive samples from each population are iid random variables with unknown distribution. The objective is to design a feasible policy for deciding from which population to sample from, so as to maximize the expected sum of outcomes of $n$ total samples or equivalently to minimize the regret due to lack on information on sample distributions, For this problem we consider the class of feasible uniformly fast (f-UF) convergent policies, that satisfy the cost constraint sample-path wise. We first establish a necessary asymptotic lower bound for the rate of increase of the regret function of f-UF policies. Then we construct a class of f-UF policies and provide conditions under which they are asymptotically optimal within the class of f-UF policies, achieving this asymptotic lower bound. At the end we provide the explicit form of such policies for the case in which the unknown distributions are Normal with unknown means and known variances.

Given a set of pairwise comparisons, the classical ranking problem computes a single ranking that best represents the preferences of all users. In this paper, we study the problem of inferring individual preferences, arising in the context of making personalized recommendations. In particular, we assume that there are $n$ users of $r$ types; users of the same type provide similar pairwise comparisons for $m$ items according to the Bradley-Terry model. We propose an efficient algorithm that accurately estimates the individual preferences for almost all users, if there are $r \max \{m, n\}\log m \log^2 n$ pairwise comparisons per type, which is near optimal in sample complexity when $r$ only grows logarithmically with $m$ or $n$. Our algorithm has three steps: first, for each user, compute the \emph{net-win} vector which is a projection of its $\binom{m}{2}$-dimensional vector of pairwise comparisons onto an $m$-dimensional linear subspace; second, cluster the users based on the net-win vectors; third, estimate a single preference for each cluster separately. The net-win vectors are much less noisy than the high dimensional vectors of pairwise comparisons and clustering is more accurate after the projection as confirmed by numerical experiments. Moreover, we show that, when a cluster is only approximately correct, the maximum likelihood estimation for the Bradley-Terry model is still close to the true preference.

Action languages have emerged as an important field of Knowledge Representation for reasoning about change and causality in dynamic domains. This article presents Cerbere, a production system designed to perform online causal, temporal and epistemic reasoning based on the Event Calculus. The framework implements the declarative semantics of the underlying logic theories in a forward-chaining rule-based reasoning system, coupling the high expressiveness of its formalisms with the efficiency of rule-based systems. To illustrate its applicability, we present both the modeling of benchmark problems in the field, as well as its utilization in the challenging domain of smart spaces. A hybrid framework that combines logic-based with probabilistic reasoning has been developed, that aims to accommodate activity recognition and monitoring tasks in smart spaces. Under consideration in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming (TPLP)