We explore an as yet unexploited opportunity for drastically improving the efficiency of stochastic gradient variational Bayes (SGVB) with global model parameters. Regular SGVB estimators rely on sampling of parameters once per minibatch of data, and have variance that is constant w.r.t. the minibatch size. The efficiency of such estimators can be drastically improved upon by translating uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such reparameterizations with local noise can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the minibatch size, generally leading to much faster convergence.We find an important connection with regularization by dropout: the original Gaussian dropout objective corresponds to SGVB with local noise, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose \emph{variational dropout}, a generalization of Gaussian dropout, but with a more flexibly parameterized posterior, often leading to better generalization. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.

Learning the structure of a probabilistic graphical models is a well studied problem inthe machine learning community due to its importance in many applications. Currentapproaches are mainly focused on learning the structure under restrictive parametricassumptions, which limits the applicability of these methods. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating the structure of a probabilistic graphical model without assuming a particular parametric model. We consider probabilities that are members of an infinite dimensional exponential family [4], which is parametrized by a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) H and its kernel k. One difficulty in learning nonparametric densities is the evaluation of the normalizing constant. In order to avoid this issue, our procedure minimizes the penalized score matching objective [10, 11]. We show how to efficiently minimize theproposed objective using existing group lasso solvers. Furthermore, we prove that our procedure recovers the graph structure with high-probability under mild conditions. Simulation studies illustrate ability of our procedure to recover the true graph structure without the knowledge of the data generating process.

We propose the infinite factorial dynamic model (iFDM), a general Bayesian nonparametric model for source separation. Our model builds on the Markov Indian buffet process to consider a potentially unbounded number of hidden Markov chains (sources) that evolve independently according to some dynamics, in which the state space can be either discrete or continuous. For posterior inference, we develop an algorithm based on particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling that can be efficiently applied to a wide range of source separation problems. We evaluate the performance of our iFDM on four well-known applications: multitarget tracking, cocktail party, power disaggregation, and multiuser detection. Our experimental results show that our approach for source separation does not only outperform previous approaches, but it can also handle problems that were computationally intractable for existing approaches.

Recently, there has been significant progress in understanding reinforcement learning in discounted infinite-horizon Markov decision processes (MDPs) by deriving tight sample complexity bounds. However, in many real-world applications, an interactive learning agent operates for a fixed or bounded period of time, for example tutoring students for exams or handling customer service requests. Such scenarios can often be better treated as episodic fixed-horizon MDPs, for which only looser bounds on the sample complexity exist. A natural notion of sample complexity in this setting is the number of episodes required to guarantee a certain performance with high probability (PAC guarantee). In this paper, we derive an upper PAC bound of order O(|S|²|A|H² log(1/δ)/ɛ²) and a lower PAC bound Ω(|S||A|H² log(1/(δ+c))/ɛ²) (ignoring log-terms) that match up to log-terms and an additional linear dependency on the number of states |S|. The lower bound is the first of its kind for this setting. Our upper bound leverages Bernstein's inequality to improve on previous bounds for episodic finite-horizon MDPs which have a time-horizon dependency of at least H³.

Recent advances in Bayesian learning with large-scale data have witnessed emergence of stochastic gradient MCMC algorithms (SG-MCMC), such as stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics (SGLD), stochastic gradient Hamiltonian MCMC (SGHMC), and the stochastic gradient thermostat. While finite-time convergence properties of the SGLD with a 1st-order Euler integrator have recently been studied, corresponding theory for general SG-MCMCs has not been explored. In this paper we consider general SG-MCMCs with high-order integrators, and develop theory to analyze finite-time convergence properties and their asymptotic invariant measures. Our theoretical results show faster convergence rates and more accurate invariant measures for SG-MCMCs with higher-order integrators. For example, with the proposed efficient 2nd-order symmetric splitting integrator, the mean square error (MSE) of the posterior average for the SGHMC achieves an optimal convergence rate of $L^{-4/5}$ at $L$ iterations, compared to $L^{-2/3}$ for the SGHMC and SGLD with 1st-order Euler integrators. Furthermore, convergence results of decreasing-step-size SG-MCMCs are also developed, with the same convergence rates as their fixed-step-size counterparts for a specific decreasing sequence. Experiments on both synthetic and real datasets verify our theory, and show advantages of the proposed method in two large-scale real applications.

We consider the estimation of sparse graphical models that characterize the dependency structure of high-dimensional tensor-valued data. To facilitate the estimation of the precision matrix corresponding to each way of the tensor, we assume the data follow a tensor normal distribution whose covariance has a Kronecker product structure. The penalized maximum likelihood estimation of this model involves minimizing a non-convex objective function. In spite of the non-convexity of this estimation problem, we prove that an alternating minimization algorithm, which iteratively estimates each sparse precision matrix while fixing the others, attains an estimator with the optimal statistical rate of convergence as well as consistent graph recovery. Notably, such an estimator achieves estimation consistency with only one tensor sample, which is unobserved in previous work. Our theoretical results are backed by thorough numerical studies.

Normalized random measures (NRMs) provide a broad class of discrete random measures that are often used as priors for Bayesian nonparametric models. Dirichlet process is a well-known example of NRMs. Most of posterior inference methods for NRM mixture models rely on MCMC methods since they are easy to implement and their convergence is well studied. However, MCMC often suffers from slow convergence when the acceptance rate is low. Tree-based inference is an alternative deterministic posterior inference method, where Bayesian hierarchical clustering (BHC) or incremental Bayesian hierarchical clustering (IBHC) have been developed for DP or NRM mixture (NRMM) models, respectively. Although IBHC is a promising method for posterior inference for NRMM models due to its efficiency and applicability to online inference, its convergence is not guaranteed since it uses heuristics that simply selects the best solution after multiple trials are made. In this paper, we present a hybrid inference algorithm for NRMM models, which combines the merits of both MCMC and IBHC. Trees built by IBHC outlinespartitions of data, which guides Metropolis-Hastings procedure to employ appropriate proposals. Inheriting the nature of MCMC, our tree-guided MCMC (tgMCMC) is guaranteed to converge, and enjoys the fast convergence thanks to the effective proposals guided by trees. Experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets demonstrate the benefit of our method.

To infer a multilayer representation of high-dimensional count vectors, we propose the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN) that factorizes each of its layers into the product of a connection weight matrix and the nonnegative real hidden units of the next layer. The PGBN's hidden layers are jointly trained with an upward-downward Gibbs sampler, each iteration of which upward samples Dirichlet distributed connection weight vectors starting from the first layer (bottom data layer), and then downward samples gamma distributed hidden units starting from the top hidden layer. The gamma-negative binomial process combined with a layer-wise training strategy allows the PGBN to infer the width of each layer given a fixed budget on the width of the first layer. The PGBN with a single hidden layer reduces to Poisson factor analysis. Example results on text analysis illustrate interesting relationships between the width of the first layer and the inferred network structure, and demonstrate that the PGBN, whose hidden units are imposed with correlated gamma priors, can add more layers to increase its performance gains over Poisson factor analysis, given the same limit on the width of the first layer.

We develop a new bidirectional algorithm for estimating Markov chain multi-step transition probabilities: given a Markov chain, we want to estimate the probability of hitting a given target state in $\ell$ steps after starting from a given source distribution. Given the target state $t$, we use a (reverse) local power iteration to construct an `expanded target distribution', which has the same mean as the quantity we want to estimate, but a smaller variance -- this can then be sampled efficiently by a Monte Carlo algorithm. Our method extends to any Markov chain on a discrete (finite or countable) state-space, and can be extended to compute functions of multi-step transition probabilities such as PageRank, graph diffusions, hitting/return times, etc. Our main result is that in `sparse' Markov Chains -- wherein the number of transitions between states is comparable to the number of states -- the running time of our algorithm for a uniform-random target node is order-wise smaller than Monte Carlo and power iteration based algorithms; in particular, our method can estimate a probability $p$ using only $O(1/\sqrt{p})$ running time.

We show that the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate of models derived from Luce's choice axiom (e.g., the Plackett-Luce model) can be expressed as the stationary distribution of a Markov chain. This conveys insight into several recently proposed spectral inference algorithms. We take advantage of this perspective and formulate a new spectral algorithm that is significantly more accurate than previous ones for the Plackett--Luce model. With a simple adaptation, this algorithm can be used iteratively, producing a sequence of estimates that converges to the ML estimate. The ML version runs faster than competing approaches on a benchmark of five datasets. Our algorithms are easy to implement, making them relevant for practitioners at large.