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 Learning Graphical Models







Beyond Uncertainty Sets: Leveraging Optimal Transport to Extend Conformal Predictive Distribution to Multivariate Settings

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the scores observed on a set of calibration examples. However, this procedure is only straightforward when scores are scalar-valued, which has limited CP to real-valued scores or ad-hoc reductions to one dimension. The problem of ordering vectors has been studied via optimal transport (OT), which provides a principled method for defining vector-ranks and multivariate quantile regions, though typically with only asymptotic coverage guarantees. We restore finite-sample, distribution-free coverage by conformalizing the vector-valued OT quantile region. Here, a candidate's rank is defined via a transport map computed for the calibration scores augmented with that candidate's score. This defines a continuum of OT problems for which we prove that the resulting optimal assignment is piecewise-constant across a fixed polyhedral partition of the score space. This allows us to characterize the entire prediction set tractably, and provides the machinery to address a deeper limitation of prediction sets: that they only indicate which outcomes are plausible, but not their relative likelihood. In one dimension, conformal predictive distributions (CPDs) fill this gap by producing a predictive distribution with finite-sample calibration. Extending CPDs beyond one dimension remained an open problem. We construct, to our knowledge, the first multivariate CPDs with finite-sample calibration, i.e., they define a valid multivariate distribution where any derived uncertainty region automatically has guaranteed coverage. We present both conservative and exact randomized versions, the latter resulting in a multivariate generalization of the classical Dempster-Hill procedure.


Core Safety Values for Provably Corrigible Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We introduce the first complete formal solution to corrigibility in the off-switch game, with provable guarantees in multi-step, partially observed environments. Our framework consists of five *structurally separate* utility heads -- deference, switch-access preservation, truthfulness, low-impact behavior via a belief-based extension of Attainable Utility Preservation, and bounded task reward -- combined lexicographically by strict weight gaps. Theorem 1 proves exact single-round corrigibility in the partially observable off-switch game; Theorem 3 extends the guarantee to multi-step, self-spawning agents, showing that even if each head is *learned* to mean-squared error $\varepsilon$ and the planner is $\varepsilon$-sub-optimal, the probability of violating *any* safety property is bounded while still ensuring net human benefit. In contrast to Constitutional AI or RLHF/RLAIF, which merge all norms into one learned scalar, our separation makes obedience and impact-limits provably dominate even when incentives conflict. For settings where adversaries can modify the agent, we prove that deciding whether an arbitrary post-hack agent will ever violate corrigibility is undecidable by reduction to the halting problem, then carve out a finite-horizon "decidable island" where safety can be certified in randomized polynomial time and verified with privacy-preserving, constant-round zero-knowledge proofs.


Proximal Approximate Inference in State-Space Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a class of algorithms for state estimation in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state-space models. Our approach is based on a variational Lagrangian formulation that casts Bayesian inference as a sequence of entropic trust-region updates subject to dynamic constraints. This framework gives rise to a family of forward-backward algorithms, whose structure is determined by the chosen factorization of the variational posterior. By focusing on Gauss--Markov approximations, we derive recursive schemes with favorable computational complexity. For general nonlinear, non-Gaussian models we close the recursions using generalized statistical linear regression and Fourier--Hermite moment matching.


DEPO: Dual-Efficiency Preference Optimization for LLM Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have greatly improved their reasoning and decision-making abilities when deployed as agents. Richer reasoning, however, often comes at the cost of longer chain of thought (CoT), hampering interaction efficiency in real-world scenarios. Nevertheless, there still lacks systematic definition of LLM agent efficiency, hindering targeted improvements. To this end, we introduce dual-efficiency, comprising (i) step-level efficiency, which minimizes tokens per step, and (ii) trajectory-level efficiency, which minimizes the number of steps to complete a task. Building on this definition, we propose DEPO, a dual-efficiency preference optimization method that jointly rewards succinct responses and fewer action steps. Experiments on WebShop and BabyAI show that DEPO cuts token usage by up to 60.9% and steps by up to 26.9%, while achieving up to a 29.3% improvement in performance. DEPO also generalizes to three out-of-domain math benchmarks and retains its efficiency gains when trained on only 25% of the data. Our project page is at https://opencausalab.github.io/DEPO.


Platform-Agnostic Reinforcement Learning Framework for Safe Exploration of Cluttered Environments with Graph Attention

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Autonomous exploration of obstacle-rich spaces requires strategies that ensure efficiency while guaranteeing safety against collisions with obstacles. This paper investigates a novel platform-agnostic reinforcement learning framework that integrates a graph neural network-based policy for next-waypoint selection, with a safety filter ensuring safe mobility. Specifically, the neural network is trained using reinforcement learning through the Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) algorithm to maximize exploration efficiency while minimizing safety filter interventions. Henceforth, when the policy proposes an infeasible action, the safety filter overrides it with the closest feasible alternative, ensuring consistent system behavior. In addition, this paper introduces a reward function shaped by a potential field that accounts for both the agent's proximity to unexplored regions and the expected information gain from reaching them. The proposed framework combines the adaptability of reinforcement learning-based exploration policies with the reliability provided by explicit safety mechanisms. This feature plays a key role in enabling the deployment of learning-based policies on robotic platforms operating in real-world environments. Extensive evaluations in both simulations and experiments performed in a lab environment demonstrate that the approach achieves efficient and safe exploration in cluttered spaces.