This article provides the first procedure for computing a fully data-dependent interval that traps the mixing time $t_{mix}$ of a finite reversible ergodic Markov chain at a prescribed confidence level. The interval is computed from a single finite-length sample path from the Markov chain, and does not require the knowledge of any parameters of the chain. This stands in contrast to previous approaches, which either only provide point estimates, or require a reset mechanism, or additional prior knowledge. The interval is constructed around the relaxation time $t_{relax}$, which is strongly related to the mixing time, and the width of the interval converges to zero roughly at a $\sqrt{n}$ rate, where $n$ is the length of the sample path. Upper and lower bounds are given on the number of samples required to achieve constant-factor multiplicative accuracy. The lower bounds indicate that, unless further restrictions are placed on the chain, no procedure can achieve this accuracy level before seeing each state at least $\Omega(t_{relax})$ times on the average. Finally, future directions of research are identified.

We reexamine in this article the conceptual and mathematical framework for understanding the organization of plasticity in spiking neural networks. We propose that inherent stochasticity enables synaptic plasticity to carry out probabilistic inference by sampling from a posterior distribution of synaptic parameters. This view provides a viable alternative to existing models that propose convergence of synaptic weights to maximum likelihood parameters. It explains how priors on weight distributions and connection probabilities can be merged optimally with learned experience. In simulations we show that our model for synaptic plasticity allows spiking neural networks to compensate continuously for unforeseen disturbances. Furthermore it provides a normative mathematical framework to better understand the permanent variability and rewiring observed in brain networks.

We propose a new variational inference method based on a proximal framework that uses the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence as the proximal term. We make two contributions towards exploiting the geometry and structure of the variational bound. First, we propose a KL proximal-point algorithm and show its equivalence to variational inference with natural gradients (e.g., stochastic variational inference). Second,we use the proximal framework to derive efficient variational algorithms fornon-conjugate models. We propose a splitting procedure to separate non-conjugate terms from conjugate ones. We linearize the non-conjugate terms to obtain subproblems that admit a closed-form solution. Overall, our approach converts inference in a non-conjugate model to subproblems that involve inference in well-known conjugate models. We show that our method is applicable to a wide variety of models and can result in computationally efficient algorithms. Applications toreal-world datasets show comparable performances to existing methods.

In this paper, we address the question of identifiability and learning algorithms for large-scale Poisson Directed Acyclic Graphical (DAG) models. We define general Poisson DAG models as models where each node is a Poisson random variable with rate parameter depending on the values of the parents in the underlying DAG. First, we prove that Poisson DAG models are identifiable from observational data, and present a polynomial-time algorithm that learns the Poisson DAG model under suitable regularity conditions. The main idea behind our algorithm is based on overdispersion, in that variables that are conditionally Poisson are overdispersed relative to variables that are marginally Poisson. Our algorithms exploits overdispersion along with methods for learning sparse Poisson undirected graphical models for faster computation. We provide both theoretical guarantees and simulation results for both small and large-scale DAGs.

In this paper, we propose a novel parameter estimator for probabilistic models on discrete space. The proposed estimator is derived from minimization of homogeneous divergenceand can be constructed without calculation of the normalization constant, which is frequently infeasible for models in the discrete space. We investigate statisticalproperties of the proposed estimator such as consistency and asymptotic normality, and reveal a relationship with the information geometry. Some experiments show that the proposed estimator attains comparable performance tothe maximum likelihood estimator with drastically lower computational cost.

Consider the binary classification problem of predicting a target variable Y from a discrete feature vector X = (X1,...,Xd). When the probability distribution P(X,Y) is known, the optimal classifier, leading to the minimum misclassification rate, is given by the Maximum A-posteriori Probability (MAP) decision rule. However, in practice, estimating the complete joint distribution P(X,Y) is computationally and statistically impossible for large values of d. Therefore, an alternative approach is to first estimate some low order marginals of the joint probability distribution P(X,Y) and then design the classifier based on the estimated low order marginals. This approach is also helpful when the complete training data instances are not available due to privacy concerns. In this work, we consider the problem of designing the optimum classifier based on some estimated low order marginals of (X,Y). We prove that for a given set of marginals, the minimum Hirschfeld-Gebelein-R´enyi (HGR) correlation principle introduced in [1] leads to a randomized classification rule which is shown to have a misclassification rate no larger than twice the misclassification rate of the optimal classifier. Then, we show that under a separability condition, the proposed algorithm is equivalent to a randomized linear regression approach which naturally results in a robust feature selection method selecting a subset of features having the maximum worst case HGR correlation with the target variable. Our theoretical upper-bound is similar to the recent Discrete Chebyshev Classifier (DCC) approach [2], while the proposed algorithm has significant computational advantages since it only requires solving a least square optimization problem. Finally, we numerically compare our proposed algorithm with the DCC classifier and show that the proposed algorithm results in better misclassification rate over various UCI data repository datasets.

The process of dynamic state estimation (filtering) based on point process observations is in general intractable. Numerical sampling techniques are often practically useful, but lead to limited conceptual insight about optimal encoding/decoding strategies, which are of significant relevance to Computational Neuroscience. We develop an analytically tractable Bayesian approximation to optimal filtering based on point process observations, which allows us to introduce distributional assumptions about sensory cell properties, that greatly facilitates the analysis of optimal encoding in situations deviating from common assumptions of uniform coding. The analytic framework leads to insights which are difficult to obtain from numerical algorithms, and is consistent with experiments about the distribution of tuning curve centers. Interestingly, we find that the information gained from the absence of spikes may be crucial to performance.

Both learning and inference tasks on Bayesian networks are NP-hard in general. Bounded tree-width Bayesian networks have recently received a lot of attention as a way to circumvent this complexity issue; however, while inference on bounded tree-width networks is tractable, the learning problem remains NP-hard even for tree-width~2. In this paper, we propose bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks as an alternative to bounded tree-width networks. In particular, we show that both inference and learning can be done in polynomial time for any fixed vertex cover number bound $k$, in contrast to the general and bounded tree-width cases; on the other hand, we also show that learning problem is W[1]-hard in parameter $k$. Furthermore, we give an alternative way to learn bounded vertex cover number Bayesian networks using integer linear programming (ILP), and show this is feasible in practice.

Super-resolution is the problem of recovering a superposition of point sources using bandlimited measurements, which may be corrupted with noise. This signal processing problem arises in numerous imaging problems, ranging from astronomy to biology to spectroscopy, where it is common to take (coarse) Fourier measurements of an object. Of particular interest is in obtaining estimation procedures which are robust to noise, with the following desirable statistical and computational properties: we seek to use coarse Fourier measurements (bounded by some \emph{cutoff frequency}); we hope to take a (quantifiably) small number of measurements; we desire our algorithm to run quickly. Suppose we have $k$ point sources in $d$ dimensions, where the points are separated by at least $\Delta$ from each other (in Euclidean distance). This work provides an algorithm with the following favorable guarantees:1. The algorithm uses Fourier measurements, whose frequencies are bounded by $O(1/\Delta)$ (up to log factors). Previous algorithms require a \emph{cutoff frequency} which may be as large as $\Omega(\sqrt{d}/\Delta)$.2. The number of measurements taken by and the computational complexity of our algorithm are bounded by a polynomial in both the number of points $k$ and the dimension $d$, with \emph{no} dependence on the separation $\Delta$. In contrast, previous algorithms depended inverse polynomially on the minimal separation and exponentially on the dimension for both of these quantities.Our estimation procedure itself is simple: we take random bandlimited measurements (as opposed to taking an exponential number of measurements on the hyper-grid). Furthermore, our analysis and algorithm are elementary (based on concentration bounds of sampling and singular value decomposition).

Symmetry breaking is a technique for speeding up propositional satisfiability testing byadding constraints to the theory that restrict the search space while preserving satisfiability.In this work, we extend symmetry breaking to the problem of model finding in weighted and unweighted relational theories, a class of problems that includes MAP inference in Markov Logic and similar statistical-relational languages. We introduce term symmetries, which are induced by an evidence set and extend to symmetries over a relational theory. We provide the important special case of term equivalent symmetries, showing that such symmetries can be found in low-degree polynomial time. We show how to break an exponential number of these symmetries with added constraints whose number is linear in the size of the domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these techniques through experiments in two relational domains. We also discuss the connections between relational symmetry breaking and work on lifted inference in statistical-relational reasoning.