We consider the sequential Bayesian optimization problem with bandit feedback, adopting a formulation that allows for the reward function to vary with time. We model the reward function using a Gaussian process whose evolution obeys a simple Markov model. We introduce two natural extensions of the classical Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm. The first, R-GP-UCB, resets GP-UCB at regular intervals. The second, TV-GP-UCB, instead forgets about old data in a smooth fashion. Our main contribution comprises of novel regret bounds for these algorithms, providing an explicit characterization of the trade-off between the time horizon and the rate at which the function varies. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms on both synthetic and real data, and we find the gradual forgetting of TV-GP-UCB to perform favorably compared to the sharp resetting of R-GP-UCB. Moreover, both algorithms significantly outperform classical GP-UCB, since it treats stale and fresh data equally.

We study the problem of recovering a hidden community of cardinality $K$ from an $n \times n$ symmetric data matrix $A$, where for distinct indices $i,j$, $A_{ij} \sim P$ if $i, j$ both belong to the community and $A_{ij} \sim Q$ otherwise, for two known probability distributions $P$ and $Q$ depending on $n$. If $P={\rm Bern}(p)$ and $Q={\rm Bern}(q)$ with $p>q$, it reduces to the problem of finding a densely-connected $K$-subgraph planted in a large Erd\"os-R\'enyi graph; if $P=\mathcal{N}(\mu,1)$ and $Q=\mathcal{N}(0,1)$ with $\mu>0$, it corresponds to the problem of locating a $K \times K$ principal submatrix of elevated means in a large Gaussian random matrix. We focus on two types of asymptotic recovery guarantees as $n \to \infty$: (1) weak recovery: expected number of classification errors is $o(K)$; (2) exact recovery: probability of classifying all indices correctly converges to one. Under mild assumptions on $P$ and $Q$, and allowing the community size to scale sublinearly with $n$, we derive a set of sufficient conditions and a set of necessary conditions for recovery, which are asymptotically tight with sharp constants. The results hold in particular for the Gaussian case, and for the case of bounded log likelihood ratio, including the Bernoulli case whenever $\frac{p}{q}$ and $\frac{1-p}{1-q}$ are bounded away from zero and infinity. An important algorithmic implication is that, whenever exact recovery is information theoretically possible, any algorithm that provides weak recovery when the community size is concentrated near $K$ can be upgraded to achieve exact recovery in linear additional time by a simple voting procedure.

We present a system for online monitoring of maritime activity over streaming positions from numerous vessels sailing at sea. It employs an online tracking module for detecting important changes in the evolving trajectory of each vessel across time, and thus can incrementally retain concise, yet reliable summaries of its recent movement. In addition, thanks to its complex event recognition module, this system can also offer instant notification to marine authorities regarding emergency situations, such as risk of collisions, suspicious moves in protected zones, or package picking at open sea. Not only did our extensive tests validate the performance, efficiency, and robustness of the system against scalable volumes of real-world and synthetically enlarged datasets, but its deployment against online feeds from vessels has also confirmed its capabilities for effective, real-time maritime surveillance.

For many complex diseases, there is a wide variety of ways in which an individual can manifest the disease. The challenge of personalized medicine is to develop tools that can accurately predict the trajectory of an individual's disease, which can in turn enable clinicians to optimize treatments. We represent an individual's disease trajectory as a continuous-valued continuous-time function describing the severity of the disease over time. We propose a hierarchical latent variable model that individualizes predictions of disease trajectories. This model shares statistical strength across observations at different resolutions--the population, subpopulation and the individual level. We describe an algorithm for learning population and subpopulation parameters offline, and an online procedure for dynamically learning individual-specific parameters. Finally, we validate our model on the task of predicting the course of interstitial lung disease, a leading cause of death among patients with the autoimmune disease scleroderma. We compare our approach against state-of-the-art and demonstrate significant improvements in predictive accuracy.

In recent years there has been an increased interest in statistical analysis of data with multiple types of relations among a set of entities. Such multi-relational data can be represented as multi-layer graphs where the set of vertices represents the entities and multiple types of edges represent the different relations among them. For community detection in multi-layer graphs, we consider two random graph models, the multi-layer stochastic blockmodel (MLSBM) and a model with a restricted parameter space, the restricted multi-layer stochastic blockmodel (RMLSBM). We derive consistency results for community assignments of the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) in both models where MLSBM is assumed to be the true model, and either the number of nodes or the number of types of edges or both grow. We compare MLEs in the two models with other baseline approaches, such as separate modeling of layers, aggregating the layers and majority voting. RMLSBM is shown to have advantage over MLSBM when either the growth rate of the number of communities is high or the growth rate of the average degree of the component graphs in the multi-graph is low. We also derive minimax rates of error and sharp thresholds for achieving consistency of community detection in both models, which are then used to compare the multi-layer models with a baseline model, the aggregate stochastic block model. The simulation studies and real data applications confirm the superior performance of the multi-layer approaches in comparison to the baseline procedures.

Models for which the likelihood function can be evaluated only up to a parameter-dependent unknown normalising constant, such as Markov random field models, are used widely in computer science, statistical physics, spatial statistics, and network analysis. However, Bayesian analysis of these models using standard Monte Carlo methods is not possible due to the intractability of their likelihood functions. Several methods that permit exact, or close to exact, simulation from the posterior distribution have recently been developed. However, estimating the evidence and Bayes' factors (BFs) for these models remains challenging in general. This paper describes new random weight importance sampling and sequential Monte Carlo methods for estimating BFs that use simulation to circumvent the evaluation of the intractable likelihood, and compares them to existing methods. In some cases we observe an advantage in the use of biased weight estimates. An initial investigation into the theoretical and empirical properties of this class of methods is presented. Some support for the use of biased estimates is presented, but we advocate caution in the use of such estimates.

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) work well on large datasets. But labelled data is hard to collect, and in some applications larger amounts of data are not available. The problem then is how to use CNNs with small data -- as CNNs overfit quickly. We present an efficient Bayesian CNN, offering better robustness to over-fitting on small data than traditional approaches. This is by placing a probability distribution over the CNN's kernels. We approximate our model's intractable posterior with Bernoulli variational distributions, requiring no additional model parameters. On the theoretical side, we cast dropout network training as approximate inference in Bayesian neural networks. This allows us to implement our model using existing tools in deep learning with no increase in time complexity, while highlighting a negative result in the field. We show a considerable improvement in classification accuracy compared to standard techniques and improve on published state-of-the-art results for CIFAR-10.

Narendra-Shapiro (NS) algorithms are bandit-type algorithms that have been introduced in the sixties (with a view to applications in Psychology or learning automata), whose convergence has been intensively studied in the stochastic algorithm literature. In this paper, we adress the following question: are the Narendra-Shapiro (NS) bandit algorithms competitive from a \textit{regret} point of view? In our main result, we show that some competitive bounds can be obtained for such algorithms in their penalized version (introduced in \cite{Lamberton_Pages}). More precisely, up to an over-penalization modification, the pseudo-regret $\bar{R}_n$ related to the penalized two-armed bandit algorithm is uniformly bounded by $C \sqrt{n}$ (where $C$ is made explicit in the paper). \noindent We also generalize existing convergence and rates of convergence results to the multi-armed case of the over-penalized bandit algorithm, including the convergence toward the invariant measure of a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP) after a suitable renormalization. Finally, ergodic properties of this PDMP are given in the multi-armed case.

Dyadic Data Prediction (DDP) is an important problem in many research areas. This paper develops a novel fully Bayesian nonparametric framework which integrates two popular and complementary approaches, discrete mixed membership modeling and continuous latent factor modeling into a unified Heterogeneous Matrix Factorization~(HeMF) model, which can predict the unobserved dyadics accurately. The HeMF can determine the number of communities automatically and exploit the latent linear structure for each bicluster efficiently. We propose a Variational Bayesian method to estimate the parameters and missing data. We further develop a novel online learning approach for Variational inference and use it for the online learning of HeMF, which can efficiently cope with the important large-scale DDP problem. We evaluate the performance of our method on the EachMoive, MovieLens and Netflix Prize collaborative filtering datasets. The experiment shows that, our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on all benchmarks. Compared with Stochastic Gradient Method (SGD), our online learning approach achieves significant improvement on the estimation accuracy and robustness.

A generalized linear model (GLM) is a flexible extension of linear regression which allows the response or the output to be a nonlinear function of the input via an activation function. In other words, in a GLM, the linear regression of the input is passed through an activation function to generate the response. GLMs unify popular frameworks such as logistic regression and Poisson regression with linear regression. At the same time, they can be learnt with guarantees using simple iterative methods (Kakade et al., 2011). In many scenarios, however, GLMs may be too simplistic, and mixtures of GLMs can be much more effective since they combine the expressive power of latent variables with the predictive capabilities of the GLM. Mixtures of GLMs have widespread applicability including object recognition (Quattoni et al., 2004), human action recognition (Wang and Mori, 2009), syntactic parsing (Petrov and Klein, 2007), and machine translation (Liang et al., 2006). Traditionally, mixture models are learnt through heuristics such as expectation maximization (EM) (Jordan and Jacobs, 1994; Xu et al., 1995) or variational Bayes (Bishop and Svensen, 2003). However, these methods can converge to spurious local optima and have slow convergence rates for high dimensional models. In contrast, we employ a method-of-moments approach for guaranteed learning of mixtures of GLMs.