The construction of a meaningful graph plays a crucial role in the success of many graph-based representations and algorithms for handling structured data, especially in the emerging field of graph signal processing. However, a meaningful graph is not always readily available from the data, nor easy to define depending on the application domain. In particular, it is often desirable in graph signal processing applications that a graph is chosen such that the data admit certain regularity or smoothness on the graph. In this paper, we address the problem of learning graph Laplacians, which is equivalent to learning graph topologies, such that the input data form graph signals with smooth variations on the resulting topology. To this end, we adopt a factor analysis model for the graph signals and impose a Gaussian probabilistic prior on the latent variables that control these signals. We show that the Gaussian prior leads to an efficient representation that favors the smoothness property of the graph signals. We then propose an algorithm for learning graphs that enforces such property and is based on minimizing the variations of the signals on the learned graph. Experiments on both synthetic and real world data demonstrate that the proposed graph learning framework can efficiently infer meaningful graph topologies from signal observations under the smoothness prior.

We propose the segmented iHMM (siHMM), a hierarchical infinite hidden Markov model (iHMM) that supports a simple, efficient inference scheme. The siHMM is well suited to segmentation problems, where the goal is to identify points at which a time series transitions from one relatively stable regime to a new regime. Conventional iHMMs often struggle with such problems, since they have no mechanism for distinguishing between high- and low-level dynamics. Hierarchical HMMs (HHMMs) can do better, but they require much more complex and expensive inference algorithms. The siHMM retains the simplicity and efficiency of the iHMM, but outperforms it on a variety of segmentation problems, achieving performance that matches or exceeds that of a more complicated HHMM.

Dynamic topic models (DTMs) are very effective in discovering topics and capturing their evolution trends in time series data. To do posterior inference of DTMs, existing methods are all batch algorithms that scan the full dataset before each update of the model and make inexact variational approximations with mean-field assumptions. Due to a lack of a more scalable inference algorithm, despite the usefulness, DTMs have not captured large topic dynamics. This paper fills this research void, and presents a fast and parallelizable inference algorithm using Gibbs Sampling with Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics that does not make any unwarranted assumptions. We also present a Metropolis-Hastings based $O(1)$ sampler for topic assignments for each word token. In a distributed environment, our algorithm requires very little communication between workers during sampling (almost embarrassingly parallel) and scales up to large-scale applications. We are able to learn the largest Dynamic Topic Model to our knowledge, and learned the dynamics of 1,000 topics from 2.6 million documents in less than half an hour, and our empirical results show that our algorithm is not only orders of magnitude faster than the baselines but also achieves lower perplexity.

Which song will Smith listen to next? Which restaurant will Alice go to tomorrow? Which product will John click next? These applications have in common the prediction of user trajectories that are in a constant state of flux over a hidden network (e.g. website links, geographic location). What users are doing now may be unrelated to what they will be doing in an hour from now. Mindful of these challenges we propose TribeFlow, a method designed to cope with the complex challenges of learning personalized predictive models of non-stationary, transient, and time-heterogeneous user trajectories. TribeFlow is a general method that can perform next product recommendation, next song recommendation, next location prediction, and general arbitrary-length user trajectory prediction without domain-specific knowledge. TribeFlow is more accurate and up to 413x faster than top competitors.

Supervised topic models simultaneously model the latent topic structure of large collections of documents and a response variable associated with each document. Existing inference methods are based on variational approximation or Monte Carlo sampling, which often suffers from the local minimum defect. Spectral methods have been applied to learn unsupervised topic models, such as latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA), with provable guarantees. This paper investigates the possibility of applying spectral methods to recover the parameters of supervised LDA (sLDA). We first present a two-stage spectral method, which recovers the parameters of LDA followed by a power update method to recover the regression model parameters. Then, we further present a single-phase spectral algorithm to jointly recover the topic distribution matrix as well as the regression weights. Our spectral algorithms are provably correct and computationally efficient. We prove a sample complexity bound for each algorithm and subsequently derive a sufficient condition for the identifiability of sLDA. Thorough experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets verify the theory and demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the spectral algorithms. In fact, our results on a large-scale review rating dataset demonstrate that our single-phase spectral algorithm alone gets comparable or even better performance than state-of-the-art methods, while previous work on spectral methods has rarely reported such promising performance.

The fused lasso penalizes a loss function by the $L_1$ norm for both the regression coefficients and their successive differences to encourage sparsity of both. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian generalized fused lasso modeling based on a normal-exponential-gamma (NEG) prior distribution. The NEG prior is assumed into the difference of successive regression coefficients. The proposed method enables us to construct a more versatile sparse model than the ordinary fused lasso by using a flexible regularization term. We also propose a sparse fused algorithm to produce exact sparse solutions. Simulation studies and real data analyses show that the proposed method has superior performance to the ordinary fused lasso.

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that constructs an approximation to the true likelihood based on the similarity between the observed and simulated data as measured by a predefined set of summary statistics. Although the choice of appropriate problem-specific summary statistics crucially influences the quality of the likelihood approximation and hence also the quality of the posterior sample in ABC, there are only few principled general-purpose approaches to the selection or construction of such summary statistics. In this paper, we develop a novel framework for this task using kernel-based distribution regression. We model the functional relationship between data distributions and the optimal choice (with respect to a loss function) of summary statistics using kernel-based distribution regression. We show that our approach can be implemented in a computationally and statistically efficient way using the random Fourier features framework for large-scale kernel learning. In addition to that, our framework shows superior performance when compared to related methods on toy and real-world problems.

Early detection and precise characterization of emerging topics in text streams can be highly useful in applications such as timely and targeted public health interventions and discovering evolving regional business trends. Many methods have been proposed for detecting emerging events in text streams using topic modeling. However, these methods have numerous shortcomings that make them unsuitable for rapid detection of locally emerging events on massive text streams. In this paper, we describe Semantic Scan (SS) that has been developed specifically to overcome these shortcomings in detecting new spatially compact events in text streams. Semantic Scan integrates novel contrastive topic modeling with online document assignment and principled likelihood ratio-based spatial scanning to identify emerging events with unexpected patterns of keywords hidden in text streams. This enables more timely and accurate detection and characterization of anomalous, spatially localized emerging events. Semantic Scan does not require manual intervention or labeled training data, and is robust to noise in real-world text data since it identifies anomalous text patterns that occur in a cluster of new documents rather than an anomaly in a single new document. We compare Semantic Scan to alternative state-of-the-art methods such as Topics over Time, Online LDA, and Labeled LDA on two real-world tasks: (i) a disease surveillance task monitoring free-text Emergency Department chief complaints in Allegheny County, and (ii) an emerging business trend detection task based on Yelp reviews. On both tasks, we find that Semantic Scan provides significantly better event detection and characterization accuracy than competing approaches, while providing up to an order of magnitude speedup.

Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multi-layer hierarchical generalisations of Gaussian processes (GPs) and are formally equivalent to neural networks with multiple, infinitely wide hidden layers. DGPs are nonparametric probabilistic models and as such are arguably more flexible, have a greater capacity to generalise, and provide better calibrated uncertainty estimates than alternative deep models. This paper develops a new approximate Bayesian learning scheme that enables DGPs to be applied to a range of medium to large scale regression problems for the first time. The new method uses an approximate Expectation Propagation procedure and a novel and efficient extension of the probabilistic backpropagation algorithm for learning. We evaluate the new method for non-linear regression on eleven real-world datasets, showing that it always outperforms GP regression and is almost always better than state-of-the-art deterministic and sampling-based approximate inference methods for Bayesian neural networks. As a by-product, this work provides a comprehensive analysis of six approximate Bayesian methods for training neural networks.

Extracting the underlying low-dimensional space where high-dimensional signals often reside has long been at the center of numerous algorithms in the signal processing and machine learning literature during the past few decades. At the same time, working with incomplete (partly observed) large scale datasets has recently been commonplace for diverse reasons. This so called {\it big data era} we are currently living calls for devising online subspace learning algorithms that can suitably handle incomplete data. Their envisaged objective is to {\it recursively} estimate the unknown subspace by processing streaming data sequentially, thus reducing computational complexity, while obviating the need for storing the whole dataset in memory. In this paper, an online variational Bayes subspace learning algorithm from partial observations is presented. To account for the unawareness of the true rank of the subspace, commonly met in practice, low-rankness is explicitly imposed on the sought subspace data matrix by exploiting sparse Bayesian learning principles. Moreover, sparsity, {\it simultaneously} to low-rankness, is favored on the subspace matrix by the sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian scheme that is adopted. In doing so, the proposed algorithm becomes adept in dealing with applications whereby the underlying subspace may be also sparse, as, e.g., in sparse dictionary learning problems. As shown, the new subspace tracking scheme outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts in terms of estimation accuracy, in a variety of experiments conducted on simulated and real data.