Learning Graphical Models
PoE World Compositional World Modeling with Products of Experts
Learning how the world works is central to building AI agents that can adapt to complex environments. Traditional world models based on deep learning demand vast amounts of training data, and do not flexibly update their knowledge from sparse observations. Recent advances in program synthesis using Large Language Models (LLMs) give an alternate approach which learns world models represented as source code, supporting strong generalization from little data. To date, application of program-structured world models remains limited to natural language and grid-world domains. We introduce a novel program synthesis method for effectively modeling complex, non-gridworld domains by representing a world model as an exponentially-weighted product of programmatic experts (PoE-World) synthesized by LLMs. We show that this approach can learn complex, stochastic world models from just a few observations. We evaluate the learned world models by embedding them in a model-based planning agent, demonstrating efficient performance and generalization to unseen levels on Atari's Pong and Montezuma's Revenge.
Large Language Bayes
Many domain experts do not have the time or expertise to write formal Bayesian models. This paper takes an informal problem description as input, and combines a large language model and a probabilistic programming language to define a joint distribution over formal models, latent variables, and data. A posterior over latent variables follows by conditioning on observed data and integrating over formal models. This presents a challenging inference problem. We suggest an inference recipe that amounts to generating many formal models from the large language model, performing approximate inference on each, and then doing a weighted average. This is justified and analyzed as a combination of self-normalized importance sampling, MCMC, and importance-weighted variational inference. Experimentally, this produces sensible predictions from only data and an informal problem description, without the need to specify a formal model.
Solving and Learning Partial Differential Equations with Variational Q-Exponential Processes
Solving and learning partial differential equations (PDEs) lies at the core of physicsinformed machine learning. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference and finite element approaches, are rooted in domain-specific techniques and often lack scalability. Recent advances have introduced neural networks and Gaussian processes (GPs) as flexible tools for automating PDE solving and incorporating physical knowledge into learning frameworks. While GPs offer tractable predictive distributions and a principled probabilistic foundation, they may be suboptimal in capturing complex behaviors such as sharp transitions or non-smooth dynamics. To address this limitation, we propose the use of the q-exponential process (Q-EP), a recently developed generalization of GPs designed to better handle data with abrupt changes and to more accurately model derivative information. We advocate for Q-EP as a superior alternative to GPs in solving PDEs and associated inverse problems. Leveraging sparse variational inference, our method enables principled uncertainty quantification - a capability not naturally afforded by neural network-based approaches. Through a series of experiments, including the Eikonal equation, Burgers' equation, and an inverse Darcy flow problem, we demonstrate that the variational Q-EP method consistently yields more accurate solutions while providing meaningful uncertainty estimates.
Collaborative Geometry-Aware Multi-Solution Optimizer for Efficient Model Fine-Tuning
We propose a framework grounded in gradient flow theory and informed by geometric structure that provides multiple diverse solutions for a given task, ensuring collaborative results that enhance performance and adaptability across different tasks. This framework enables flexibility, allowing for efficient task-specific fine-tuning while preserving the knowledge of the pre-trained foundation models. Extensive experiments across transfer learning, few-shot learning, and domain generalization show that our proposed approach consistently outperforms existing Bayesian methods, delivering strong performance with affordable computational overhead and offering a practical solution by updating only a small subset of parameters. The code for our method is at https://github.com/anh-ntv/GAC-MSO
ACramér-von Mises Approach to Incentivizing Truthful Data Sharing
Modern data marketplaces and data sharing consortia increasingly rely on incentive mechanisms to encourage agents to contribute data. However, schemes that reward agents based on the quantity of submitted data are vulnerable to manipulation, as agents may submit fabricated or low-quality data to inflate their rewards. Prior work has proposed comparing each agent's data against others' to promote honesty: when others contribute genuine data, the best way to minimize discrepancy is to do the same. Yet prior implementations of this idea rely on very strong assumptions about the data distribution (e.g.
Flexible Language Modeling in Continuous Space with Transformer-based Autoregressive Flows
Autoregressive models have driven remarkable progress in language modeling. Their foundational reliance on discrete tokens, unidirectional context, and singlepass decoding, while central to their success, also inspires the exploration of a design space that could offer new axes of modeling flexibility. In this work, we explore an alternative paradigm, shifting language modeling from a discrete token space to a continuous latent space. We propose a novel framework TarFlowLM, that employs transformer-based autoregressive normalizing flows [73] to model these continuous representations. This approach unlocks substantial flexibility, enabling the construction of models that can capture global bi-directional context through stacked, alternating-direction autoregressive transformations, support block-wise generation with flexible token patch sizes, and facilitate a hierarchical multi-pass generation process. We further propose new mixture-based coupling transformations designed to capture complex dependencies within the latent space shaped by discrete data, and demonstrate theoretical connections to conventional discrete autoregressive models. Extensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks demonstrate strong likelihood performance and highlight the flexible modeling capabilities inherent in our framework.
VAGEN: Reinforcing World Model Reasoning for Multi-Turn VLMAgents
A major challenge in training VLM agents, compared to LLM agents, is that states shift from simple texts to complex visual observations, which introduces partial observability and demands robust world modeling. We ask: can VLM agents build internal world models through explicit visual state reasoning? In this work, we architecturally enforce and reward VLM agent's reasoning process via reinforcement learning (RL), formulating the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). We demonstrate that structuring agent's reasoning into StateEstimation("what is the current state?") and TransitionModeling ("what is next?") is critical by studying five reasoning strategies. Investigating how agents should ground visual states and represent these internal beliefs, we reveal the optimal representations are task-dependent: Natural Language excels at capturing semantic relationships for general tasks, while Structured formats are essential for high-precision manipulation. These insights motivate our approach to reward shaping and credit assignment. We leverage a WorldModelingReward to densely rewards the agent's turn-by-turn state predictions, while our Bi-Level General Advantage Estimation (Bi-Level GAE) enables turn-aware credit assignment. Through such world model reasoning, we enable a 3B model to achieve performance of 0.82 on a set of five diverse agent tasks, nearly 3 improvement over its untrained counterpart (0.21) and surpassing proprietary reasoning models like GPT-5 (0.75), Gemini 2.5 Pro (0.67) and Claude 4.5 (0.62). All experiments are supported by our VAGEN framework, a scalable system for training and analyzing multi-turn VLM agents across diverse visual environments.
On the Relation between Rectified Flows and Optimal Transport
This paper investigates the connections between rectified flows, flow matching, and optimal transport. Flow matching is a recent approach to learning generative models by estimating velocity fields that guide transformations from a source to a target distribution. Rectified flow matching aims to straighten the learned transport paths, yielding more direct flows between distributions. Our first contribution is a set of invariance properties of rectified flows and explicit velocity fields. In addition, we also provide explicit constructions and analysis in the Gaussian (not necessarily independent) and Gaussian mixture settings and study the relation to optimal transport. Our second contribution addresses recent claims suggesting that rectified flows, when constrained such that the learned velocity field is a gradient, can yield (asymptotically) solutions to optimal transport problems. We study the existence of solutions for this problem and demonstrate that they only relate to optimal transport under assumptions that are significantly stronger than those previously acknowledged. In particular, we present several counterexamples that invalidate earlier equivalence results in the literature, and we argue that enforcing a gradient constraint on rectified flows is, in general, not a reliable method for computing optimal transport maps.
AFinite Sample Analysis of Distributional TD Learning with Linear Function Approximation
In this paper, we study the finite-sample statistical rates of distributional temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation. The aim of distributional TD learning is to estimate the return distribution of a discounted Markov decision process for a given policy π. Previous works on statistical analysis of distributional TD learning mainly focus on the tabular case. In contrast, we first consider the linear function approximation setting and derive sharp finite-sample rates. Our theoretical results demonstrate that the sample complexity of linear distributional TD learning matches that of classic linear TD learning. This implies that, with linear function approximation, learning the full distribution of the return from streaming data is no more difficult than learning its expectation (value function). To derive tight sample complexity bounds, we conduct a fine-grained analysis of the linear-categorical Bellman equation and employ the exponential stability arguments for products of random matrices. Our results provide new insights into the statistical efficiency of distributional reinforcement learning algorithms.
Certifying Deep Network Risks and Individual Predictions with PAC-Bayes Loss via Localized Priors
As machine learning increasingly relies on large, opaque foundation models powering generative and agentic AI, deploying these systems in safety-critical contexts demands rigorous generalization guarantees beyond training data. PAC-Bayes theory provides principled certificates linking training performance to generalization risk, yet existing approaches remain impractical: simple theoretical priors yield vacuous bounds, while data-dependent priors require costly second-stage training or introduce bias. To bridge this critical gap, we propose a localized PAC-Bayes prior--a structured, computationally efficient prior softly concentrated around parameters favored during standard training. By integrating this localized prior directly into the standard training objective, we deliver practically tight generalization certificates with minimal workflow disruption. Under standard neural tangent kernel assumptions, our bound shrinks as networks widen and datasets grow, becoming negligible in realistic regimes. Empirically, we demonstrate tight generalization certificates on tasks ranging from image classification (MNIST, CIFAR, ImageNet) and NLP fine-tuning (GLUE) to semantic segmentation (Cityscapes), typically within three percentage points of test error at ImageNet scale. Additionally, our approach provides rigorous guarantees for individual predictions, selective rejection of uncertain predictions, adversarial robustness, and accurate calibration--directly addressing key requirements for trustworthy AI deployment.