Nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) provides an appealing framework for unsupervised feature learning, but the models proposed so far are not identifiable. Here, we first propose a new intuitive principle of unsupervised deep learning from time series which uses the nonstationary structure of the data. Our learning principle, time-contrastive learning (TCL), finds a representation which allows optimal discrimination of time segments (windows). Surprisingly, we show how TCL can be related to a nonlinear ICA model, when ICA is redefined to include temporal nonstationarities. In particular, we show that TCL combined with linear ICA estimates the nonlinear ICA model up to point-wise transformations of the sources, and this solution is unique --- thus providing the first identifiability result for nonlinear ICA which is rigorous, constructive, as well as very general.

We propose a new method for blind system identification. Resorting to a Gaussian regression framework, we model the impulse response of the unknown linear system as a realization of a Gaussian process. The structure of the covariance matrix (or kernel) of such a process is given by the stable spline kernel, which has been recently introduced for system identification purposes and depends on an unknown hyperparameter. We assume that the input can be linearly described by few parameters. We estimate these parameters, together with the kernel hyperparameter and the noise variance, using an empirical Bayes approach. The related optimization problem is efficiently solved with a novel iterative scheme based on the Expectation-Maximization method. In particular, we show that each iteration consists of a set of simple update rules. We show, through some numerical experiments, very promising performance of the proposed method.

Recent developments in system identification have brought attention to regularized kernel-based methods, where, adopting the recently introduced stable spline kernel, prior information on the unknown process is enforced. This reduces the variance of the estimates and thus makes kernel-based methods particularly attractive when few input-output data samples are available. In such cases however, the influence of the system initial conditions may have a significant impact on the output dynamics. In this paper, we specifically address this point. We propose three methods that deal with the estimation of initial conditions using different types of information. The methods consist in various mixed maximum likelihood--a posteriori estimators which estimate the initial conditions and tune the hyperparameters characterizing the stable spline kernel. To solve the related optimization problems, we resort to the expectation-maximization method, showing that the solutions can be attained by iterating among simple update steps. Numerical experiments show the advantages, in terms of accuracy in reconstructing the system impulse response, of the proposed strategies, compared to other kernel-based schemes not accounting for the effect initial conditions.

We utilize copulas to constitute a unified framework for constructing and optimizing variational proposals in hierarchical Bayesian models. For models with continuous and non-Gaussian hidden variables, we propose a semiparametric and automated variational Gaussian copula approach, in which the parametric Gaussian copula family is able to preserve multivariate posterior dependence, and the nonparametric transformations based on Bernstein polynomials provide ample flexibility in characterizing the univariate marginal posteriors.

We present some arguments why existing methods for representing agents fall short in applications crucial to artificial life. Using a thought experiment involving a fictitious dynamical systems model of the biosphere we argue that the metabolism, motility, and the concept of counterfactual variation should be compatible with any agent representation in dynamical systems. We then propose an information-theoretic notion of \emph{integrated spatiotemporal patterns} which we believe can serve as the basic building block of an agent definition. We argue that these patterns are capable of solving the problems mentioned before. We also test this in some preliminary experiments.

Exponential-family harmoniums (EFHs), which extend restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) from Bernoulli random variables to other exponential families (Welling et al., 2005), are generative models that can be trained with unsupervised-learning techniques, like contrastive divergence (Hinton et al. 2006; Hinton, 2002), as density estimators for static data. Methods for extending RBMs--and likewise EFHs--to data with temporal dependencies have been proposed previously (Sutskever and Hinton, 2007; Sutskever et al., 2009), the learning procedure being validated by qualitative assessment of the generative model. Here we propose and justify, from a very different perspective, an alternative training procedure, proving sufficient conditions for optimal inference under that procedure. The resulting algorithm can be learned with only forward passes through the data--backprop-through-time is not required, as in previous approaches. The proof exploits a recent result about information retention in density estimators (Makin and Sabes, 2015), and applies it to a "recurrent EFH" (rEFH) by induction. Finally, we demonstrate optimality by simulation, testing the rEFH: (1) as a filter on training data generated with a linear dynamical system, the position of which is noisily reported by a population of "neurons" with Poisson-distributed spike counts; and (2) with the qualitative experiments proposed by Sutskever et al. (2009).

The following interview is one of many included in the report. As part of our ongoing series of interviews surveying the frontiers of machine intelligence, I recently interviewed Brendan Frey. Frey is a co-founder of Deep Genomics, a professor at the University of Toronto and a co-founder of its Machine Learning Group, a senior fellow of the Neural Computation program at the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research, and a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. His work focuses on using machine learning to understand the genome and to realize new possibilities in genomic medicine. Brendan Frey: I completed my Ph.D. with Geoff Hinton in 1997.

Big data applications, such as medical imaging and genetics, typically generate datasets that consist of few observations n on many more variables p, a scenario that we denote as p>>n. Traditional data processing methods are often insufficient for extracting information out of big data. This calls for the development of new algorithms that can deal with the size, complexity, and the special structure of such datasets. In this paper, we consider the problem of classifying p>>n data and propose a classification method based on linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Traditional LDA depends on the covariance estimate of the data, but when p>>n the sample covariance estimate is singular. The proposed method estimates the covariance by using a sparse version of noisy principal component analysis (nPCA). The use of sparsity in this setting aims at automatically selecting variables that are relevant for classification. In experiments, the new method is compared to state-of-the art methods for big data problems using both simulated datasets and imaging genetics datasets.

Serious answer: I tend to dive deep into a particular algorithm...learning the math better, getting used to different applications of it, etc. So that's where I usually spend my time - along with the advice /u/Jigsus offered...focusing my learning around the kinds of needs I'm working on problem-/data-wise. Sounds like survival analysis, so I try to find as much material focused around that. On the flip side, I haven't done anything like sentiment analysis, so I know next to nothing about Naive Bayes text classification. I tend to read over a rather wide selection of ML and statistics blogs, so I'm not entirely unclear about such things, it's just that I don't spend a copious amount of time other than playing with a toy dataset now and then.

Random forest model using Lending Club public dataset shows opportunity to improve adjusted return by 2.75% Arimo recently performed a study using a public dataset provided by Lending Club with the goal of showing how machine learning could improve investor returns. To do this we used the PredictiveEngine component of our Data Intelligence Platform, which provides the ability to easily build a variety of predictive machine learning models which scale transparently when deployed on distributed parallel computing platforms. Lending Club is an online peer-to-peer lending company that connects borrowers with investors who have capital to lend. When a loan application is submitted by a borrower, Lending Club reviews and decides whether to offer a loan at a risk-adjusted rate or to reject the application. As of the 3rd quarter of 2015, more than 12 billion in loans have been issued through Lending Club.