The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

We reframe linear dimensionality reduction as a problem of Bayesian inference on matrix manifolds. This natural paradigm extends the Bayesian framework to dimensionality reduction tasks in higher dimensions with simpler models at greater speeds. Here an orthogonal basis is treated as a single point on a manifold and is associated with a linear subspace on which observations vary maximally. Throughout this paper, we employ the Grassmann and Stiefel manifolds for various dimensionality reduction problems, explore the connection between the two manifolds, and use Hybrid Monte Carlo for posterior sampling on the Grassmannian for the first time. We delineate in which situations either manifold should be considered. Further, matrix manifold models are used to yield scientific insight in the context of cognitive neuroscience, and we conclude that our methods are suitable for basic inference as well as accurate prediction.

In this work, we consider compressed sensing reconstruction from $M$ measurements of $K$-sparse structured signals which do not possess a writable correlation model. Assuming that a generative statistical model, such as a Boltzmann machine, can be trained in an unsupervised manner on example signals, we demonstrate how this signal model can be used within a Bayesian framework of signal reconstruction. By deriving a message-passing inference for general distribution restricted Boltzmann machines, we are able to integrate these inferred signal models into approximate message passing for compressed sensing reconstruction. Finally, we show for the MNIST dataset that this approach can be very effective, even for $M < K$.

Naive Bayes' is a supervised machine learning classification algorithm based off of Bayes' Theorem. If you don't remember Bayes' Theorem, here it is: Seriously though, if you need a refresher, I have a lesson on it here: Bayes' Theorem The naive part comes from the idea that the probability of each column is computed alone. They are "naive" to what the other columns contain. Let's look at the data. We have 3 columns – Score, ExtraCir, Accepted.

Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We reveal the relationship between Hawkes process's impact function and its Granger causality graph. Specifically, our model represents impact functions using a series of basis functions and recovers the Granger causality graph via group sparsity of the impact functions' coefficients. We propose an effective learning algorithm combining a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) with a sparse-group-lasso (SGL) regularizer. Additionally, the flexibility of our model allows to incorporate the clustering structure event types into learning framework. We analyze our learning algorithm and propose an adaptive procedure to select basis functions. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our method can learn the Granger causality graph and the triggering patterns of the Hawkes processes simultaneously.

The environment is partially observable and will never be fully observable, due to a lack of information. Does anyone know of any models suitable for learning such a value function?

Real music signals are highly variable, yet they have strong statistical structure. Prior information about the underlying physical mechanisms by which sounds are generated and rules by which complex sound structure is constructed (notes, chords, a complete musical score), can be naturally unified using Bayesian modelling techniques. Typically algorithms for Automatic Music Transcription independently carry out individual tasks such as multiple-F0 detection and beat tracking. The challenge remains to perform joint estimation of all parameters. We present a Bayesian approach for modelling music audio, and content analysis. The proposed methodology based on Gaussian processes seeks joint estimation of multiple music concepts by incorporating into the kernel prior information about non-stationary behaviour, dynamics, and rich spectral content present in the modelled music signal. We illustrate the benefits of this approach via two tasks: pitch estimation, and inferring missing segments in a polyphonic audio recording.

Modern proximal and stochastic gradient descent (SGD) methods are believed to efficiently minimize large composite objective functions, but such methods have two algorithmic challenges: (1) a lack of fast or justified stop conditions, and (2) sensitivity to the objective function's conditioning. In response to the first challenge, modern proximal and SGD methods guarantee convergence only after multiple epochs, but such a guarantee renders proximal and SGD methods infeasible when the number of component functions is very large or infinite. In response to the second challenge, second order SGD methods have been developed, but they are marred by the complexity of their analysis. In this work, we address these challenges on the limited, but important, linear regression problem by introducing and analyzing a second order proximal/SGD method based on Kalman Filtering (kSGD). Through our analysis, we show kSGD is asymptotically optimal, develop a fast algorithm for very large, infinite or streaming data sources with a justified stop condition, prove that kSGD is insensitive to the problem's conditioning, and develop a unique approach for analyzing the complex second order dynamics. Our theoretical results are supported by numerical experiments on three regression problems (linear, nonparametric wavelet, and logistic) using three large publicly available datasets. Moreover, our analysis and experiments lay a foundation for embedding kSGD in multiple epoch algorithms, extending kSGD to other problem classes, and developing parallel and low memory kSGD implementations.

Gibbs sampling is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling technique that iteratively samples variables from their conditional distributions. There are two common scan orders for the variables: random scan and systematic scan. Due to the benefits of locality in hardware, systematic scan is commonly used, even though most statistical guarantees are only for random scan. While it has been conjectured that the mixing times of random scan and systematic scan do not differ by more than a logarithmic factor, we show by counterexample that this is not the case, and we prove that that the mixing times do not differ by more than a polynomial factor under mild conditions. To prove these relative bounds, we introduce a method of augmenting the state space to study systematic scan using conductance.

We develop Square Root Graphical Models (SQR), a novel class of parametric graphical models that provides multivariate generalizations of univariate exponential family distributions. Previous multivariate graphical models [Yang et al. 2015] did not allow positive dependencies for the exponential and Poisson generalizations. However, in many real-world datasets, variables clearly have positive dependencies. For example, the airport delay time in New York---modeled as an exponential distribution---is positively related to the delay time in Boston. With this motivation, we give an example of our model class derived from the univariate exponential distribution that allows for almost arbitrary positive and negative dependencies with only a mild condition on the parameter matrix---a condition akin to the positive definiteness of the Gaussian covariance matrix. Our Poisson generalization allows for both positive and negative dependencies without any constraints on the parameter values. We also develop parameter estimation methods using node-wise regressions with $\ell_1$ regularization and likelihood approximation methods using sampling. Finally, we demonstrate our exponential generalization on a synthetic dataset and a real-world dataset of airport delay times.