Learning Graphical Models
A Variational Approximations-DIC Rubric for Parameter Estimation and Mixture Model Selection Within a Family Setting
Subedi, Sanjeena, McNicholas, Paul D.
Mixture model-based clustering has become an increasingly popular data analysis technique since its introduction fifty years ago, and is now commonly utilized within the family setting. Families of mixture models arise when the component parameters, usually the component covariance matrices, are decomposed and a number of constraints are imposed. Within the family setting, we need to choose the member of the family, i.e., the appropriate covariance structure, in addition to the number of mixture components. To date, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) has proved most effective for model selection, and the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is usually used for parameter estimation. To date, this EM-BIC rubric has monopolized the literature on families of mixture models. We deviate from this rubric, using variational Bayes approximations for parameter estimation and the deviance information criterion for model selection. The variational Bayes approach alleviates some of the computational complexities associated with the EM algorithm by constructing a tight lower bound on the complex marginal likelihood and maximizing this lower bound by minimizing the associated Kullback-Leibler divergence. We use this approach on the most famous family of Gaussian mixture models within the literature and real and simulated data are used to compare our approach to the EM-BIC rubric.
A gentle introduction to Naïve Bayes classification using R
Now that we have a model, we can do some predicting. We do this by feeding our test data into our model and comparing the predicted party affiliations with the known ones. The latter is done via the wonderfully named confusion matrix – a table in which true and predicted values for each of the predicted classes are displayed in a matrix format.
Efficient Bayesian Learning in Social Networks with Gaussian Estimators
Mossel, Elchanan, Olsman, Noah, Tamuz, Omer
We consider a group of Bayesian agents who try to estimate a state of the world $\theta$ through interaction on a social network. Each agent $v$ initially receives a private measurement of $\theta$: a number $S_v$ picked from a Gaussian distribution with mean $\theta$ and standard deviation one. Then, in each discrete time iteration, each reveals its estimate of $\theta$ to its neighbors, and, observing its neighbors' actions, updates its belief using Bayes' Law. This process aggregates information efficiently, in the sense that all the agents converge to the belief that they would have, had they access to all the private measurements. We show that this process is computationally efficient, so that each agent's calculation can be easily carried out. We also show that on any graph the process converges after at most $2N \cdot D$ steps, where $N$ is the number of agents and $D$ is the diameter of the network. Finally, we show that on trees and on distance transitive-graphs the process converges after $D$ steps, and that it preserves privacy, so that agents learn very little about the private signal of most other agents, despite the efficient aggregation of information. Our results extend those in an unpublished manuscript of the first and last authors.
Robust and scalable Bayesian analysis of spatial neural tuning function data
Rad, Kamiar Rahnama, Machado, Timothy A., Paninski, Liam
A common analytical problem in neuroscience is the interpretation of neural activity with respect to sensory input or behavioral output. This is typically achieved by regressing measured neural activity against known stimuli or behavioral variables to produce a "tuning function" for each neuron. Unfortunately, because this approach handles neurons individually, it cannot take advantage of simultaneous measurements from spatially adjacent neurons that often have similar tuning properties. On the other hand, sharing information between adjacent neurons can errantly degrade estimates of tuning functions across space if there are sharp discontinuities in tuning between nearby neurons. In this paper, we develop a computationally efficient block Gibbs sampler that effectively pools information between neurons to de-noise tuning function estimates while simultaneously preserving sharp discontinuities that might exist in the organization of tuning across space. This method is fully Bayesian and its computational cost per iteration scales sub-quadratically with total parameter dimensionality. We demonstrate the robustness and scalability of this approach by applying it to both real and synthetic datasets. In particular, an application to data from the spinal cord illustrates that the proposed methods can dramatically decrease the experimental time required to accurately estimate tuning functions.
Modeling Group Dynamics Using Probabilistic Tensor Decompositions
Li, Lin, Swami, Ananthram, Scaglione, Anna
In this paper, we consider the problem of modeling discrete social network data and learning the underlying group dynamics. The goal is to develop probabilistic profiles of large collections of data while preserving the essential temporal relationships that provide insights for various applications of interest. For example, in social network analysis, we want to analyze relationships between social agents and their behaviors over time and on various social media sites (i.e., Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Google, etc.). In web advertising analysis, we want to analyze the relationships between customers and the types of products they buy from different shopping sites to capture customers' buying behaviors and learn the intrinsic factors that effect their buying decision process. In the study of scientific collaboration, using co-authorship networks from multiple journals on related subjects, one can analyze relationships between subjects and authors.
Association Discovery and Diagnosis of Alzheimers Disease with Bayesian Multiview Learning
Xu, Zenglin, Zhe, Shandian, Qi, Yuan, Yu, Peng
The analysis and diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) can be based on genetic variations, e.g., single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and phenotypic traits, e.g., Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) features. We consider two important and related tasks: i) to select genetic and phenotypical markers for AD diagnosis and ii) to identify associations between genetic and phenotypical data. While previous studies treat these two tasks separately, they are tightly coupled because underlying associations between genetic variations and phenotypical features contain the biological basis for a disease. Here we present a new sparse Bayesian approach for joint association study and disease diagnosis. In this approach, common latent features are extracted from different data sources based on sparse projection matrices and used to predict multiple disease severity levels; in return, the disease status can guide the discovery of relationships between data sources. The sparse projection matrices not only reveal interactions between data sources but also select groups of biomarkers related to the disease. Moreover, to take advantage of the linkage disequilibrium (LD) measuring the non-random association of alleles, we incorporate a graph Laplacian type of prior in the model. To learn the model from data, we develop an efficient variational inference algorithm. Analysis on an imaging genetics dataset for the study of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) indicates that our model identifies biologically meaningful associations between genetic variations and MRI features, and achieves significantly higher accuracy for predicting ordinal AD stages than the competing methods.
Structured Prediction Energy Networks
Belanger, David, McCallum, Andrew
We introduce structured prediction energy networks (SPENs), a flexible framework for structured prediction. A deep architecture is used to define an energy function of candidate labels, and then predictions are produced by using back-propagation to iteratively optimize the energy with respect to the labels. This deep architecture captures dependencies between labels that would lead to intractable graphical models, and performs structure learning by automatically learning discriminative features of the structured output. One natural application of our technique is multi-label classification, which traditionally has required strict prior assumptions about the interactions between labels to ensure tractable learning and prediction. We are able to apply SPENs to multi-label problems with substantially larger label sets than previous applications of structured prediction, while modeling high-order interactions using minimal structural assumptions. Overall, deep learning provides remarkable tools for learning features of the inputs to a prediction problem, and this work extends these techniques to learning features of structured outputs. Our experiments provide impressive performance on a variety of benchmark multi-label classification tasks, demonstrate that our technique can be used to provide interpretable structure learning, and illuminate fundamental trade-offs between feed-forward and iterative structured prediction.
The combinatorial structure of beta negative binomial processes
Heaukulani, Creighton, Roy, Daniel M.
We characterize the combinatorial structure of conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of negative binomial processes with a common beta process base measure. In Bayesian nonparametric applications, such processes have served as models for latent multisets of features underlying data. Analogously, random subsets arise from conditionally-i.i.d. sequences of Bernoulli processes with a common beta process base measure, in which case the combinatorial structure is described by the Indian buffet process. Our results give a count analogue of the Indian buffet process, which we call a negative binomial Indian buffet process. As an intermediate step toward this goal, we provide a construction for the beta negative binomial process that avoids a representation of the underlying beta process base measure. We describe the key Markov kernels needed to use a NB-IBP representation in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm targeting a posterior distribution.
Grouping the executables to detect malware with high accuracy
Sahay, Sanjay K., Sharma, Ashu
The metamorphic malware variants with the same malicious behavior (family), can obfuscate themselves to look different from each other. This variation in structure leads to a huge signature database for traditional signature matching techniques to detect them. In order to effective and efficient detection of malware in large amounts of executables, we need to partition these files into groups which can identify their respective families. In addition, the grouping criteria should be chosen such a way that, it can also be applied to unknown files encounter on computers for classification. This paper discusses the study of malware and benign executables in groups to detect unknown malware with high accuracy. We studied sizes of malware generated by three popular second generation malware (metamorphic malware) creator kits viz. G2, PS-MPC and NGVCK, and observed that the size variation in any two generated malware from same kit is not much. Hence, we grouped the executables on the basis of malware sizes by using Optimal k-Means Clustering algorithm and used these obtained groups to select promising features for training (Random forest, J48, LMT, FT and NBT) classifiers to detect variants of malware or unknown malware. We find that detection of malware on the basis of their respected file sizes gives accuracy up to 99.11% from the classifiers.