Many natural systems, such as neurons firing in the brain or basketball teams traversing a court, give rise to time series data with complex, nonlinear dynamics. We can gain insight into these systems by decomposing the data into segments that are each explained by simpler dynamic units. Building on switching linear dynamical systems (SLDS), we present a new model class that not only discovers these dynamical units, but also explains how their switching behavior depends on observations or continuous latent states. These "recurrent" switching linear dynamical systems provide further insight by discovering the conditions under which each unit is deployed, something that traditional SLDS models fail to do. We leverage recent algorithmic advances in approximate inference to make Bayesian inference in these models easy, fast, and scalable.

Neural circuits contain heterogeneous groups of neurons that differ in type, location, connectivity, and basic response properties. However, traditional methods for dimensionality reduction and clustering are ill-suited to recovering the structure underlying the organization of neural circuits. In particular, they do not take advantage of the rich temporal dependencies in multi-neuron recordings and fail to account for the noise in neural spike trains. Here we describe new tools for inferring latent structure from simultaneously recorded spike train data using a hierarchical extension of a multi-neuron point process model commonly known as the generalized linear model (GLM). Our approach combines the GLM with flexible graph-theoretic priors governing the relationship between latent features and neural connectivity patterns. Fully Bayesian inference via P\'olya-gamma augmentation of the resulting model allows us to classify neurons and infer latent dimensions of circuit organization from correlated spike trains. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with applications to synthetic data and multi-neuron recordings in primate retina, revealing latent patterns of neural types and locations from spike trains alone.

Interfacing a kinetic action of a person to an action of a machine system is an important research topic in many application areas. One of the key factors for intimate human-machine interaction is the ability of the control algorithm to detect and classify different user commands with shortest possible latency, thus making a highly correlated link between cause and effect. In our research, we focused on the task of mapping user kinematic actions into sound samples. The presented methodology relies on the wireless sensor nodes equipped with inertial measurement units and the real-time algorithm dedicated for early detection and classification of a variety of movements/gestures performed by a user. The core algorithm is based on the approximate Bayesian inference of Vector Autoregressive Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models (VAR-HHMM), where models database is derived from the set of motion gestures. The performance of the algorithm was compared with an online version of the K-nearest neighbours (KNN) algorithm, where we used offline expert based classification as the benchmark. In almost all of the evaluation metrics (e.g. confusion matrix, recall and precision scores) the VAR-HHMM algorithm outperformed KNN. Furthermore, the VAR-HHMM algorithm, in some cases, achieved faster movement onset detection compared with the offline standard. The proposed concept, although envisioned for movement-to-sound application, could be implemented in other human-machine interfaces.

We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the posterior embedding estimator, which is faster and has comparable performance to the squared regularization in kernel Bayes' rule. This regularization coincides with a former thresholding approach used in kernel POMDPs whose consistency remains to be established. Our theoretical work solves this open problem and provides consistency analysis in regression settings. Based on our optimizational formulation, we propose a flexible Bayesian posterior regularization framework which for the first time enables us to put regularization at the distribution level. We apply this method to nonparametric state-space filtering tasks with extremely nonlinear dynamics and show performance gains over all other baselines.

The Machine learning report evaluates technologies and applications in terms of their business impact, adoption rate and maturity level to help users decide where and when to invest. The Predictive Analytics Scores below – ordered on Forecasted Future Needs and Demand from High to Low – shows you Machine learning's Predictive Analysis. The link takes you to a corresponding product in The Art of Service's store to get started. The Art of Service's predictive model results enable businesses to discover and apply the most profitable technologies and applications, attracting the most profitable customers, and therefore helping maximize value from their investments. The Predictive Analytics algorithm evaluates and scores technologies and applications.

The following is a list of, mostly free, machine learning online courses for beginners. First, and arguably the most popular course on this list, Machine Learning provides a broad introduction to machine learning, data mining, and statistical pattern recognition. The course will also draw from numerous case studies and applications, so that you'll also learn how to apply learning algorithms to building smart robots (perception, control), text understanding (web search, anti-spam), computer vision, medical informatics, audio, database mining, and other areas. The course is 11 weeks long and averages a 4.9/5 user rating, currently. It is free to take, but you can pay $79 for a certificate upon course completion.

Today, we can store and process so much data that we have nearly captured reality; no more sampling biases/ errors or related issues - this is my definition of Big Data; not tera or peta bytes! If you have measured the entire population (or close to it) and not sample just a small fraction, resulting data is BIG Data! There ARE subtle technical differences but let us just call it "Analytics", at least in business applications! When you hear "dynamics", time always comes to mind first but it is only one of the many possibilities. Dynamics could be over any independent variable!

The dream of thinking machines goes back centuries, at least to Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz, in the 17th century. Leibniz (right) helped invent mechanical calculators, independently of Isaac Newton developed the integral calculus, and had a lifelong fascination with reducing thinking to calculation. His Mathesis Universalis was a vision of universal science made possible by a mathematical language more precise than natural languages, like English. The Limits of Modern AI: A Story In the 18th Century the Enlightenment philosopher and proto-psychologist Étienne Bonnot de Condillac imagined a statue outwardly appearing like a man and also with what he called "the inward organization." In an example of supreme armchair speculation, Condillac imagined pouring facts--bits of knowledge--into its head, wondering when intelligence would emerge. Condillac's musings drew inspiration from the early mechanical philosophy of Thomas Hobbes, who had famously declared that thinking was nothing but ...

We present a fast variational Bayesian algorithm for performing non-negative matrix factorisation and tri-factorisation. We show that our approach achieves faster convergence per iteration and timestep (wall-clock) than Gibbs sampling and non-probabilistic approaches, and do not require additional samples to estimate the posterior. We show that in particular for matrix tri-factorisation convergence is difficult, but our variational Bayesian approach offers a fast solution, allowing the tri-factorisation approach to be used more effectively.

Predictive modeling is increasingly being employed to assist human decision-makers. One purported advantage of replacing human judgment with computer models in high stakes settings-- such as sentencing, hiring, policing, college admissions, and parole decisions-- is the perceived "neutrality" of computers. It is argued that because computer models do not hold personal prejudice, the predictions they produce will be equally free from prejudice. There is growing recognition that employing algorithms does not remove the potential for bias, and can even amplify it, since training data were inevitably generated by a process that is itself biased. In this paper, we provide a probabilistic definition of algorithmic bias. We propose a method to remove bias from predictive models by removing all information regarding protected variables from the permitted training data. Unlike previous work in this area, our framework is general enough to accommodate arbitrary data types, e.g. binary, continuous, etc. Motivated by models currently in use in the criminal justice system that inform decisions on pre-trial release and paroling, we apply our proposed method to a dataset on the criminal histories of individuals at the time of sentencing to produce "race-neutral" predictions of re-arrest. In the process, we demonstrate that the most common approach to creating "race-neutral" models-- omitting race as a covariate-- still results in racially disparate predictions. We then demonstrate that the application of our proposed method to these data removes racial disparities from predictions with minimal impact on predictive accuracy.