Optical flow refers to the visual motion observed between two consecutive images. Since the degree of freedom is typically much larger than the constraints imposed by the image observations, the straightforward formulation of optical flow inference is an ill-posed problem. By setting some type of additional "regularity" constraints, classical approaches formulate a well-posed optical flow inference problem in the form of a parameterized set of variational equations. In this work we build a mathematical connection, focused on optical flow methods, between classical variational optical flow approaches and Bayesian statistical inversion. A classical optical flow solution is in fact identical to a maximum a posteriori estimator under the assumptions of linear model with additive independent Gaussian noise and a Gaussian prior distribution. Unlike classical approaches, the statistical inversion approach to optical flow estimation not only allows for "point" estimates, but also provides a distribution of solutions which can be used for ensemble estimation and in particular uncertainty quantification.

Low-variance gradient estimation is crucial for learning directed graphical models parameterized by neural networks, where the reparameterization trick is widely used for those with continuous variables. While this technique gives low-variance gradient estimates, it has not been directly applicable to discrete variables, the sampling of which inherently requires discontinuous operations. We argue that the discontinuity can be bypassed by marginalizing out the variable of interest, which results in a new reparameterization trick for discrete variables. This reparameterization greatly reduces the variance, which is understood by regarding the method as an application of common random numbers to the estimation. The resulting estimator is theoretically guaranteed to have a variance not larger than that of the likelihood-ratio method with the optimal input-dependent baseline. We give empirical results for variational learning of sigmoid belief networks.

In many common interactive scenarios, participants lack information about other participants, and specifically about the preferences of other participants. In this work, we model an extreme case of incomplete information, which we term games with type ambiguity, where a participant lacks even information enabling him to form a belief on the preferences of others. Under type ambiguity, one cannot analyze the scenario using the commonly used Bayesian framework, and therefore he needs to model the participants using a different decision model. In this work, we present the ${\rm MINthenMAX}$ decision model under ambiguity. This model is a refinement of Wald's MiniMax principle, which we show to be too coarse for games with type ambiguity. We characterize ${\rm MINthenMAX}$ as the finest refinement of the MiniMax principle that satisfies three properties we claim are necessary for games with type ambiguity. This prior-less approach we present her also follows the common practice in computer science of worst-case analysis. Finally, we define and analyze the corresponding equilibrium concept assuming all players follow ${\rm MINthenMAX}$. We demonstrate this equilibrium by applying it to two common economic scenarios: coordination games and bilateral trade. We show that in both scenarios, an equilibrium in pure strategies always exists and we analyze the equilibria.

In the last few months, I have had several people contact me about their enthusiasm for venturing into the world of data science and using Machine Learning (ML) techniques to probe statistical regularities and build impeccable data-driven products. However, I have observed that some actually lack the necessary mathematical intuition and framework to get useful results. This is the main reason I decided to write this blog post. Recently, there has been an upsurge in the availability of many easy-to-use machine and deep learning packages such as scikit-learn, Weka, Tensorflow, R-caret etc. Machine Learning theory is a field that intersects statistical, probabilistic, computer science and algorithmic aspects arising from learning iteratively from data and finding hidden insights which can be used to build intelligent applications. Despite the immense possibilities of Machine and Deep Learning, a thorough mathematical understanding of many of these techniques is necessary for a good grasp of the inner workings of the algorithms and getting good results.

I have a little secret: I don't like the terminology, notation, and style of writing in statistics. I find it unnecessarily complicated. This shows up when trying to read about Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Take, for example, the abstract to the Markov Chain Monte Carlo article in the Encyclopedia of Biostatistics. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a technique for estimating by simulation the expectation of a statistic in a complex model. Successive random selections form a Markov chain, the stationary distribution of which is the target distribution. It is particularly useful for the evaluation of posterior distributions in complex Bayesian models. In the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm, items are selected from an arbitrary "proposal" distribution and are retained or not according to an acceptance rule. The Gibbs sampler is a special case in which the proposal distributions are conditional distributions of single components of a vector parameter. Various special cases and applications are considered. I can only vaguely understand what the author is saying here (and really only because I know ahead of time what MCMC is). There are certainly references to more advanced things than what I'm going to cover in this post.

Recent progress in artificial intelligence (AI) has renewed interest in building systems that learn and think like people. Many advances have come from using deep neural networks trained end-to-end in tasks such as object recognition, video games, and board games, achieving performance that equals or even beats humans in some respects. Despite their biological inspiration and performance achievements, these systems differ from human intelligence in crucial ways. We review progress in cognitive science suggesting that truly human-like learning and thinking machines will have to reach beyond current engineering trends in both what they learn, and how they learn it. Specifically, we argue that these machines should (a) build causal models of the world that support explanation and understanding, rather than merely solving pattern recognition problems; (b) ground learning in intuitive theories of physics and psychology, to support and enrich the knowledge that is learned; and (c) harness compositionality and learning-to-learn to rapidly acquire and generalize knowledge to new tasks and situations. We suggest concrete challenges and promising routes towards these goals that can combine the strengths of recent neural network advances with more structured cognitive models.

Tensor decomposition is an important technique for capturing the high-order interactions among multiway data. Multi-linear tensor composition methods, such as the Tucker decomposition and the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC (CP), assume that the complex interactions among objects are multi-linear, and are thus insufficient to represent nonlinear relationships in data. Another assumption of these methods is that a predefined rank should be known. However, the rank of tensors is hard to estimate, especially for cases with missing values. To address these issues, we design a Bayesian generative model for tensor decomposition. Different from the traditional Bayesian methods, the high-order interactions of tensor entries are modeled with variational auto-encoder. The proposed model takes advantages of Neural Networks and nonparametric Bayesian models, by replacing the multi-linear product in traditional Bayesian tensor decomposition with a complex nonlinear function (via Neural Networks) whose parameters can be learned from data. Experimental results on synthetic data and real-world chemometrics tensor data have demonstrated that our new model can achieve significantly higher prediction performance than the state-of-the-art tensor decomposition approaches.

Inference methods are often formulated as variational approximations: these approximations allow easy evaluation of statistics by marginalization or linear response, but these estimates can be inconsistent. We show that by introducing constraints on covariance, one can ensure consistency of linear response with the variational parameters, and in so doing inference of marginal probability distributions is improved. For the Bethe approximation and its generalizations, improvements are achieved with simple choices of the constraints. The approximations are presented as variational frameworks; iterative procedures related to message passing are provided for finding the minima.

We introduce a semi-parametric Bayesian model for survival analysis. The model is centred on a parametric baseline hazard, and uses a Gaussian process to model variations away from it nonparametrically, as well as dependence on covariates. As opposed to many other methods in survival analysis, our framework does not impose unnecessary constraints in the hazard rate or in the survival function. Furthermore, our model handles left, right and interval censoring mechanisms common in survival analysis. We propose a MCMC algorithm to perform inference and an approximation scheme based on random Fourier features to make computations faster. We report experimental results on synthetic and real data, showing that our model performs better than competing models such as Cox proportional hazards, ANOVA-DDP and random survival forests.

Genetic sequence data are well described by hidden Markov models (HMMs) in which latent states correspond to clusters of similar mutation patterns. Theory from statistical genetics suggests that these HMMs are nonhomogeneous (their transition probabilities vary along the chromosome) and have large support for self transitions. We develop a new nonparametric model of genetic sequence data, based on the hierarchical Dirichlet process, which supports these self transitions and nonhomogeneity. Our model provides a parameterization of the genetic process that is more parsimonious than other more general nonparametric models which have previously been applied to population genetics. We provide truncation-free MCMC inference for our model using a new auxiliary sampling scheme for Bayesian nonparametric HMMs. In a series of experiments on male X chromosome data from the Thousand Genomes Project and also on data simulated from a population bottleneck we show the benefits of our model over the popular finite model fastPHASE, which can itself be seen as a parametric truncation of our model. We find that the number of HMM states found by our model is correlated with the time to the most recent common ancestor in population bottlenecks. This work demonstrates the flexibility of Bayesian nonparametrics applied to large and complex genetic data.