We develop a scalable, computationally efficient method for the task of energy disaggregation for home appliance monitoring. In this problem the goal is to estimate the energy consumption of each appliance over time based on the total energy-consumption signal of a household. The current state of the art is to model the problem as inference in factorial HMMs, and use quadratic programming to find an approximate solution to the resulting quadratic integer program. Here we take a more principled approach, better suited to integer programming problems, and find an approximate optimum by combining convex semidefinite relaxations randomized rounding, as well as a scalable ADMM method that exploits the special structure of the resulting semidefinite program. Simulation results both in synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method.

Several works have shown that deep CNN classifiers can be easily transferred across datasets, e.g. the transfer of a CNN trained to recognize objects on ImageNET to an object detector on Pascal VOC. Less clear, however, is the ability of CNNs to transfer knowledge across tasks. A common example of such transfer is the problem of scene classification that should leverage localized object detections to recognize holistic visual concepts. While this problem is currently addressed with Fisher vector representations, these are now shown ineffective for the high-dimensional and highly non-linear features extracted by modern CNNs. It is argued that this is mostly due to the reliance on a model, the Gaussian mixture of diagonal covariances, which has a very limited ability to capture the second order statistics of CNN features. This problem is addressed by the adoption of a better model, the mixture of factor analyzers (MFA), which approximates the non-linear data manifold by a collection of local subspaces. The Fisher score with respect to the MFA (MFA-FS) is derived and proposed as an image representation for holistic image classifiers. Extensive experiments show that the MFA-FS has state of the art performance for object-to-scene transfer and this transfer actually outperforms the training of a scene CNN from a large scene dataset. The two representations are also shown to be complementary, in the sense that their combination outperforms each of the representations by itself. When combined, they produce a state of the art scene classifier.

Neuroscience experiments often require training animals to perform tasks designed to elicit various sensory, cognitive, and motor behaviors. Training typically involves a series of gradual adjustments of stimulus conditions and rewards in order to bring about learning. However, training protocols are usually hand-designed, relying on a combination of intuition, guesswork, and trial-and-error, and often require weeks or months to achieve a desired level of task performance. Here we combine ideas from reinforcement learning and adaptive optimal experimental design to formulate methods for adaptive optimal training of animal behavior. Our work addresses two intriguing problems at once: first, it seeks to infer the learning rules underlying an animal's behavioral changes during training; second, it seeks to exploit these rules to select stimuli that will maximize the rate of learning toward a desired objective. We develop and test these methods using data collected from rats during training on a two-interval sensory discrimination task. We show that we can accurately infer the parameters of a policy-gradient-based learning algorithm that describes how the animal's internal model of the task evolves over the course of training. We then formulate a theory for optimal training, which involves selecting sequences of stimuli that will drive the animal's internal policy toward a desired location in the parameter space. Simulations show that our method can in theory provide a substantial speedup over standard training methods. We feel these results will hold considerable theoretical and practical implications both for researchers in reinforcement learning and for experimentalists seeking to train animals.

People often learn from others' demonstrations, and classic inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) algorithms have brought us closer to realizing this capacity in machines. In contrast, teaching by demonstration has been less well studied computationally. Here, we develop a novel Bayesian model for teaching by demonstration. Stark differences arise when demonstrators are intentionally teaching a task versus simply performing a task. In two experiments, we show that human participants systematically modify their teaching behavior consistent with the predictions of our model. Further, we show that even standard IRL algorithms benefit when learning from behaviors that are intentionally pedagogical. We conclude by discussing IRL algorithms that can take advantage of intentional pedagogy.

We study the problem of reconstructing a mixture of Markov chains from the trajectories generated by random walks through the state space. Under mild non-degeneracy conditions, we show that we can uniquely reconstruct the underlying chains by only considering trajectories of length three, which represent triples of states. Our algorithm is spectral in nature, and is easy to implement.

Active learning enables us to reduce the annotation cost by adaptively selecting unlabeled instances to be labeled. For pool-based active learning, several effective methods with theoretical guarantees have been developed through maximizing some utility function satisfying adaptive submodularity. In contrast, there have been few methods for stream-based active learning based on adaptive submodularity. In this paper, we propose a new class of utility functions, policy-adaptive submodular functions, and prove this class includes many existing adaptive submodular functions appearing in real world problems. We provide a general framework based on policy-adaptive submodularity that makes it possible to convert existing pool-based methods to stream-based methods and give theoretical guarantees on their performance. In addition we empirically demonstrate their effectiveness comparing with existing heuristics on common benchmark datasets.

We develop a Bayesian model for decision-making under time pressure with endogenous information acquisition. In our model, the decision-maker decides when to observe (costly) information by sampling an underlying continuous-time stochastic process (time series) that conveys information about the potential occurrence/non-occurrence of an adverse event which will terminate the decision-making process. In her attempt to predict the occurrence of the adverse event, the decision-maker follows a policy that determines when to acquire information from the time series (continuation), and when to stop acquiring information and make a final prediction (stopping). We show that the optimal policy has a "rendezvous" structure, i.e. a structure in which whenever a new information sample is gathered from the time series, the optimal "date" for acquiring the next sample becomes computable. The optimal interval between two information samples balances a trade-off between the decision maker’s "surprise", i.e. the drift in her posterior belief after observing new information, and "suspense", i.e. the probability that the adverse event occurs in the time interval between two information samples. Moreover, we characterize the continuation and stopping regions in the decision-maker’s state-space, and show that they depend not only on the decision-maker’s beliefs, but also on the "context", i.e. the current realization of the time series.

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian method for demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target statistics. Inference is approximated by the Newton-Raphson algorithm, reduced to linear-time Kalman smoothing, which allows us to operate on several orders of magnitude larger problems than previous related work. In a study on large real-world sales datasets, our method outperforms competing approaches on fast and medium moving items.

We introduce a general and simple structural design called "Multiplicative Integration" (MI)to improve recurrent neural networks (RNNs). MI changes the way in which information from difference sources flows and is integrated in the computational buildingblock of an RNN, while introducing almost no extra parameters. The new structure can be easily embedded into many popular RNN models, including LSTMsand GRUs. We empirically analyze its learning behaviour and conduct evaluations on several tasks using different RNN models. Our experimental results demonstrate that Multiplicative Integration can provide a substantial performance boost over many of the existing RNN models.

The softmax representation of probabilities for categorical variables plays a prominent role in modern machine learning with numerous applications in areas such as large scale classification, neural language modeling and recommendation systems. However, softmax estimation is very expensive for large scale inference because of the high cost associated with computing the normalizing constant. Here, we introduce an efficient approximation to softmax probabilities which takes the form of a rigorous lower bound on the exact probability. This bound is expressed as a product over pairwise probabilities and it leads to scalable estimation based on stochastic optimization. It allows us to perform doubly stochastic estimation by subsampling both training instances and class labels. We show that the new bound has interesting theoretical properties and we demonstrate its use in classification problems.