Graphical models with latent count variables arise in a number of fields. Standard exact inference techniques such as variable elimination and belief propagation do not apply to these models because the latent variables have countably infinite support. As a result, approximations such as truncation or MCMC are employed. We present the first exact inference algorithms for a class of models with latent count variables by developing a novel representation of countably infinite factors as probability generating functions, and then performing variable elimination with generating functions. Our approach is exact, runs in pseudo-polynomial time, and is much faster than existing approximate techniques. It leads to better parameter estimates for problems in population ecology by avoiding error introduced by approximate likelihood computations.

We give a novel formal theoretical framework for unsupervised learning with two distinctive characteristics. First, it does not assume any generative model and based on a worst-case performance metric. Second, it is comparative, namely performance is measured with respect to a given hypothesis class. This allows to avoid known computational hardness results and improper algorithms based on convex relaxations. We show how several families of unsupervised learning models, which were previously only analyzed under probabilistic assumptions and are otherwise provably intractable, can be efficiently learned in our framework by convex optimization.

In recent years, a rapidly increasing number of applications in practice requires solving non-convex objectives, like training neural networks, learning graphical models, maximum likelihood estimation etc. Though simple heuristics such as gradient descent with very few modifications tend to work well, theoretical understanding is very weak. We consider possibly the most natural class of non-convex functions where one could hope to obtain provable guarantees: functions that are ``approximately convex'', i.e. functions $\tf: \Real^d \to \Real$ for which there exists a \emph{convex function} $f$ such that for all $x$, $|\tf(x) - f(x)| \le \errnoise$ for a fixed value $\errnoise$. We then want to minimize $\tf$, i.e. output a point $\tx$ such that $\tf(\tx) \le \min_{x} \tf(x) + \err$. It is quite natural to conjecture that for fixed $\err$, the problem gets harder for larger $\errnoise$, however, the exact dependency of $\err$ and $\errnoise$ is not known. In this paper, we strengthen the known \emph{information theoretic} lower bounds on the trade-off between $\err$ and $\errnoise$ substantially, and exhibit an algorithm that matches these lower bounds for a large class of convex bodies.

Random projections constitute a simple, yet effective technique for dimensionality reduction with applications in learning and search problems. In the present paper, we consider the problem of estimating cosine similarities when the projected data undergo scalar quantization to $b$ bits. We here argue that the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is a principled approach to deal with the non-linearity resulting from quantization, and subsequently study its computational and statistical properties. A specific focus is on the on the trade-off between bit depth and the number of projections given a fixed budget of bits for storage or transmission. Along the way, we also touch upon the existence of a qualitative counterpart to the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma in the presence of quantization.

Nonlinear independent component analysis (ICA) provides an appealing framework for unsupervised feature learning, but the models proposed so far are not identifiable. Here, we first propose a new intuitive principle of unsupervised deep learning from time series which uses the nonstationary structure of the data. Our learning principle, time-contrastive learning (TCL), finds a representation which allows optimal discrimination of time segments (windows). Surprisingly, we show how TCL can be related to a nonlinear ICA model, when ICA is redefined to include temporal nonstationarities. In particular, we show that TCL combined with linear ICA estimates the nonlinear ICA model up to point-wise transformations of the sources, and this solution is unique --- thus providing the first identifiability result for nonlinear ICA which is rigorous, constructive, as well as very general.

Despite the success of kernel-based nonparametric methods, kernel selection still requires considerable expertise, and is often described as a "black art." We present a sophisticated method for automatically searching for an appropriate kernel from an infinite space of potential choices. Previous efforts in this direction have focused on traversing a kernel grammar, only examining the data via computation of marginal likelihood. Our proposed search method is based on Bayesian optimization in model space, where we reason about model evidence as a function to be maximized. We explicitly reason about the data distribution and how it induces similarity between potential model choices in terms of the explanations they can offer for observed data. In this light, we construct a novel kernel between models to explain a given dataset. Our method is capable of finding a model that explains a given dataset well without any human assistance, often with fewer computations of model evidence than previous approaches, a claim we demonstrate empirically.

We investigate a subclass of exponential family graphical models of which the sufficient statistics are defined by arbitrary additive forms. We propose two $\ell_{2,1}$-norm regularized maximum likelihood estimators to learn the model parameters from i.i.d. samples. The first one is a joint MLE estimator which estimates all the parameters simultaneously. The second one is a node-wise conditional MLE estimator which estimates the parameters for each node individually. For both estimators, statistical analysis shows that under mild conditions the extra flexibility gained by the additive exponential family models comes at almost no cost of statistical efficiency. A Monte-Carlo approximation method is developed to efficiently optimize the proposed estimators. The advantages of our estimators over Gaussian graphical models and Nonparanormal estimators are demonstrated on synthetic and real data sets.

We consider an agent's uncertainty about its environment and the problem of generalizing this uncertainty across states. Specifically, we focus on the problem of exploration in non-tabular reinforcement learning. Drawing inspiration from the intrinsic motivation literature, we use density models to measure uncertainty, and propose a novel algorithm for deriving a pseudo-count from an arbitrary density model. This technique enables us to generalize count-based exploration algorithms to the non-tabular case. We apply our ideas to Atari 2600 games, providing sensible pseudo-counts from raw pixels. We transform these pseudo-counts into exploration bonuses and obtain significantly improved exploration in a number of hard games, including the infamously difficult Montezuma's Revenge.

We consider tractable representations of probability distributions and the polytime operations they support. In particular, we consider a recently proposed arithmetic circuit representation, the Probabilistic Sentential Decision Diagram (PSDD). We show that PSDD supports a polytime multiplication operator, while they do not support a polytime operator for summing-out variables. A polytime multiplication operator make PSDDs suitable for a broader class of applications compared to arithmetic circuits, which do not in general support multiplication. As one example, we show that PSDD multiplication leads to a very simple but effective compilation algorithm for probabilistic graphical models: represent each model factor as a PSDD, and then multiply them.

Variational methods that rely on a recognition network to approximate the posterior of directed graphical models offer better inference and learning than previous methods. Recent advances that exploit the capacity and flexibility in this approach have expanded what kinds of models can be trained. However, as a proposal for the posterior, the capacity of the recognition network is limited, which can constrain the representational power of the generative model and increase the variance of Monte Carlo estimates. To address these issues, we introduce an iterative refinement procedure for improving the approximate posterior of the recognition network and show that training with the refined posterior is competitive with state-of-the-art methods. The advantages of refinement are further evident in an increased effective sample size, which implies a lower variance of gradient estimates.