Models for collecting and aggregating categorical data on crowdsourcing platforms typically fall into two broad categories: those assuming agents honest and consistent but with heterogeneous error rates, and those assuming agents strategic and seek to maximize their expected reward. The former often leads to tractable aggregation of elicited data, while the latter usually focuses on optimal elicitation and does not consider aggregation. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian model, wherein agents have differing quality of information, but also respond to incentives. Our model generalizes both categories and enables the joint exploration of optimal elicitation and aggregation. This model enables our exploration, both analytically and experimentally, of optimal aggregation of categorical data and optimal multiple-choice interface design.

We consider the problem of learning Bayesian networks optimally, when subject to background knowledge in the form of ancestral constraints. Our approach is based on a recently proposed framework for optimal structure learning based on non-decomposable scores, which is general enough to accommodate ancestral constraints. The proposed framework exploits oracles for learning structures using decomposable scores, which cannot accommodate ancestral constraints since they are non-decomposable. We show how to empower these oracles by passing them decomposable constraints that they can handle, which are inferred from ancestral constraints that they cannot handle. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach can be orders-of-magnitude more efficient than alternative frameworks, such as those based on integer linear programming.

Example-based explanations are widely used in the effort to improve the interpretability of highly complex distributions. However, prototypes alone are rarely sufficient to represent the gist of the complexity. In order for users to construct better mental models and understand complex data distributions, we also need {\em criticism} to explain what are \textit{not} captured by prototypes. Motivated by the Bayesian model criticism framework, we develop \texttt{MMD-critic} which efficiently learns prototypes and criticism, designed to aid human interpretability. A human subject pilot study shows that the \texttt{MMD-critic} selects prototypes and criticism that are useful to facilitate human understanding and reasoning. We also evaluate the prototypes selected by \texttt{MMD-critic} via a nearest prototype classifier, showing competitive performance compared to baselines.

Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) algorithms have become increasingly popular for Bayesian inference in large-scale applications. Even though these methods have proved useful in several scenarios, their performance is often limited by their bias. In this study, we propose a novel sampling algorithm that aims to reduce the bias of SG-MCMC while keeping the variance at a reasonable level. Our approach is based on a numerical sequence acceleration method, namely the Richardson-Romberg extrapolation, which simply boils down to running almost the same SG-MCMC algorithm twice in parallel with different step sizes. We illustrate our framework on the popular Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) algorithm and propose a novel SG-MCMC algorithm referred to as Stochastic Gradient Richardson-Romberg Langevin Dynamics (SGRRLD). We provide formal theoretical analysis and show that SGRRLD is asymptotically consistent, satisfies a central limit theorem, and its non-asymptotic bias and the mean squared-error can be bounded. Our results show that SGRRLD attains higher rates of convergence than SGLD in both finite-time and asymptotically, and it achieves the theoretical accuracy of the methods that are based on higher-order integrators. We support our findings using both synthetic and real data experiments.

Estimating patient's clinical state from multiple concurrent physiological streams plays an important role in determining if a therapeutic intervention is necessary and for triaging patients in the hospital. In this paper we construct a non-parametric learning algorithm to estimate the clinical state of a patient. The algorithm addresses several known challenges with clinical state estimation such as eliminating bias introduced by therapeutic intervention censoring, increasing the timeliness of state estimation while ensuring a sufficient accuracy, and the ability to detect anomalous clinical states. These benefits are obtained by combining the tools of non-parametric Bayesian inference, permutation testing, and generalizations of the empirical Bernstein inequality. The algorithm is validated using real-world data from a cancer ward in a large academic hospital.

Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be challenging to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include discriminative machine learning, hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, clustering algorithms, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We demonstrate the integration of CGPMs into BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform that can express data analysis tasks using a modeling definition language and structured query language. The practical value is illustrated in two ways. First, the paper describes an analysis on a database of Earth satellites, which identifies records that probably violate Kepler’s Third Law by composing causal probabilistic programs with non-parametric Bayes in 50 lines of probabilistic code. Second, it reports the lines of code and accuracy of CGPMs compared with baseline solutions from standard machine learning libraries.

Neural circuits contain heterogeneous groups of neurons that differ in type, location, connectivity, and basic response properties. However, traditional methods for dimensionality reduction and clustering are ill-suited to recovering the structure underlying the organization of neural circuits. In particular, they do not take advantage of the rich temporal dependencies in multi-neuron recordings and fail to account for the noise in neural spike trains. Here we describe new tools for inferring latent structure from simultaneously recorded spike train data using a hierarchical extension of a multi-neuron point process model commonly known as the generalized linear model (GLM). Our approach combines the GLM with flexible graph-theoretic priors governing the relationship between latent features and neural connectivity patterns. Fully Bayesian inference via Pólya-gamma augmentation of the resulting model allows us to classify neurons and infer latent dimensions of circuit organization from correlated spike trains. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with applications to synthetic data and multi-neuron recordings in primate retina, revealing latent patterns of neural types and locations from spike trains alone.

Neuroscience experiments often require training animals to perform tasks designed to elicit various sensory, cognitive, and motor behaviors. Training typically involves a series of gradual adjustments of stimulus conditions and rewards in order to bring about learning. However, training protocols are usually hand-designed, relying on a combination of intuition, guesswork, and trial-and-error, and often require weeks or months to achieve a desired level of task performance. Here we combine ideas from reinforcement learning and adaptive optimal experimental design to formulate methods for adaptive optimal training of animal behavior. Our work addresses two intriguing problems at once: first, it seeks to infer the learning rules underlying an animal's behavioral changes during training; second, it seeks to exploit these rules to select stimuli that will maximize the rate of learning toward a desired objective. We develop and test these methods using data collected from rats during training on a two-interval sensory discrimination task. We show that we can accurately infer the parameters of a policy-gradient-based learning algorithm that describes how the animal's internal model of the task evolves over the course of training. We then formulate a theory for optimal training, which involves selecting sequences of stimuli that will drive the animal's internal policy toward a desired location in the parameter space. Simulations show that our method can in theory provide a substantial speedup over standard training methods. We feel these results will hold considerable theoretical and practical implications both for researchers in reinforcement learning and for experimentalists seeking to train animals.

We exhibit a strong link between frequentist PAC-Bayesian bounds and the Bayesian marginal likelihood. That is, for the negative log-likelihood loss function, we show that the minimization of PAC-Bayesian generalization bounds maximizes the Bayesian marginal likelihood. This provides an alternative explanation to the Bayesian Occam's razor criteria, under the assumption that the data is generated by an i.i.d. distribution. Moreover, as the negative log-likelihood is an unbounded loss function, we motivate and propose a PAC-Bayesian theorem tailored for the sub-gamma loss family, and we show that our approach is sound on classical Bayesian linear regression tasks.

We propose and study a new model for reinforcement learning with rich observations, generalizing contextual bandits to sequential decision making. These models require an agent to take actions based on observations (features) with the goal of achieving long-term performance competitive with a large set of policies. To avoid barriers to sample-efficient learning associated with large observation spaces and general POMDPs, we focus on problems that can be summarized by a small number of hidden states and have long-term rewards that are predictable by a reactive function class. In this setting, we design and analyze a new reinforcement learning algorithm, Least Squares Value Elimination by Exploration. We prove that the algorithm learns near optimal behavior after a number of episodes that is polynomial in all relevant parameters, logarithmic in the number of policies, and independent of the size of the observation space. Our result provides theoretical justification for reinforcement learning with function approximation.