Major natural or man-made disasters such as Hurricane Katrina or the 9/11 terror attacks pose significant challenges for emergency responders. First, they have to develop an understanding of the unfolding event either using their own resources or through third-parties such as the local population and agencies. Second, based on the information gathered, they need to deploy their teams in a flexible manner, ensuring that each team performs tasks in The most effective way. Third, given the dynamic nature of a disaster space, and the uncertainties involved in performing rescue missions, information about the disaster space and the actors within it needs to be managed to ensure that responders are always acting on up-to-date and trusted information. Against this background, this paper proposes a novel disaster response system called HAC-ER. Thus HAC-ER interweaves humans and agents, both robotic and software, in social relationships that augment their individual and collective capabilities. To design HAC-ER, we involved end-users including both experts and volunteers in a several participatory design workshops, lab studies, and field trials of increasingly advanced prototypes of individual components of HAC-ER as well as the overall system. This process generated a number of new quantitative and qualitative results but also raised a number of new research questions. HAC-ER thus demonstrates how such Human-Agent Collectives (HACs) can address key challenges in disaster response. Specifically, we show how HAC-ER utilises crowdsourcing combined with machine learning to obtain most important situational awareness from large streams of reports posted by members of the public and trusted organisations. We then show how this information can inform human-agent teams in coordinating multi-UAV deployments, as well as task planning for responders on the ground. Finally, HAC-ER incorporates an infrastructure and the associated intelligence for tracking and utilising the provenance of information shared across the entire system to ensure its accountability. We individually validate each of these elements of HAC-ER and show how they perform against standard (non-HAC) baselines and also elaborate on the evaluation of the overall system.

A fundamental problem in cognitive neuroscience is how humans make decisions, act, and behave in relation to other humans. Here we adopt the hypothesis that when we are in an interactive social setting, our brains perform Bayesian inference of the intentions and cooperativeness of others using probabilistic representations. We employ the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to model human decision making in a social context, focusing specifically on the volunteer's dilemma in a version of the classic Public Goods Game. We show that the POMDP model explains both the behavior of subjects as well as neural activity recorded using fMRI during the game. The decisions of subjects can be modeled across all trials using two interpretable parameters. Furthermore, the expected reward predicted by the model for each subject was correlated with the activation of brain areas related to reward expectation in social interactions. Our results suggest a probabilistic basis for human social decision making within the framework of expected reward maximization.

We study the sampling-based planning problem in Markov decision processes (MDPs) that we can access only through a generative model, usually referred to as Monte-Carlo planning. Our objective is to return a good estimate of the optimal value function at any state while minimizing the number of calls to the generative model, i.e. the sample complexity. We propose a new algorithm, TrailBlazer, able to handle MDPs with a finite or an infinite number of transitions from state-action to next states. TrailBlazer is an adaptive algorithm that exploits possible structures of the MDP by exploring only a subset of states reachable by following near-optimal policies. We provide bounds on its sample complexity that depend on a measure of the quantity of near-optimal states. The algorithm behavior can be considered as an extension of Monte-Carlo sampling (for estimating an expectation) to problems that alternate maximization (over actions) and expectation (over next states). Finally, another appealing feature of TrailBlazer is that it is simple to implement and computationally efficient.

Utilizing the structure of a probabilistic model can significantly increase its learning speed. Motivated by several recent applications, in particular bigram models in language processing, we consider learning low-rank conditional probability matrices under expected KL-risk. This choice makes smoothing, that is the careful handling of low-probability elements, paramount. We derive an iterative algorithm that extends classical non-negative matrix factorization to naturally incorporate additive smoothing and prove that it converges to the stationary points of a penalized empirical risk. We then derive sample-complexity bounds for the global minimizer of the penalized risk and show that it is within a small factor of the optimal sample complexity. This framework generalizes to more sophisticated smoothing techniques, including absolute-discounting.

We introduce a new dynamical system for sequentially observed multivariate count data. This model is based on the gamma-Poisson construction--a natural choice for count data--and relies on a novel Bayesian nonparametric prior that ties and shrinks the model parameters, thus avoiding overfitting. We present an efficient MCMC inference algorithmthat advances recent work on augmentation schemes for inference in negative binomial models. Finally, we demonstrate the model's inductive bias using a variety of real-world data sets, showing that it exhibits superior predictive performance over other models and infers highly interpretable latent structure.

Observable operator models (OOMs) and related models are one of the most important and powerful tools for modeling and analyzing stochastic systems. They exactly describe dynamics of finite-rank systems and can be efficiently and consistently estimated through spectral learning under the assumption of identically distributed data. In this paper, we investigate the properties of spectral learning without this assumption due to the requirements of analyzing large-time scale systems, and show that the equilibrium dynamics of a system can be extracted from nonequilibrium observation data by imposing an equilibrium constraint. In addition, we propose a binless extension of spectral learning for continuous data. In comparison with the other continuous-valued spectral algorithms, the binless algorithm can achieve consistent estimation of equilibrium dynamics with only linear complexity.

We study probability measures induced by set functions with constraints. Such measures arise in a variety of real-world settings, where prior knowledge, resource limitations, or other pragmatic considerations impose constraints. We consider the task of rapidly sampling from such constrained measures, and develop fast Markov chain samplers for them. Our first main result is for MCMC sampling from Strongly Rayleigh (SR) measures, for which we present sharp polynomial bounds on the mixing time. As a corollary, this result yields a fast mixing sampler for Determinantal Point Processes (DPPs), yielding (to our knowledge) the first provably fast MCMC sampler for DPPs since their inception over four decades ago. Beyond SR measures, we develop MCMC samplers for probabilistic models with hard constraints and identify sufficient conditions under which their chains mix rapidly. We illustrate our claims by empirically verifying the dependence of mixing times on the key factors governing our theoretical bounds.

We propose a vector-valued regression problem whose solution is equivalent to the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) embedding of the Bayesian posterior distribution. This equivalence provides a new understanding of kernel Bayesian inference. Moreover, the optimization problem induces a new regularization for the posterior embedding estimator, which is faster and has comparable performance to the squared regularization in kernel Bayes' rule. This regularization coincides with a former thresholding approach used in kernel POMDPs whose consistency remains to be established. Our theoretical work solves this open problem and provides consistency analysis in regression settings. Based on our optimizational formulation, we propose a flexible Bayesian posterior regularization framework which for the first time enables us to put regularization at the distribution level. We apply this method to nonparametric state-space filtering tasks with extremely nonlinear dynamics and show performance gains over all other baselines.

In neuroscience, the similarity matrix of neural activity patterns in response to different sensory stimuli or under different cognitive states reflects the structure of neural representational space. Existing methods derive point estimations of neural activity patterns from noisy neural imaging data, and the similarity is calculated from these point estimations. We show that this approach translates structured noise from estimated patterns into spurious bias structure in the resulting similarity matrix, which is especially severe when signal-to-noise ratio is low and experimental conditions cannot be fully randomized in a cognitive task. We propose an alternative Bayesian framework for computing representational similarity in which we treat the covariance structure of neural activity patterns as a hyper-parameter in a generative model of the neural data, and directly estimate this covariance structure from imaging data while marginalizing over the unknown activity patterns. Converting the estimated covariance structure into a correlation matrix offers a much less biased estimate of neural representational similarity. Our method can also simultaneously estimate a signal-to-noise map that informs where the learned representational structure is supported more strongly, and the learned covariance matrix can be used as a structured prior to constrain Bayesian estimation of neural activity patterns. Our code is freely available in Brain Imaging Analysis Kit (Brainiak) (https://github.com/IntelPNI/brainiak), a python toolkit for brain imaging analysis.

Hybrid methods that utilize both content and rating information are commonly used in many recommender systems. However, most of them use either handcrafted features or the bag-of-words representation as a surrogate for the content information but they are neither effective nor natural enough. To address this problem, we develop a collaborative recurrent autoencoder (CRAE) which is a denoising recurrent autoencoder (DRAE) that models the generation of content sequences in the collaborative filtering (CF) setting. The model generalizes recent advances in recurrent deep learning from i.i.d. input to non-i.i.d. (CF-based) input and provides a new denoising scheme along with a novel learnable pooling scheme for the recurrent autoencoder. To do this, we first develop a hierarchical Bayesian model for the DRAE and then generalize it to the CF setting. The synergy between denoising and CF enables CRAE to make accurate recommendations while learning to fill in the blanks in sequences. Experiments on real-world datasets from different domains (CiteULike and Netflix) show that, by jointly modeling the order-aware generation of sequences for the content information and performing CF for the ratings, CRAE is able to significantly outperform the state of the art on both the recommendation task based on ratings and the sequence generation task based on content information.