Modeling stochastic multiagent behavior such as fish schooling is challenging for fixed-estimate prediction techniques because they fail to reliably reproduce the stochastic aspects of the agents’ behavior. We show how standard fixed-estimate predictors fit within a probabilistic framework, and suggest the reason they work for certain classes of behaviors and not others. We quantify the degree of mismatch and offer alternative sampling-based modeling techniques. We are specifically interested in building executable models (as opposed to statistical or descriptive models) because we want to reproduce and study multiagent behavior in simulation. Such models can be used by biologists, sociologists, and economists to explain and predict individual and group behavior in novel scenarios, and to test hypotheses regarding group behavior. Developing models from observation of real systems is an obvious application of machine learning. Learning directly from data eliminates expensive hand processing and tuning, but introduces unique challenges that violate certain assumptions common in standard machine learning approaches. Our framework suggests a new class of sampling-based methods, which we implement and apply to simulated deterministic and stochastic schooling behaviors, as well as the observed schooling behavior of real fish. Experimental results show that our implementation performs comparably with standard learning techniques for deterministic behaviors, and better on stochastic behaviors.

Hybrid (mixed discrete and continuous) state and action Markov Decision Processes (HSA-MDPs) provide an expressive formalism for modeling stochastic and concurrent sequential decision-making problems. Existing solvers for HSA-MDPs are either limited to very restricted transition distributions, require knowledge of domain-specific basis functions to achieve good approximations, or do not scale. We explore a domain-independent approach based on the framework of hindsight optimization (HOP) for HSA-MDPs, which uses an upper bound on the finite-horizon action values for action selection. Our main contribution is a linear time reduction to a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MILP) that encodes the HOP objective, when the dynamics are specified as location-scale probability distributions parametrized by Piecewise Linear (PWL) functions of states and actions. In addition, we show how to use the same machinery to select actions based on a lower-bound generated by straight line plans. Our empirical results show that the HSA-HOP approach effectively scales to high-dimensional problems and outperforms baselines that are capable of scaling to such large hybrid MDPs.

Structured knowledge about concepts plays an increasingly important role in areas such as information retrieval. The available ontologies and knowledge graphs that encode such conceptual knowledge, however, are inevitably incomplete. This observation has led to a number of methods that aim to automatically complete existing knowledge bases. Unfortunately, most existing approaches rely on black box models, e.g. formulated as global optimization problems, which makes it difficult to support the underlying reasoning process with intuitive explanations. In this paper, we propose a new method for knowledge base completion, which uses interpretable conceptual space representations and an explicit model for inductive inference that is closer to human forms of commonsense reasoning. Moreover, by separating the task of representation learning from inductive reasoning, our method is easier to apply in a wider variety of contexts. Finally, unlike optimization based approaches, our method can naturally be applied in settings where various logical constraints between the extensions of concepts need to be taken into account.

LP MLN is a recently introduced formalism that extends answer set programs by adopting the log-linear weight scheme of Markov Logic. This paper investigates the relationships between LPMLN and two other extensions of answer set programs: weak constraints to express a quantitative preference among answer sets, and P-log to incorporate probabilistic uncertainty. We present a translation of LP MLN into programs with weak constraints and a translation of P-log into LPMLN, which complement the existing translations in the opposite directions. The first translation allows us to compute the most probable stable models (i.e., MAP estimates) of LP MLN programs using standard ASP solvers. This result can be extended to other formalisms, such as Markov Logic, ProbLog, and Pearl's Causal Models, that are shown to be translatable into LP MLN . The second translation tells us how probabilistic nonmonotonicity (the ability of the reasoner to change his probabilistic model as a result of new information) of P-log can be represented in LP MLN , which yields a way to compute P-log using standard ASP solvers and MLN solvers.

Probabilistic modeling is one of the foundations of modern Learning the structure of a probabilistic model resembles machine learning and artificial intelligence, which aims to learning the set of production rules of a grammar, while compactly represent the joint probability distribution of random learning model parameters resembles learning grammar rule variables. The most widely used approach for probabilistic probabilities. From the unsupervised grammar learning literature, modeling is probabilistic graphical models. A probabilistic one can see that learning approaches based on PCFGs graphical model represents a probability distribution with a have not been very successful, while the state-of-the-art performance directed or undirected graph. It represents random variables has mostly been achieved based on less expressive with the nodes in the graph and uses the edges in the graph to models such as dependency grammars (DGs) (Klein and encode the probabilistic relationships between random variables.

Decentralized Markov Decision Process (Dec-MDP) provides a rich framework to represent cooperative decentralized and stochastic planning problems under transition uncertainty. However, solving a Dec-MDP to generate coordinated yet decentralized policies is NEXP-Hard. Researchers have made significant progress in providing approximate approaches to improve scalability with respect to number of agents. However, there has been little or no research devoted to finding guarantees on solution quality for approximate approaches considering multiple (more than 2 agents) agents. We have a similar situation with respect to the competitive decentralized planning problem and the Stochastic Game (SG) model. To address this, we identify models in the cooperative and competitive case that rely on submodular rewards, where we show that existing approximate approaches can provide strong quality guarantees ( a priori, and for cooperative case also posteriori guarantees). We then provide solution approaches and demonstrate improved online guarantees on benchmark problems from the literature for the cooperative case.

In lexicon-based classification, documents are assigned labels by comparing the number of words that appear from two opposed lexicons, such as positive and negative sentiment. Creating such words lists is often easier than labeling instances, and they can be debugged by non-experts if classification performance is unsatisfactory. However, there is little analysis or justification of this classification heuristic. This paper describes a set of assumptions that can be used to derive a probabilistic justification for lexicon-based classification, as well as an analysis of its expected accuracy. One key assumption behind lexicon-based classification is that all words in each lexicon are equally predictive. This is rarely true in practice, which is why lexicon-based approaches are usually outperformed by supervised classifiers that learn distinct weights on each word from labeled instances. This paper shows that it is possible to learn such weights without labeled data, by leveraging co-occurrence statistics across the lexicons. This offers the best of both worlds: light supervision in the form of lexicons, and data-driven classification with higher accuracy than traditional word-counting heuristics.

Automatic caption generation is a key research field in the machine learning community. However, most of the current research is performed on English caption generation ignoring other languages like Arabic and Persian. In this paper, we propose a novel technique leveraging the heavy influence of root words in Arabic to automatically generate captions in Arabic. Fragments of the images are associated with root words and deep belief network pre-trained using Restricted Boltzmann Machines are used to extract words associated with image. Finally, dependency tree relations are used to generate sentence-captions by using the dependency on root words. Our approach is robust and attains BLEU-1 score of 34.8.

To operate in human-robot coexisting environments, intelligent robots need to simultaneously reason with commonsense knowledge and plan under uncertainty. Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs), are good at planning under uncertainty toward maximizing long-term rewards; P-LOG, a declarative programming language under Answer Set semantics, is strong in commonsense reasoning. In this paper, we present a novel algorithm called iCORPP to dynamically reason about, and construct (PO)MDPs using P-LOG. iCORPP successfully shields exogenous domain attributes from (PO)MDPs, which limits computational complexity and enables (PO)MDPs to adapt to the value changes these attributes produce. We conduct a number of experimental trials using two example problems in simulation and demonstrate iCORPP on a real robot. Results show significant improvements compared to competitive baselines.

The Model AI Assignments session seeks to gather and disseminate the best assignment designs of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) Education community. Recognizing that assignments form the core of student learning experience, we here present abstracts of six AI assignments from the 2017 session that are easily adoptable, playfully engaging, and flexible for a variety of instructor needs.