We introduce a novel Bayesian hybrid matrix factorisation model (HMF) for data integration, based on combining multiple matrix factorisation methods, that can be used for in- and out-of-matrix prediction of missing values. The model is very general and can be used to integrate many datasets across different entity types, including repeated experiments, similarity matrices, and very sparse datasets. We apply our method on two biological applications, and extensively compare it to state-of-the-art machine learning and matrix factorisation models. For in-matrix predictions on drug sensitivity datasets we obtain consistently better performances than existing methods. This is especially the case when we increase the sparsity of the datasets. Furthermore, we perform out-of-matrix predictions on methylation and gene expression datasets, and obtain the best results on two of the three datasets, especially when the predictivity of datasets is high.

Traditionally, the field of computational Bayesian statistics has been divided into two main subfields: variational methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In recent years, however, several methods have been proposed based on combining variational Bayesian inference and MCMC simulation in order to improve their overall accuracy and computational efficiency. This marriage of fast evaluation and flexible approximation provides a promising means of designing scalable Bayesian inference methods. In this paper, we explore the possibility of incorporating variational approximation into a state-of-the-art MCMC method, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), to reduce the required gradient computation in the simulation of Hamiltonian flow, which is the bottleneck for many applications of HMC in big data problems. To this end, we use a {\it free-form} approximation induced by a fast and flexible surrogate function based on single-hidden layer feedforward neural networks. The surrogate provides sufficiently accurate approximation while allowing for fast exploration of parameter space, resulting in an efficient approximate inference algorithm. We demonstrate the advantages of our method on both synthetic and real data problems.

Since the 2016 presidential election, one topic dominating political discourse is the issue of "Fake News". A number of political pundits claim that the rise of significantly biased and/or untrue news influenced the election, though a study by researchers from Stanford and New York University concluded otherwise. Nonetheless, fake news posts have exploited Facebook users' feeds to propagate throughout the internet. Obviously, a deliberately misleading story is "fake news" but lately blathering social media discourse, is changing its definition. Some now use the term to dismiss facts counter to their preferred viewpoints, the most prominent example being President Trump.

Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with the desired invariant distribution. In this document, we focus on the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) sampler, which can be considered as the atom of the MCMC techniques, introducing the basic notions and different properties. We describe in details all the elements involved in the MH algorithm and the most relevant variants. Several improvements and recent extensions proposed in the literature are also briefly discussed, providing a quick but exhaustive overview of the current Metropolis-based sampling's world.

It is not death that a man should fear but he should fear never beginning to live.

In this paper, we consider a new low-quality label learning problem: learning time series detection models from temporally imprecise labels. In this problem, the data consist of a set of input time series, and supervision is provided by a sequence of noisy time stamps corresponding to the occurrence of positive class events. Such temporally imprecise labels commonly occur in areas like mobile health research where human annotators are tasked with labeling the occurrence of very short duration events. We propose a general learning framework for this problem that can accommodate different base classifiers and noise models. We present results on real mobile health data showing that the proposed framework significantly outperforms a number of alternatives including assuming that the label time stamps are noise-free, transforming the problem into the multiple instance learning framework, and learning on labels that were manually re-aligned.

We consider a point cloud $X_n := \{ x_1, \dots, x_n \}$ uniformly distributed on the flat torus $\mathbb{T}^d : = \mathbb{R}^d / \mathbb{Z}^d $, and construct a geometric graph on the cloud by connecting points that are within distance $\epsilon$ of each other. We let $\mathcal{P}(X_n)$ be the space of probability measures on $X_n$ and endow it with a discrete Wasserstein distance $W_n$ as introduced independently by Maas and Zhou et al. for general finite Markov chains. We show that as long as $\epsilon= \epsilon_n$ decays towards zero slower than an explicit rate depending on the level of uniformity of $X_n$, then the space $(\mathcal{P}(X_n), W_n)$ converges in the Gromov-Hausdorff sense towards the space of probability measures on $\mathbb{T}^d$ endowed with the Wasserstein distance.

In this paper, we consider adaptive decision-making problems for stochastic state estimation with partial observations. First, we introduce the concept of weak adaptive submodularity, a generalization of adaptive submodularity, which has found great success in solving challenging adaptive state estimation problems. Then, for the problem of active diagnosis, i.e., discrete state estimation via active sensing, we show that an adaptive greedy policy has a near-optimal performance guarantee when the reward function possesses this property. We further show that the reward function for group-based active diagnosis, which arises in applications such as medical diagnosis and state estimation with persistent sensor faults, is also weakly adaptive submodular. Finally, in experiments of state estimation for an aircraft electrical system with persistent sensor faults, we observe that an adaptive greedy policy performs equally well as an exhaustive search.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a ubiquitous tool to model time series data, and have been widely used in two main tasks of Automatic Music Transcription (AMT): note segmentation, i.e. identifying the played notes after a multi-pitch estimation, and sequential post-processing, i.e. correcting note segmentation using training data. In this paper, we employ the multi-pitch estimation method called Probabilistic Latent Component Analysis (PLCA), and develop AMT systems by integrating different HMM-based modules in this framework. For note segmentation, we use two different twostate on/o? HMMs, including a higher-order one for duration modeling. For sequential post-processing, we focused on a musicological modeling of polyphonic harmonic transitions, using a first- and second-order HMMs whose states are defined through candidate note mixtures. These different PLCA plus HMM systems have been evaluated comparatively on two different instrument repertoires, namely the piano (using the MAPS database) and the marovany zither. Our results show that the use of HMMs could bring noticeable improvements to transcription results, depending on the instrument repertoire.

Simple models, in information theoretic terms, are those with a small stochastic complexity. We study the stochastic complexity of spin models with interactions of arbitrary order. Invariance with respect to bijections within the space of operators allows us to classify models in complexity classes. This invariance also shows that simplicity is not related to the order of the interactions, but rather to their mutual arrangement. Models where statistical dependencies are localized on non-overlapping groups of few variables (and that afford predictions on independencies that are easy to falsify) are simple. On the contrary, fully connected pairwise models, which are often used in statistical learning, are highly complex because of their extended set of interactions.