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Approximate Inference with Amortised MCMC

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a novel approximate inference algorithm that approximates a target distribution by amortising the dynamics of a user-selected MCMC sampler. The idea is to initialise MCMC using samples from an approximation network, apply the MCMC operator to improve these samples, and finally use the samples to update the approximation network thereby improving its quality. This provides a new generic framework for approximate inference, allowing us to deploy highly complex, or implicitly defined approximation families with intractable densities, including approximations produced by warping a source of randomness through a deep neural network. Experiments consider image modelling with deep generative models as a challenging test for the method. Deep models trained using amortised MCMC are shown to generate realistic looking samples as well as producing diverse imputations for images with regions of missing pixels.


A unified view of entropy-regularized Markov decision processes

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose a general framework for entropy-regularized average-reward reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our approach is based on extending the linear-programming formulation of policy optimization in MDPs to accommodate convex regularization functions. Our key result is showing that using the conditional entropy of the joint state-action distributions as regularization yields a dual optimization problem closely resembling the Bellman optimality equations. This result enables us to formalize a number of state-of-the-art entropy-regularized reinforcement learning algorithms as approximate variants of Mirror Descent or Dual Averaging, and thus to argue about the convergence properties of these methods. In particular, we show that the exact version of the TRPO algorithm of Schulman et al. (2015) actually converges to the optimal policy, while the entropy-regularized policy gradient methods of Mnih et al. (2016) may fail to converge to a fixed point. Finally, we illustrate empirically the effects of using various regularization techniques on learning performance in a simple reinforcement learning setup.


The 10 Algorithms Machine Learning Engineers Need to Know

@machinelearnbot

It is no doubt that the sub-field of machine learning / artificial intelligence has increasingly gained more popularity in the past couple of years. As Big Data is the hottest trend in the tech industry at the moment, machine learning is incredibly powerful to make predictions or calculated suggestions based on large amounts of data. Some of the most common examples of machine learning are Netflix's algorithms to make movie suggestions based on movies you have watched in the past or Amazon's algorithms that recommend books based on books you have bought before. So if you want to learn more about machine learning, how do you start? For me, my first introduction is when I took an Artificial Intelligence class when I was studying abroad in Copenhagen. My lecturer is a full-time Applied Math and CS professor at the Technical University of Denmark, in which his research areas are logic and artificial, focusing primarily on the use of logic to model human-like planning, reasoning and problem solving.


Nice latent variable models have log-rank

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Matrices of low rank are pervasive in big data, appearing in recommender systems, movie preferences, topic models, medical records, and genomics. While there is a vast literature on how to exploit low rank structure in these datasets, there is less attention on explaining why the low rank structure appears in the first place. We explain the abundance of low rank matrices in big data by proving that certain latent variable models associated to piecewise analytic functions are of log-rank. A large matrix from such a latent variable model can be approximated, up to a small error, by a low rank matrix.


Honey Bee Dance Modeling in Real-time using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The waggle dance that honeybees perform is an astonishing way of communicating the location of food source. After over 60 years of its discovery, researchers still use manual labeling by watching hours of dance videos to detect different transitions between dance components thus extracting information regarding the distance and direction to the food source. We propose an automated process to monitor and segment different components of honeybee waggle dance. The process is highly accurate, runs in real-time, and can use shared information between multiple dances.


Bayesian Machine Learning, Explained

@machinelearnbot

So you know the Bayes rule. How does it relate to machine learning? It can be quite difficult to grasp how the puzzle pieces fit together - we know it took us a while. This article is an introduction we wish we had back then. While we have some grasp on the matter, we're not experts, so the following might contain inaccuracies or even outright errors. Feel free to point them out, either in the comments or privately.


Machine Learning is dead – Long live machine learning!

@machinelearnbot

You may be thinking that this title makes no sense at all. ML, AI, ANN and Deep learning have made it into the everyday lexicon and here I am, proclaiming that ML is dead. The open sourcing of entire ML frameworks marks the end of a phase of rapid development of tools, and thus marks the death of ML as we have known it so far. The next phase will be marked with ubiquitous application of these tools into software applications. And that is how ML will live forever, because it will seamlessly and inextricably integrate into our lives. There has been a rapid democratization of data and tools in the past year.


DoorDash sees 25% lift from AI recommendations

#artificialintelligence

Food delivery company DoorDash says personalized restaurant recommendations based on AI are seeing a significant lift in orders, compared to regular recommendations based on popularity. In an interview with VentureBeat, DoorDash product manager Jimmy Liu said customers who saw personalized recommendations on average "were over 25 percent more likely" to place an order versus people who saw the most popular restaurants in their area. We talked with Liu on the eve of the company's announcement today that it's rolling out these machine-learning based recommendations to all of its users, after testing it on increasing percentages of its customer base. Millions of users have already seen the recommendations, the company said. Liu said the 25 percent lift from recommendations came specifically from email campaigns.


Estimating Accuracy from Unlabeled Data: A Probabilistic Logic Approach

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We propose an efficient method to estimate the accuracy of classifiers using only unlabeled data. We consider a setting with multiple classification problems where the target classes may be tied together through logical constraints. For example, a set of classes may be mutually exclusive, meaning that a data instance can belong to at most one of them. The proposed method is based on the intuition that: (i) when classifiers agree, they are more likely to be correct, and (ii) when the classifiers make a prediction that violates the constraints, at least one classifier must be making an error. Experiments on four real-world data sets produce accuracy estimates within a few percent of the true accuracy, using solely unlabeled data. Our models also outperform existing state-of-the-art solutions in both estimating accuracies, and combining multiple classifier outputs. The results emphasize the utility of logical constraints in estimating accuracy, thus validating our intuition.


The Kernel Mixture Network: A Nonparametric Method for Conditional Density Estimation of Continuous Random Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of kernel functions centered at a subset of training points. The weights are determined by the outer layer of a deep neural network, trained by minimizing the negative log likelihood. This generalizes the popular quantized softmax approach, which can be seen as a kernel mixture network with square and non-overlapping kernels. We test the performance of our method on two important applications, namely Bayesian filtering and generative modeling. In the Bayesian filtering example, we show that the method can be used to filter complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian signals defined on manifolds. The resulting kernel mixture network filter outperforms both the quantized softmax filter and the extended Kalman filter in terms of model likelihood. Finally, our experiments on generative models show that, given the same architecture, the kernel mixture network leads to higher test set likelihood, less overfitting and more diversified and realistic generated samples than the quantized softmax approach.