Growing interest in automatic speaker verification (ASV)systems has lead to significant quality improvement of spoofing attackson them. Many research works confirm that despite the low equal er-ror rate (EER) ASV systems are still vulnerable to spoofing attacks. Inthis work we overview different acoustic feature spaces and classifiersto determine reliable and robust countermeasures against spoofing at-tacks. We compared several spoofing detection systems, presented so far,on the development and evaluation datasets of the Automatic SpeakerVerification Spoofing and Countermeasures (ASVspoof) Challenge 2015.Experimental results presented in this paper demonstrate that the useof magnitude and phase information combination provides a substantialinput into the efficiency of the spoofing detection systems. Also wavelet-based features show impressive results in terms of equal error rate. Inour overview we compare spoofing performance for systems based on dif-ferent classifiers. Comparison results demonstrate that the linear SVMclassifier outperforms the conventional GMM approach. However, manyresearchers inspired by the great success of deep neural networks (DNN)approaches in the automatic speech recognition, applied DNN in thespoofing detection task and obtained quite low EER for known and un-known type of spoofing attacks.

Incremental methods for structure learning of pairwise Markov random fields (MRFs), such as grafting, improve scalability to large systems by avoiding inference over the entire feature space in each optimization step. Instead, inference is performed over an incrementally grown active set of features. In this paper, we address the computational bottlenecks that current techniques still suffer by introducing online edge grafting, an incremental, structured method that activates edges as groups of features in a streaming setting. The framework is based on reservoir sampling of edges that satisfy a necessary activation condition, approximating the search for the optimal edge to activate. Online edge grafting performs an informed edge search set reorganization using search history and structure heuristics. Experiments show a significant computational speedup for structure learning and a controllable trade-off between the speed and the quality of learning.

Variational inference is a powerful approach for approximate posterior inference. However, it is sensitive to initialization and can be subject to poor local optima. In this paper, we develop proximity variational inference (PVI). PVI is a new method for optimizing the variational objective that constrains subsequent iterates of the variational parameters to robustify the optimization path. Consequently, PVI is less sensitive to initialization and optimization quirks and finds better local optima. We demonstrate our method on three proximity statistics. We study PVI on a Bernoulli factor model and sigmoid belief network with both real and synthetic data and compare to deterministic annealing (Katahira et al., 2008). We highlight the flexibility of PVI by designing a proximity statistic for Bayesian deep learning models such as the variational autoencoder (Kingma and Welling, 2014; Rezende et al., 2014). Empirically, we show that PVI consistently finds better local optima and gives better predictive performance.

Check out Part I of this article for background information, and to discover the first 12 uses of statistical modeling. Here we list another 12 popular uses of statistical, data science, machine learning, optimization, graph theory, mathematical and operations research techniques. Monte-Carlo simulations are used in many contexts: to produce high quality pseudo-random numbers, in complex settings such as multi-layer spatio-temporal hierarchical Bayesian models, to estimate parameters (see picture below), to compute statistics associated with very rare events, or even to generate large amount of data (for instance cross and auto-correlated time series) to test and compare various algorithms, especially for stock trading or in engineering. Customer churn analysis helps you identify and focus on higher value customers, determine what actions typically precede a lost customer or sale, and better understand what factors influence customer retention. Statistical techniques involved include survival analysis (see Part I of this article) as well as Markov chains with four states: brand new customer, returning customer, inactive (lost) customer, and re-acquired customer, along with path analysis (including root cause analysis) to understand how customers move from one state to another, to maximize profit.

She shares her mistakes and what she learned. She also give us her favorite hack for making a soundproof iPad booth for recording.

It is oftentimes impossible to understand how machine learning models reach a decision. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how a learning model makes individual decisions, they cannot provide users with ability to inspect a learning model as a complete entity. In this work, we propose a new technical approach that augments a Bayesian regression mixture model with multiple elastic nets. Using the enhanced mixture model, we extract explanations for a target model through global approximation. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we evaluate it on different learning models covering the tasks of text mining and image recognition. Our results indicate that the proposed approach not only outperforms the state-of-the-art technique in explaining individual decisions but also provides users with an ability to discover the vulnerabilities of a learning model.

Crowdsourcing platforms emerged as popular venues for purchasing human intelligence at low cost for large volumes of tasks. As many low-paid workers are prone to give noisy answers, one of the fundamental questions is how to identify more reliable workers and exploit this heterogeneity to infer the true answers accurately. Despite significant research efforts for classification tasks with discrete answers, little attention has been paid to regression tasks with continuous answers. The popular Dawid-Skene model for discrete answers has the algorithmic and mathematical simplicity in relation to low-rank structures. But it does not generalize for continuous valued answers. To this end, we introduce a new probabilistic model for crowdsourced regression capturing the heterogeneity of the workers, generalizing the Dawid-Skene model to the continuous domain. We design a message-passing algorithm for Bayesian inference inspired by the popular belief propagation algorithm. We showcase its performance first by proving that it achieves a near optimal mean squared error by comparing it to an oracle estimator. Asymptotically, we can provide a tighter analysis showing that the proposed algorithm achieves the exact optimal performance. We next show synthetic experiments confirming our theoretical predictions. As a practical application, we further emulate a crowdsourcing system reproducing PASCAL visual object classes datasets and show that de-noising the crowdsourced data from the proposed scheme can significantly improve the performance for the vision task.

"Speaker: Christopher Fonnesbeck This intermediate-level tutorial will provide students with hands-on experience applying practical statistical modeling methods on real data. Unlike many introductory statistics courses, we will not be applying ""cookbook"" methods that are easy to teach, but often inapplicable; instead, we will learn some foundational statistical methods that can be applied generally to a wide variety of problems: maximum likelihood, bootstrapping, linear regression, and other modern techniques. The tutorial will start with a short introduction on data manipulation and cleaning using [pandas](http://pandas.pydata.org/), Slightly more advanced topics include bootstrapping (for estimating uncertainty around estimates) and flexible linear regression methods using Bayesian methods. By using and modifying hand-coded implementations of these techniques, students will gain an understanding of how each method works.

Stop words typically remove such things as "a, an, the, it". Often this can be beneficial when we are classifying based on topics, which are well described by nouns and adjectives. However some text classification tasks are more abstract. Consider classifying fiction and non-fiction articles on the same topic, what would the difference between these two writing styles be? They would probably use the same nouns but what about the frequency of "the" vs "an" or "he" vs "they"?

We show how to control the generalization error of time series models wherein past values of the outcome are used to predict future values. The results are based on a generalization of standard i.i.d. concentration inequalities to dependent data without the mixing assumptions common in the time series setting. Our proof and the result are simpler than previous analyses with dependent data or stochastic adversaries which use sequential Rademacher complexities rather than the expected Rademacher complexity for i.i.d. processes. We also derive empirical Rademacher results without mixing assumptions resulting in fully calculable upper bounds.