We show how to control the generalization error of time series models wherein past values of the outcome are used to predict future values. The results are based on a generalization of standard i.i.d. concentration inequalities to dependent data without the mixing assumptions common in the time series setting. Our proof and the result are simpler than previous analyses with dependent data or stochastic adversaries which use sequential Rademacher complexities rather than the expected Rademacher complexity for i.i.d. processes. We also derive empirical Rademacher results without mixing assumptions resulting in fully calculable upper bounds.

It is no doubt that the sub-field of machine learning / artificial intelligence has increasingly gained more popularity in the past couple of years. As Big Data is the hottest trend in the tech industry at the moment, machine learning is incredibly powerful to make predictions or calculated suggestions based on large amounts of data. Some of the most common examples of machine learning are Netflix's algorithms to make movie suggestions based on movies you have watched in the past or Amazon's algorithms that recommend books based on books you have bought before. So if you want to learn more about machine learning, how do you start? For me, my first introduction is when I took an Artificial Intelligence class when I was studying abroad in Copenhagen. My lecturer is a full-time Applied Math and CS professor at the Technical University of Denmark, in which his research areas are logic and artificial, focusing primarily on the use of logic to model human-like planning, reasoning and problem solving.

Matrices of low rank are pervasive in big data, appearing in recommender systems, movie preferences, topic models, medical records, and genomics. While there is a vast literature on how to exploit low rank structure in these datasets, there is less attention on explaining why the low rank structure appears in the first place. We explain the abundance of low rank matrices in big data by proving that certain latent variable models associated to piecewise analytic functions are of log-rank. A large matrix from such a latent variable model can be approximated, up to a small error, by a low rank matrix.

The waggle dance that honeybees perform is an astonishing way of communicating the location of food source. After over 60 years of its discovery, researchers still use manual labeling by watching hours of dance videos to detect different transitions between dance components thus extracting information regarding the distance and direction to the food source. We propose an automated process to monitor and segment different components of honeybee waggle dance. The process is highly accurate, runs in real-time, and can use shared information between multiple dances. Keywords: Classification, Machine Learning, Honey Bee, Real-time 1. Introduction Honey bees perform a special dance known as waggle dance within the beehive to communicate the information regarding the distance and direction of food sources.

So you know the Bayes rule. How does it relate to machine learning? It can be quite difficult to grasp how the puzzle pieces fit together - we know it took us a while. This article is an introduction we wish we had back then. While we have some grasp on the matter, we're not experts, so the following might contain inaccuracies or even outright errors. Feel free to point them out, either in the comments or privately.

You may be thinking that this title makes no sense at all. ML, AI, ANN and Deep learning have made it into the everyday lexicon and here I am, proclaiming that ML is dead. The open sourcing of entire ML frameworks marks the end of a phase of rapid development of tools, and thus marks the death of ML as we have known it so far. The next phase will be marked with ubiquitous application of these tools into software applications. And that is how ML will live forever, because it will seamlessly and inextricably integrate into our lives. There has been a rapid democratization of data and tools in the past year.

Food delivery company DoorDash says personalized restaurant recommendations based on AI are seeing a significant lift in orders, compared to regular recommendations based on popularity. In an interview with VentureBeat, DoorDash product manager Jimmy Liu said customers who saw personalized recommendations on average "were over 25 percent more likely" to place an order versus people who saw the most popular restaurants in their area. We talked with Liu on the eve of the company's announcement today that it's rolling out these machine-learning based recommendations to all of its users, after testing it on increasing percentages of its customer base. Millions of users have already seen the recommendations, the company said. Liu said the 25 percent lift from recommendations came specifically from email campaigns.

This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of kernel functions centered at a subset of training points. The weights are determined by the outer layer of a deep neural network, trained by minimizing the negative log likelihood. This generalizes the popular quantized softmax approach, which can be seen as a kernel mixture network with square and non-overlapping kernels. We test the performance of our method on two important applications, namely Bayesian filtering and generative modeling. In the Bayesian filtering example, we show that the method can be used to filter complex nonlinear and non-Gaussian signals defined on manifolds. The resulting kernel mixture network filter outperforms both the quantized softmax filter and the extended Kalman filter in terms of model likelihood. Finally, our experiments on generative models show that, given the same architecture, the kernel mixture network leads to higher test set likelihood, less overfitting and more diversified and realistic generated samples than the quantized softmax approach.

We propose an efficient method to estimate the accuracy of classifiers using only unlabeled data. We consider a setting with multiple classification problems where the target classes may be tied together through logical constraints. For example, a set of classes may be mutually exclusive, meaning that a data instance can belong to at most one of them. The proposed method is based on the intuition that: (i) when classifiers agree, they are more likely to be correct, and (ii) when the classifiers make a prediction that violates the constraints, at least one classifier must be making an error. Experiments on four real-world data sets produce accuracy estimates within a few percent of the true accuracy, using solely unlabeled data. Our models also outperform existing state-of-the-art solutions in both estimating accuracies, and combining multiple classifier outputs. The results emphasize the utility of logical constraints in estimating accuracy, thus validating our intuition.

Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific default risks; we propose to construct proxy CDS rates by associating to illiquid counterparty liquid CDS Proxy based on Machine Learning Techniques. After testing 156 classifiers from 8 most popular classifier families, we found that some classifiers achieve highly satisfactory accuracy rates. Furthermore, we have rank-ordered the performances and investigated performance variations amongst and within the 8 classifier families. This paper is, to the best of our knowledge, the first systematic study of CDS Proxy construction by Machine Learning techniques, and the first systematic classifier comparison study based entirely on financial market data. Its findings both confirm and contrast existing classifier performance literature. Given the typically highly correlated nature of financial data, we investigated the impact of correlation on classifier performance. The techniques used in this paper should be of interest for financial institutions seeking a CDS Proxy method, and can serve for proxy construction for other financial variables. Some directions for future research are indicated.