Learning the structure of dependencies among multiple random variables is a problem of considerable theoretical and practical interest. In practice, score optimisation with multiple restarts provides a practical and surprisingly successful solution, yet the conditions under which this may be a well founded strategy are poorly understood. In this paper, we prove that the problem of identifying the structure of a Bayesian Network via regularised score optimisation can be recast, in expectation, as a submodular optimisation problem, thus guaranteeing optimality with high probability. This result both explains the practical success of optimisation heuristics, and suggests a way to improve on such algorithms by artificially simulating multiple data sets via a bootstrap procedure. We show on several synthetic data sets that the resulting algorithm yields better recovery performance than the state of the art, and illustrate in a real cancer genomic study how such an approach can lead to valuable practical insights.

Advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) can be significantly improved with effective driver action prediction (DAP). Predicting driver actions early and accurately can help mitigate the effects of potentially unsafe driving behaviors and avoid possible accidents. In this paper, we formulate driver action prediction as a timeseries anomaly prediction problem. While the anomaly (driver actions of interest) detection might be trivial in this context, finding patterns that consistently precede an anomaly requires searching for or extracting features across multi-modal sensory inputs. We present such a driver action prediction system, including a real-time data acquisition, processing and learning framework for predicting future or impending driver action. The proposed system incorporates camera-based knowledge of the driving environment and the driver themselves, in addition to traditional vehicle dynamics. It then uses a deep bidirectional recurrent neural network (DBRNN) to learn the correlation between sensory inputs and impending driver behavior achieving accurate and high horizon action prediction. The proposed system performs better than other existing systems on driver action prediction tasks and can accurately predict key driver actions including acceleration, braking, lane change and turning at durations of 5sec before the action is executed by the driver.

In several realistic situations, an interactive learning agent can practice and refine its strategy before going on to be evaluated. For instance, consider a student preparing for a series of tests. She would typically take a few practice tests to know which areas she needs to improve upon. Based of the scores she obtains in these practice tests, she would formulate a strategy for maximizing her scores in the actual tests. We treat this scenario in the context of an agent exploring a fixed-horizon episodic Markov Decision Process (MDP), where the agent can practice on the MDP for some number of episodes (not necessarily known in advance) before starting to incur regret for its actions. During practice, the agent's goal must be to maximize the probability of following an optimal policy. This is akin to the problem of Pure Exploration (PE). We extend the PE problem of Multi Armed Bandits (MAB) to MDPs and propose a Bayesian algorithm called Posterior Sampling for Pure Exploration (PSPE), which is similar to its bandit counterpart. We show that the Bayesian simple regret converges at an optimal exponential rate when using PSPE. When the agent starts being evaluated, its goal would be to minimize the cumulative regret incurred. This is akin to the problem of Reinforcement Learning (RL). The agent uses the Posterior Sampling for Reinforcement Learning algorithm (PSRL) initialized with the posteriors of the practice phase. We hypothesize that this PSPE + PSRL combination is an optimal strategy for minimizing regret in RL problems with an initial practice phase. We show empirical results which prove that having a lower simple regret at the end of the practice phase results in having lower cumulative regret during evaluation.

A Monte Carlo algorithm typically simulates some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, so that the number of samples simulated is random. To complicate matters, the real time taken for each simulation may depend on the sample produced, so that the samples themselves are not independent of their number, and a length bias with respect to compute time is apparent. This is especially problematic when a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used and the final state of the Markov chain---rather than an average over all states---is required. The length bias does not diminish with the compute budget in this case. It occurs, for example, in sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms. We propose an anytime framework to address the concern, using a continuous-time Markov jump process to study the progress of the computation in real time. We show that the length bias can be eliminated for any MCMC algorithm by using a multiple chain construction. The utility of this construction is demonstrated on a large-scale SMC-squared implementation, using four billion particles distributed across a cluster of 128 graphics processing units on the Amazon EC2 service. The anytime framework imposes a real-time budget on the MCMC move steps within SMC-squared, ensuring that all processors are simultaneously ready for the resampling step, demonstrably reducing wait times and providing substantial control over the total compute budget.

The official title of this free book available in PDF format is Machine Learning Cheat Sheet. See table of content screenshot below. The chapters 17 to 28 (the most interesting ones in my opinion) seem like a work in progress - I'm sure the authors intend to make them a bit bigger. For a more modern and applied book, get Dr Granville's book on data science. And here's the detailed table of content:

Here we discuss general applications of statistical models, whether they arise from data science, operations research, engineering, machine learning or statistics. We do not discuss specific algorithms such as decision trees, logistic regression, Bayesian modeling, Markov models, data reduction or feature selection. Instead, I discuss frameworks - each one using its own types of techniques and algorithms - to solve real life problems. Most of the entries below are found in Wikipedia, and I have used a few definitions or extracts from the relevant Wikipedia articles, in addition to personal contributions. Spatial dependency is the co-variation of properties within geographic space: characteristics at proximal locations appear to be correlated, either positively or negatively.

Written by Chris Fonnesbeck, Assistant Professor of Biostatistics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center. You can view, fork, and play with this project on the Domino data science platform. A common applied statistics task involves building regression models to characterize non-linear relationships between variables. It is possible to fit such models by assuming a particular non-linear functional form, such as a sinusoidal, exponential, or polynomial function, to describe one variable's response to the variation in another. Unless this relationship is obvious from the outset, however, it involves possibly extensive model selection procedures to ensure the most appropriate model is retained. Alternatively, a non-parametric approach can be adopted by defining a set of knots across the variable space and use a spline or kernel regression to describe arbitrary non-linear relationships.

It is challenging to develop stochastic gradient based scalable inference for deep discrete latent variable models (LVMs), due to the difficulties in not only computing the gradients, but also adapting the step sizes to different latent factors and hidden layers. For the Poisson gamma belief network (PGBN), a recently proposed deep discrete LVM, we derive an alternative representation that is referred to as deep latent Dirichlet allocation (DLDA). Exploiting data augmentation and marginalization techniques, we derive a block-diagonal Fisher information matrix and its inverse for the simplex-constrained global model parameters of DLDA. Exploiting that Fisher information matrix with stochastic gradient MCMC, we present topic-layer-adaptive stochastic gradient Riemannian (TLASGR) MCMC that jointly learns simplex-constrained global parameters across all layers and topics, with topic and layer specific learning rates. State-of-the-art results are demonstrated on big data sets.

We study the problem of online learning in a class of Markov decision processes known as linearly solvable MDPs. In the stationary version of this problem, a learner interacts with its environment by directly controlling the state transitions, attempting to balance a fixed state-dependent cost and a certain smooth cost penalizing extreme control inputs. In the current paper, we consider an online setting where the state costs may change arbitrarily between consecutive rounds, and the learner only observes the costs at the end of each respective round. We are interested in constructing algorithms for the learner that guarantee small regret against the best stationary control policy chosen in full knowledge of the cost sequence. Our main result is showing that the smoothness of the control cost enables the simple algorithm of following the leader to achieve a regret of order $\log^2 T$ after $T$ rounds, vastly improving on the best known regret bound of order $T^{3/4}$ for this setting.

In order to interact intelligently with objects in the world, animals must first transform neural population responses into estimates of the dynamic, unknown stimuli which caused them. The Bayesian solution to this problem is known as a Bayes filter, which applies Bayes' rule to combine population responses with the predictions of an internal model. In this paper we present a method for learning to approximate a Bayes filter when the stimulus dynamics are unknown. To do this we use the inferential properties of probabilistic population codes to compute Bayes' rule, and train a neural network to compute approximate predictions by the method of maximum likelihood. In particular, we perform stochastic gradient descent on the negative log-likelihood with a novel approximation of the gradient. We demonstrate our methods on a finite-state, a linear, and a nonlinear filtering problem, and show how the hidden layer of the neural network develops tuning curves which are consistent with findings in experimental neuroscience.