Relational data are usually highly incomplete in practice, which inspires us to leverage side information to improve the performance of community detection and link prediction. This paper presents a Bayesian probabilistic approach that incorporates various kinds of node attributes encoded in binary form in relational models with Poisson likelihood. Our method works flexibly with both directed and undirected relational networks. The inference can be done by efficient Gibbs sampling which leverages sparsity of both networks and node attributes. Extensive experiments show that our models achieve the state-of-the-art link prediction results, especially with highly incomplete relational data.

The Gumbel trick is a method to sample from a discrete probability distribution, or to estimate its normalizing partition function. The method relies on repeatedly applying a random perturbation to the distribution in a particular way, each time solving for the most likely configuration. We derive an entire family of related methods, of which the Gumbel trick is one member, and show that the new methods have superior properties in several settings with minimal additional computational cost. In particular, for the Gumbel trick to yield computational benefits for discrete graphical models, Gumbel perturbations on all configurations are typically replaced with so-called low-rank perturbations. We show how a subfamily of our new methods adapts to this setting, proving new upper and lower bounds on the log partition function and deriving a family of sequential samplers for the Gibbs distribution. Finally, we balance the discussion by showing how the simpler analytical form of the Gumbel trick enables additional theoretical results.

We explore a recently proposed Variational Dropout technique that provided an elegant Bayesian interpretation to Gaussian Dropout. We extend Variational Dropout to the case when dropout rates are unbounded, propose a way to reduce the variance of the gradient estimator and report first experimental results with individual dropout rates per weight. Interestingly, it leads to extremely sparse solutions both in fully-connected and convolutional layers. This effect is similar to automatic relevance determination effect in empirical Bayes but has a number of advantages. We reduce the number of parameters up to 280 times on LeNet architectures and up to 68 times on VGG-like networks with a negligible decrease of accuracy.

We introduce a novel stochastic version of the non-reversible, rejection-free Bouncy Particle Sampler (BPS), a Markov process whose sample trajectories are piecewise linear. The algorithm is based on simulating first arrival times in a doubly stochastic Poisson process using the thinning method, and allows efficient sampling of Bayesian posteriors in big datasets. We prove that in the BPS no bias is introduced by noisy evaluations of the log-likelihood gradient. On the other hand, we argue that efficiency considerations favor a small, controllable bias in the construction of the thinning proposals, in exchange for faster mixing. We introduce a simple regression-based proposal intensity for the thinning method that controls this trade-off. We illustrate the algorithm in several examples in which it outperforms both unbiased, but slowly mixing stochastic versions of BPS, as well as biased stochastic gradient-based samplers.

Computational results demonstrate that posterior sampling for reinforcement learning (PSRL) dramatically outperforms algorithms driven by optimism, such as UCRL2. We provide insight into the extent of this performance boost and the phenomenon that drives it. We leverage this insight to establish an $\tilde{O}(H\sqrt{SAT})$ Bayesian expected regret bound for PSRL in finite-horizon episodic Markov decision processes, where $H$ is the horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions and $T$ is the time elapsed. This improves upon the best previous bound of $\tilde{O}(H S \sqrt{AT})$ for any reinforcement learning algorithm.

A Markov chain is a random process with the property that the next state depends only on the current state. For example: If you have the choice of red or blue twice the process would be Markovian if each time you chose the decision had nothing to do with your choice previously (see diagram below). How can Markov Chains help us? To start with we need to define some basic terminology. The changes of state within the system are called transitions, and the probabilities associated with various state-changes are called transition probabilities.

Along with the recent advances in scalable Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, sampling techniques that are based on Langevin diffusions have started receiving increasing attention. These so called Langevin Monte Carlo (LMC) methods are based on diffusions driven by a Brownian motion, which gives rise to Gaussian proposal distributions in the resulting algorithms. Even though these approaches have proven successful in many applications, their performance can be limited by the light-tailed nature of the Gaussian proposals. In this study, we extend classical LMC and develop a novel Fractional LMC (FLMC) framework that is based on a family of heavy-tailed distributions, called $\alpha$-stable L\'{e}vy distributions. As opposed to classical approaches, the proposed approach can possess large jumps while targeting the correct distribution, which would be beneficial for efficient exploration of the state space. We develop novel computational methods that can scale up to large-scale problems and we provide formal convergence analysis of the proposed scheme. Our experiments support our theory: FLMC can provide superior performance in multi-modal settings, improved convergence rates, and robustness to algorithm parameters.

This is a contribution to the formalization of the concept of agents in multivariate Markov chains. Agents are commonly defined as entities that act, perceive, and are goal-directed. In a multivariate Markov chain (e.g. a cellular automaton) the transition matrix completely determines the dynamics. This seems to contradict the possibility of acting entities within such a system. Here we present definitions of actions and perceptions within multivariate Markov chains based on entity-sets. Entity-sets represent a largely independent choice of a set of spatiotemporal patterns that are considered as all the entities within the Markov chain. For example, the entity-set can be chosen according to operational closure conditions or complete specific integration. Importantly, the perception-action loop also induces an entity-set and is a multivariate Markov chain. We then show that our definition of actions leads to non-heteronomy and that of perceptions specialize to the usual concept of perception in the perception-action loop.

A factor-graph representation of quantum-mechanical probabilities (involving any number of measurements) is proposed. Unlike standard statistical models, the proposed representation uses auxiliary variables (state variables) that are not random variables. All joint probability distributions are marginals of some complex-valued function $q$, and it is demonstrated how the basic concepts of quantum mechanics relate to factorizations and marginals of $q$.

We reinterpret multiplicative noise in neural networks as auxiliary random variables that augment the approximate posterior in a variational setting for Bayesian neural networks. We show that through this interpretation it is both efficient and straightforward to improve the approximation by employing normalizing flows (Rezende & Mohamed, 2015) while still allowing for local reparametrizations (Kingma et al., 2015) and a tractable lower bound (Ranganath et al., 2015; Maaløe et al., 2016). In experiments we show that with this new approximation we can significantly improve upon classical mean field for Bayesian neural networks on both predictive accuracy as well as predictive uncertainty.