Relational probabilistic models have the challenge of aggregation, where one variable depends on a population of other variables. Consider the problem of predicting gender from movie ratings; this is challenging because the number of movies per user and users per movie can vary greatly. Surprisingly, aggregation is not well understood. In this paper, we show that existing relational models (implicitly or explicitly) either use simple numerical aggregators that lose great amounts of information, or correspond to naive Bayes, logistic regression, or noisy-OR that suffer from overconfidence. We propose new simple aggregators and simple modifications of existing models that empirically outperform the existing ones. The intuition we provide on different (existing or new) models and their shortcomings plus our empirical findings promise to form the foundation for future representations.

Supervisory signals have the potential to make low-dimensional data representations, like those learned by mixture and topic models, more interpretable and useful. We propose a framework for training latent variable models that explicitly balances two goals: recovery of faithful generative explanations of high-dimensional data, and accurate prediction of associated semantic labels. Existing approaches fail to achieve these goals due to an incomplete treatment of a fundamental asymmetry: the intended application is always predicting labels from data, not data from labels. Our prediction-constrained objective for training generative models coherently integrates loss-based supervisory signals while enabling effective semi-supervised learning from partially labeled data. We derive learning algorithms for semi-supervised mixture and topic models using stochastic gradient descent with automatic differentiation. We demonstrate improved prediction quality compared to several previous supervised topic models, achieving predictions competitive with high-dimensional logistic regression on text sentiment analysis and electronic health records tasks while simultaneously learning interpretable topics.

The AMIDST Toolbox allows you to model your problem using a flexible probabilistic language based on graphical models. Then you fit your model with data using a Bayesian approach to handle modeling uncertainty. AMIDST provides tailored parallel (powered by Java 8 Streams) and distributed (powered by Flink or Spark) implementations of Bayesian parameter learning for batch and streaming data. This processing is based on flexible and scalable message passing algorithms. Data Streams: Update your models when new data is available.

We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a similarity function on the state space and scaling transition probabilities by pair-wise similarities, thereby inducing correlations among the transition distributions. We present an augmented data representation of the model as a Markov Jump Process in which: (1) some jump attempts fail, and (2) the probability of success is proportional to the similarity between the source and destination states. This augmentation restores conditional conjugacy and admits a simple Gibbs sampler. We evaluate the model and inference method on a speaker diarization task and a "harmonic parsing" task using four-part chorale data, as well as on several synthetic datasets, achieving favorable comparisons to existing models.

We consider the minimization of an objective function given access to unbiased estimates of the function gradients. This key methodological problem has raised interest in different communities: in large-scale machine learning (Bottou and Bousquet, 2008; Shalev-Shwartz et al., 2009, 2007), optimization (Nemirovski et al., 2009; Nesterov and Vial, 2008), and stochastic approximation (Kushner and Yin, 2003; Polyak and Juditsky, 1992; Ruppert, 1988). The most widely used algorithms are stochastic gradient descent(SGD), a.k.a. Robbins-Monro algorithm(Robbins and Monro, 1951), and some of its modifications based on averaging of the iterates (Polyak and Juditsky, 1992; Rakhlin et al., 2011; Shamir and Zhang, 2013). While the choice of the step-size may be done robustly in the deterministic case (see, e.g., Bertsekas, 1995), this remains a traditional theoretical and practical issue in the stochastic case. Indeed, early work suggested to use step-size decaying with the number k of iterations as O(1/k) (Robbins and Monro, 1951), but it appeared to be non-robust to ill-conditioning and slower decays such as O(1/ k) together with averaging lead to both good practical and theoretical performance (Bach, 2014). We consider in this paper constant step-size SGD, which is often used in practice. Although the algorithm is not converging in general to the global optimum of the objective function, constant step-sizes come with benefits: (a) there is single parameter value to set as opposed to the several choices of parameters to deal with decaying step-sizes, e.g., as 1/( k)

Neyman-Scott is a classic example of an estimation problem with a partially-consistent posterior, for which standard estimation methods tend to produce inconsistent results. Past attempts to create consistent estimators for Neyman-Scott have led to ad-hoc solutions, to estimators that do not satisfy representation invariance, to restrictions over the choice of prior and more. We present a simple construction for a general-purpose Bayes estimator, invariant to representation, which satisfies consistency on Neyman-Scott over any nondegenerate prior. We argue that the good attributes of the estimator are due to its intrinsic properties, and generalise beyond Neyman-Scott as well. Keywords: Neyman-Scott, consistent estimation, minEKL, Kullback-Leibler, Bayes estimation, invariance 1. Introduction In [24], Neyman and Scott introduced a problem in consistent estimation that has since been studied extensively in many fields (see [18] for a review).

For decomposable score-based structure learning of Bayesian networks, existing approaches first compute a collection of candidate parent sets for each variable and then optimize over this collection by choosing one parent set for each variable without creating directed cycles while maximizing the total score. We target the task of constructing the collection of candidate parent sets when the score of choice is the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). We provide new non-trivial results that can be used to prune the search space of candidate parent sets of each node. We analyze how these new results relate to previous ideas in the literature both theoretically and empirically. We show in experiments with UCI data sets that gains can be significant. Since the new pruning rules are easy to implement and have low computational costs, they can be promptly integrated into all state-of-the-art methods for structure learning of Bayesian networks.

Strict Minimum Message Length (SMML) is a statistical inference method widely cited (but only with informal arguments) as providing estimations that are consistent for general estimation problems. It is, however, almost invariably intractable to compute, for which reason only approximations of it (known as MML algorithms) are ever used in practice. We investigate the Neyman-Scott estimation problem, an oft-cited showcase for the consistency of MML, and show that even with a natural choice of prior, neither SMML nor its popular approximations are consistent for it, thereby providing a counterexample to the general claim. This is the first known explicit construction of an SMML solution for a natural, high-dimensional problem. We use the same novel construction methods to refute other claims regarding MML also appearing in the literature.

We propose a simple method that combines neural networks and Gaussian processes. The proposed method can estimate the uncertainty of outputs and flexibly adjust target functions where training data exist, which are advantages of Gaussian processes. The proposed method can also achieve high generalization performance for unseen input configurations, which is an advantage of neural networks. With the proposed method, neural networks are used for the mean functions of Gaussian processes. We present a scalable stochastic inference procedure, where sparse Gaussian processes are inferred by stochastic variational inference, and the parameters of neural networks and kernels are estimated by stochastic gradient descent methods, simultaneously. We use two real-world spatio-temporal data sets to demonstrate experimentally that the proposed method achieves better uncertainty estimation and generalization performance than neural networks and Gaussian processes.

The positivity assumption, or the experimental treatment assignment (ETA) assumption, is important for identifiability in causal inference. Even if the positivity assumption holds, practical violations of this assumption may jeopardize the finite sample performance of the causal estimator. One of the consequences of practical violations of the positivity assumption is extreme values in the estimated propensity score (PS). A common practice to address this issue is truncating the PS estimate when constructing PS-based estimators. In this study, we propose a novel adaptive truncation method, Positivity-C-TMLE, based on the collaborative targeted maximum likelihood estimation (C-TMLE) methodology. We demonstrate the outstanding performance of our novel approach in a variety of simulations by comparing it with other commonly studied estimators. Results show that by adaptively truncating the estimated PS with a more targeted objective function, the Positivity-C-TMLE estimator achieves the best performance for both point estimation and confidence interval coverage among all estimators considered.