Conditional probabilities are a core concept in machine learning. For example, optimal prediction of a label $Y$ given an input $X$ corresponds to maximizing the conditional probability of $Y$ given $X$. A common approach to inference tasks is learning a model of conditional probabilities. However, these models are often based on strong assumptions (e.g., log-linear models), and hence their estimate of conditional probabilities is not robust and is highly dependent on the validity of their assumptions. Here we propose a framework for reasoning about conditional probabilities without assuming anything about the underlying distributions, except knowledge of their second order marginals, which can be estimated from data. We show how this setting leads to guaranteed bounds on conditional probabilities, which can be calculated efficiently in a variety of settings, including structured-prediction. Finally, we apply them to semi-supervised deep learning, obtaining results competitive with variational autoencoders.

Count-based exploration algorithms are known to perform near-optimally when used in conjunction with tabular reinforcement learning (RL) methods for solving small discrete Markov decision processes (MDPs). It is generally thought that count-based methods cannot be applied in high-dimensional state spaces, since most states will only occur once. Recent deep RL exploration strategies are able to deal with high-dimensional continuous state spaces through complex heuristics, often relying on optimism in the face of uncertainty or intrinsic motivation. In this work, we describe a surprising finding: a simple generalization of the classic count-based approach can reach near state-of-the-art performance on various high-dimensional and/or continuous deep RL benchmarks. States are mapped to hash codes, which allows to count their occurrences with a hash table.

Factorial Hidden Markov Models (FHMMs) are powerful models for sequential data but they do not scale well with long sequences. We propose a scalable inference and learning algorithm for FHMMs that draws on ideas from the stochastic variational inference, neural network and copula literatures. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed algorithm requires no message passing procedure among latent variables and can be distributed to a network of computers to speed up learning. Our experiments corroborate that the proposed algorithm does not introduce further approximation bias compared to the proven structured mean-field algorithm, and achieves better performance with long sequences and large FHMMs.

We present a unified approach for learning the parameters of Sum-Product networks (SPNs). We prove that any complete and decomposable SPN is equivalent to a mixture of trees where each tree corresponds to a product of univariate distributions. Based on the mixture model perspective, we characterize the objective function when learning SPNs based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) principle and show that the optimization problem can be formulated as a signomial program. We construct two parameter learning algorithms for SPNs by using sequential monomial approximations (SMA) and the concave-convex procedure (CCCP), respectively. The two proposed methods naturally admit multiplicative updates, hence effectively avoiding the projection operation. With the help of the unified framework, we also show that, in the case of SPNs, CCCP leads to the same algorithm as Expectation Maximization (EM) despite the fact that they are different in general.

Directed latent variable models that formulate the joint distribution as $p(x,z) = p(z) p(x \mid z)$ have the advantage of fast and exact sampling. However, these models have the weakness of needing to specify $p(z)$, often with a simple fixed prior that limits the expressiveness of the model. Undirected latent variable models discard the requirement that $p(z)$ be specified with a prior, yet sampling from them generally requires an iterative procedure such as blocked Gibbs-sampling that may require many steps to draw samples from the joint distribution $p(x, z)$. We propose a novel approach to learning the joint distribution between the data and a latent code which uses an adversarially learned iterative procedure to gradually refine the joint distribution, $p(x, z)$, to better match with the data distribution on each step. GibbsNet is the best of both worlds both in theory and in practice. Achieving the speed and simplicity of a directed latent variable model, it is guaranteed (assuming the adversarial game reaches the virtual training criteria global minimum) to produce samples from $p(x, z)$ with only a few sampling iterations. Achieving the expressiveness and flexibility of an undirected latent variable model, GibbsNet does away with the need for an explicit $p(z)$ and has the ability to do attribute prediction, class-conditional generation, and joint image-attribute modeling in a single model which is not trained for any of these specific tasks. We show empirically that GibbsNet is able to learn a more complex $p(z)$ and show that this leads to improved inpainting and iterative refinement of $p(x, z)$ for dozens of steps and stable generation without collapse for thousands of steps, despite being trained on only a few steps.

Two seemingly contradictory theories attempt to explain how humans move to intercept an airborne ball. One theory posits that humans predict the ball trajectory to optimally plan future actions; the other claims that, instead of performing such complicated computations, humans employ heuristics to reactively choose appropriate actions based on immediate visual feedback. In this paper, we show that interception strategies appearing to be heuristics can be understood as computational solutions to the optimal control problem faced by a ball-catching agent acting under uncertainty. Modeling catching as a continuous partially observable Markov decision process and employing stochastic optimal control theory, we discover that the four main heuristics described in the literature are optimal solutions if the catcher has sufficient time to continuously visually track the ball. Specifically, by varying model parameters such as noise, time to ground contact, and perceptual latency, we show that different strategies arise under different circumstances. The catcher's policy switches between generating reactive and predictive behavior based on the ratio of system to observation noise and the ratio between reaction time and task duration. Thus, we provide a rational account of human ball-catching behavior and a unifying explanation for seemingly contradictory theories of target interception on the basis of stochastic optimal control.

A key problem in structured output prediction is enabling direct optimization of the task reward function that matters for test evaluation. This paper presents a simple and computationally efficient method that incorporates task reward into maximum likelihood training. We establish a connection between maximum likelihood and regularized expected reward, showing that they are approximately equivalent in the vicinity of the optimal solution. Then we show how maximum likelihood can be generalized by optimizing the conditional probability of auxiliary outputs that are sampled proportional to their exponentiated scaled rewards. We apply this framework to optimize edit distance in the output space, by sampling from edited targets. Experiments on speech recognition and machine translation for neural sequence to sequence models show notable improvements over maximum likelihood baseline by simply sampling from target output augmentations.

The use of Bayesian methods in large-scale data settings is attractive because of the rich hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, and prior specification they provide. Standard Bayesian inference algorithms are computationally expensive, however, making their direct application to large datasets difficult or infeasible. Recent work on scaling Bayesian inference has focused on modifying the underlying algorithms to, for example, use only a random data subsample at each iteration. We leverage the insight that data is often redundant to instead obtain a weighted subset of the data (called a coreset) that is much smaller than the original dataset. We can then use this small coreset in any number of existing posterior inference algorithms without modification.

A fundamental problem in cognitive neuroscience is how humans make decisions, act, and behave in relation to other humans. Here we adopt the hypothesis that when we are in an interactive social setting, our brains perform Bayesian inference of the intentions and cooperativeness of others using probabilistic representations. We employ the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to model human decision making in a social context, focusing specifically on the volunteer's dilemma in a version of the classic Public Goods Game. We show that the POMDP model explains both the behavior of subjects as well as neural activity recorded using fMRI during the game. The decisions of subjects can be modeled across all trials using two interpretable parameters. Furthermore, the expected reward predicted by the model for each subject was correlated with the activation of brain areas related to reward expectation in social interactions. Our results suggest a probabilistic basis for human social decision making within the framework of expected reward maximization.

In recent years, a rapidly increasing number of applications in practice requires solving non-convex objectives, like training neural networks, learning graphical models, maximum likelihood estimation etc. Though simple heuristics such as gradient descent with very few modifications tend to work well, theoretical understanding is very weak. We consider possibly the most natural class of non-convex functions where one could hope to obtain provable guarantees: functions that are ``approximately convex'', i.e. functions $\tf: \Real^d \to \Real$ for which there exists a \emph{convex function} $f$ such that for all $x$, $|\tf(x) - f(x)| \le \errnoise$ for a fixed value $\errnoise$.