Inpatient care is a large share of total health care spending, making analysis of inpatient utilization patterns an important part of understanding what drives health care spending growth. Common features of inpatient utilization measures include zero inflation, over-dispersion, and skewness, all of which complicate statistical modeling. Mixture modeling is a popular approach that can accommodate these features of health care utilization data. In this work, we add a nonparametric clustering component to such models. Our fully Bayesian model framework allows for an unknown number of mixing components, so that the data determine the number of mixture components. When we apply the modeling framework to data on hospital lengths of stay for patients with lung cancer, we find distinct subgroups of patients with differences in means and variances of hospital days, health and treatment covariates, and relationships between covariates and length of stay.

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a technique for finding latent representations of data. The method has been applied to corpora to construct topic models. However, NMF has likelihood assumptions which are often violated by real document corpora. We present a double parametric bootstrap test for evaluating the fit of an NMF-based topic model based on the duality of the KL divergence and Poisson maximum likelihood estimation. The test correctly identifies whether a topic model based on an NMF approach yields reliable results in simulated and real data.

We propose a framework, named Aggregated Wasserstein, for computing a dissimilarity measure or distance between two Hidden Markov Models with state conditional distributions being Gaussian. For such HMMs, the marginal distribution at any time position follows a Gaussian mixture distribution, a fact exploited to softly match, aka register, the states in two HMMs. We refer to such HMMs as Gaussian mixture model-HMM (GMM-HMM). The registration of states is inspired by the intrinsic relationship of optimal transport and the Wasserstein metric between distributions. Specifically, the components of the marginal GMMs are matched by solving an optimal transport problem where the cost between components is the Wasserstein metric for Gaussian distributions. The solution of the optimization problem is a fast approximation to the Wasserstein metric between two GMMs. The new Aggregated Wasserstein distance is a semi-metric and can be computed without generating Monte Carlo samples. It is invariant to relabeling or permutation of states. The distance is defined meaningfully even for two HMMs that are estimated from data of different dimensionality, a situation that can arise due to missing variables. This distance quantifies the dissimilarity of GMM-HMMs by measuring both the difference between the two marginal GMMs and that between the two transition matrices. Our new distance is tested on tasks of retrieval, classification, and t-SNE visualization of time series. Experiments on both synthetic and real data have demonstrated its advantages in terms of accuracy as well as efficiency in comparison with existing distances based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence.

Using conditional probability gives Bayes Nets strong analytical advantages over traditional regression-based models. This adds to several advantages we discussed in an earlier article. But what is conditional probability and what makes it different? In short, conditional probability means that the effects of one variable depend on, of flow from, the distribution of another variable (or others). The complete state of one variable determines how another acts.

We present a robust generalization of the synthetic control method for comparative case studies. Like the classical method, we present an algorithm to estimate the unobservable counterfactual of a treatment unit. A distinguishing feature of our algorithm is that of de-noising the data matrix via singular value thresholding, which renders our approach robust in multiple facets: it automatically identifies a good subset of donors, overcomes the challenges of missing data, and continues to work well in settings where covariate information may not be provided. To begin, we establish the condition under which the fundamental assumption in synthetic control-like approaches holds, i.e. when the linear relationship between the treatment unit and the donor pool prevails in both the pre- and post-intervention periods. We provide the first finite sample analysis for a broader class of models, the Latent Variable Model, in contrast to Factor Models previously considered in the literature. Further, we show that our de-noising procedure accurately imputes missing entries, producing a consistent estimator of the underlying signal matrix provided $p = \Omega( T^{-1 + \zeta})$ for some $\zeta > 0$; here, $p$ is the fraction of observed data and $T$ is the time interval of interest. Under the same setting, we prove that the mean-squared-error (MSE) in our prediction estimation scales as $O(\sigma^2/p + 1/\sqrt{T})$, where $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance. Using a data aggregation method, we show that the MSE can be made as small as $O(T^{-1/2+\gamma})$ for any $\gamma \in (0, 1/2)$, leading to a consistent estimator. We also introduce a Bayesian framework to quantify the model uncertainty through posterior probabilities. Our experiments, using both real-world and synthetic datasets, demonstrate that our robust generalization yields an improvement over the classical synthetic control method.

We introduce the Givens Transform, a novel transform between the space of orthonormal matrices and $\mathbb{R}^D$. The Givens Transform allows for the application of any general Bayesian inference algorithm to probabilistic models containing constrained unit-vectors or orthonormal matrix parameters. This includes a variety of matrix factorizations and dimensionality reduction models such as Probabilistic PCA (PPCA), Exponential Family PPCA (BXPCA), and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). While previous Bayesian approaches to these models relied on separate sampling update rules for constrained and unconstrained parameters, the Givens Transform enables the treatment of unit-vectors and orthonormal matrices agnostically as unconstrained parameters. Thus any Bayesian inference algorithm can be used on these models without modification. This opens the door to not just sampling algorithms, but Variational Inference (VI) as well. We illustrate with several examples and supplied code, how the Givens Transform allows end-users to easily build complex models in their favorite Bayesian modeling framework such as Stan, Edward, or PyMC3, a task that was previously intractable due to technical constraints.

We present an information-theoretic framework for bounding the number of labeled samples needed to train a classifier in a parametric Bayesian setting. We derive bounds on the average $L_p$ distance between the learned classifier and the true maximum a posteriori classifier, which are well-established surrogates for the excess classification error due to imperfect learning. We provide lower and upper bounds on the rate-distortion function, using $L_p$ loss as the distortion measure, of a maximum a priori classifier in terms of the differential entropy of the posterior distribution and a quantity called the interpolation dimension, which characterizes the complexity of the parametric distribution family. In addition to expressing the information content of a classifier in terms of lossy compression, the rate-distortion function also expresses the minimum number of bits a learning machine needs to extract from training data to learn a classifier to within a specified $L_p$ tolerance. We use results from universal source coding to express the information content in the training data in terms of the Fisher information of the parametric family and the number of training samples available. The result is a framework for computing lower bounds on the Bayes $L_p$ risk. This framework complements the well-known probably approximately correct (PAC) framework, which provides minimax risk bounds involving the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension or Rademacher complexity. Whereas the PAC framework provides upper bounds the risk for the worst-case data distribution, the proposed rate-distortion framework lower bounds the risk averaged over the data distribution. We evaluate the bounds for a variety of data models, including categorical, multinomial, and Gaussian models. In each case the bounds are provably tight orderwise, and in two cases we prove that the bounds are tight up to multiplicative constants.

The lack of interpretability remains a key barrier to the adoption of deep models in many applications. In this work, we explicitly regularize deep models so human users might step through the process behind their predictions in little time. Specifically, we train deep time-series models so their class-probability predictions have high accuracy while being closely modeled by decision trees with few nodes. Using intuitive toy examples as well as medical tasks for treating sepsis and HIV, we demonstrate that this new tree regularization yields models that are easier for humans to simulate than simpler L1 or L2 penalties without sacrificing predictive power.

Recently, crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective paradigm for human-powered large scale problem solving in various domains. However, task requester usually has a limited amount of budget, thus it is desirable to have a policy to wisely allocate the budget to achieve better quality. In this paper, we study the principle of information maximization for active sampling strategies in the framework of HodgeRank, an approach based on Hodge Decomposition of pairwise ranking data with multiple workers. The principle exhibits two scenarios of active sampling: Fisher information maximization that leads to unsupervised sampling based on a sequential maximization of graph algebraic connectivity without considering labels; and Bayesian information maximization that selects samples with the largest information gain from prior to posterior, which gives a supervised sampling involving the labels collected. Experiments show that the proposed methods boost the sampling efficiency as compared to traditional sampling schemes and are thus valuable to practical crowdsourcing experiments.

Many efforts have been devoted to training generative latent variable models with autoregressive decoders, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN). Stochastic recurrent models have been successful in capturing the variability observed in natural sequential data such as speech. We unify successful ideas from recently proposed architectures into a stochastic recurrent model: each step in the sequence is associated with a latent variable that is used to condition the recurrent dynamics for future steps. Training is performed with amortized variational inference where the approximate posterior is augmented with a RNN that runs backward through the sequence. In addition to maximizing the variational lower bound, we ease training of the latent variables by adding an auxiliary cost which forces them to reconstruct the state of the backward recurrent network. This provides the latent variables with a task-independent objective that enhances the performance of the overall model. We found this strategy to perform better than alternative approaches such as KL annealing. Although being conceptually simple, our model achieves state-of-the-art results on standard speech benchmarks such as TIMIT and Blizzard and competitive performance on sequential MNIST. Finally, we apply our model to language modeling on the IMDB dataset where the auxiliary cost helps in learning interpretable latent variables. Source Code: \url{https://github.com/anirudh9119/zforcing_nips17}