Using an artificial intelligence-based algorithm that uses scattered light data from tissues, researchers from IISER Kolkata and IIT Kanpur have been able to differentiate normal and precancerous tissue, and even identify the different stages of progression of the disease within a few minutes and with great accuracy. In vivo studies are now being carried out. The morphology of healthy and precancerous cervical tissue sites are quite different, and light that gets scattered from these tissues varies accordingly. Yet, it is difficult to discern with naked eyes the subtle differences in the scattered light characteristics of normal and precancerous tissue. Now, an artificial intelligence-based algorithm developed by a team of researchers from Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata and Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur makes this possible.

So, what are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods? In this article, I will explain that short answer, without any math. A parameter of interest is just some number that summarizes a phenomenon we're interested in. In general we use statistics to estimate parameters. For example, if we want to learn about the height of human adults, our parameter of interest might be average height in in inches.

Variational inference [25, 7, 40] is now a well-established tool to approximate intractable posterior distributions in hierarchical multi-layered Bayesian models. The traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC; [17]) approach of approximating distributions with intractable normalizing constants draws (correlated) samples according to a discrete-time Markov chain whose stationary distribution is the target distribution. Despite their success and popularity, MCMC methods can be slow to converge and lack scalability in big data problems and/or problems involving very many latent variables, which has fueled search for alternatives. In contrast to the sampling approach of MCMC, variational inference approaches the problem from an optimization viewpoint. First, a class of analytically tractable distributions, referred to as the variational family, is identified for the problem at hand. For example, in mean-field approximation, the set of parameters and latent variables is divided into blocks and the variational distribution is assumed to be independent across blocks.

Given a hierarchical plan (or schedule) with uncertain task times, we propose a deterministic polynomial (time and memory) algorithm for estimating the probability that its meets a deadline, or, alternately, that its {\em makespan} is less than a given duration. Approximation is needed as it is known that this problem is NP-hard even for sequential plans (just, a sum of random variables). In addition, we show two new complexity results: (1) Counting the number of events that do not cross deadline is \#P-hard; (2)~Computing the expected makespan of a hierarchical plan is NP-hard. For the proposed approximation algorithm, we establish formal approximation bounds and show that the time and memory complexities grow polynomially with the required accuracy, the number of nodes in the plan, and with the size of the support of the random variables that represent the durations of the primitive tasks. We examine these approximation bounds empirically and demonstrate, using task networks taken from the literature, how our scheme outperforms sampling techniques and exact computation in terms of accuracy and run-time. As the empirical data shows much better error bounds than guaranteed, we also suggest a method for tightening the bounds in some cases.

Aims: This course provides students with an in-depth introduction to statistical modelling and unsupervised learning techniques. It presents probabilistic approaches to modelling and their relation to coding theory and Bayesian statistics. A variety of latent variable models will be covered including mixture models (used for clustering), dimensionality reduction methods, time series models such as hidden Markov models which are used in speech recognition and bioinformatics, independent components analysis, hierarchical models, and nonlinear models. The course will present the foundations of probabilistic graphical models (e.g. We will cover Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods and variational approximations for inference. Time permitting, students will also learn about other topics in machine learning.

Abstract--Long Short-T erm Memory networks trained with gradient descent and back-propagation have received great success in various applications. However, point estimation of the weights of the networks is prone to over-fitting problems and lacks important uncertainty information associated with the estimation. However, exact Bayesian neural network methods are intractable and non-applicable for real-world applications. In this study, we propose an approximate estimation of the weights uncertainty using Ensemble Kalman Filter, which is easily scalable to a large number of weights. T o assess the proposed algorithm, we apply it to outlier detection in five real-world events retrieved from the Twitter platform. I NTRODUCTION The recent resurgence of neural network trained with back-propagation has established state-of-art results in a wide range of domains. However, backpropagation-based neural networks (NN) are associated with many disadvantages, including but not limited to, the lack of uncertainty estimation, tendency of overfitting small data, and tuning of many hyper-parameters.

We develop efficient algorithms for estimating low-degree moments of unknown distributions in the presence of adversarial outliers. The guarantees of our algorithms improve in many cases significantly over the best previous ones, obtained in recent works of Diakonikolas et al, Lai et al, and Charikar et al. We also show that the guarantees of our algorithms match information-theoretic lower-bounds for the class of distributions we consider. These improved guarantees allow us to give improved algorithms for independent component analysis and learning mixtures of Gaussians in the presence of outliers. Our algorithms are based on a standard sum-of-squares relaxation of the following conceptually-simple optimization problem: Among all distributions whose moments are bounded in the same way as for the unknown distribution, find the one that is closest in statistical distance to the empirical distribution of the adversarially-corrupted sample.

We derive a novel variational expectation maximization approach based on truncated variational distributions. Truncated distributions are proportional to exact posteriors within a subset of a discrete state space and equal zero otherwise. The novel variational approach is realized by first generalizing the standard variational EM framework to include variational distributions with exact (`hard') zeros. A fully variational treatment of truncated distributions then allows for deriving novel and mathematically grounded results, which in turn can be used to formulate novel efficient algorithms to optimize the parameters of probabilistic generative models. We find the free energies which correspond to truncated distributions to be given by concise and efficiently computable expressions, while update equations for model parameters (M-steps) remain in their standard form. Furthermore, we obtain generic expressions for expectation values w.r.t. truncated distributions. Based on these observations, we show how efficient and easily applicable meta-algorithms can be formulated that guarantee a monotonic increase of the free energy. Example applications of the here derived framework provide novel theoretical results and learning procedures for latent variable models as well as mixture models including procedures to tightly couple sampling and variational optimization approaches. Furthermore, by considering a special case of truncated variational distributions, we can cleanly and fully embed the well-known `hard EM' approaches into the variational EM framework, and we show that `hard EM' (for models with discrete latents) provably optimizes a lower free energy bound of the data log-likelihood.

This work investigates training Conditional Random Fields (CRF) by Stochastic Dual Coordinate Ascent (SDCA). SDCA enjoys a linear convergence rate and a strong empirical performance for independent classification problems. However, it has never been used to train CRF. Yet it benefits from an exact line search with a single marginalization oracle call, unlike previous approaches. In this paper, we adapt SDCA to train CRF and we enhance it with an adaptive non-uniform sampling strategy. Our preliminary experiments suggest that this method matches state-of-the-art CRF optimization techniques.

Training deep neural networks is known to require a large number of training samples. However, in many applications only few training samples are available. In this work, we tackle the issue of training neural networks for classification task when few training samples are available. We attempt to solve this issue by proposing a new regularization term that constrains the hidden layers of a network to learn class-wise invariant representations. In our regularization framework, learning invariant representations is generalized to the class membership where samples with the same class should have the same representation. Numerical experiments over MNIST and its variants showed that our proposal helps improving the generalization of neural network particularly when trained with few samples.