In marketing we are often confronted with a continuous stream of responses to marketing messages. Such streaming data provide invaluable information regarding message effectiveness and segmentation. However, streaming data are hard to analyze using conventional methods: their high volume and the fact that they are continuously augmented means that it takes considerable time to analyze them. We propose a method for estimating a finite mixture of logistic regression models which can be used to cluster customers based on a continuous stream of responses. This method, which we coin oFMLR, allows segments to be identified in data streams or extremely large static datasets. Contrary to black box algorithms, oFMLR provides model estimates that are directly interpretable. We first introduce oFMLR, explaining in passing general topics such as online estimation and the EM algorithm, making this paper a high level overview of possible methods of dealing with large data streams in marketing practice. Next, we discuss model convergence, identifiability, and relations to alternative, Bayesian, methods; we also identify more general issues that arise from dealing with continuously augmented data sets. Finally, we introduce the oFMLR [R] package and evaluate the method by numerical simulation and by analyzing a large customer clickstream dataset.

Thus, large arrays of textual data, which have been rapidly accumulating on the Internet in the last decade, require ever more complex methods for their automatic processing and modeling. For this, a wide range of mathematical tools, including topic models, is used [1], but their properties and behavior remain little studied so far, which makes it impossible to choose the optimal parameters of such models. If, however, we consider the results of topic modeling as nonequilibrium complex systems (since these, as will be shown below, have the characteristics of such systems), this would make it possible to apply to them a whole range of approaches from statistical physics. First of all, these are models for analyzing the processes of self-organization of large ensembles. The basis for such an analysis may be an approach in which the behavior of the topic model of a textual collection as a word ensemble would be determined by thermodynamic functions, such as entropy or free energy. It is known that complex systems can be characterized by exponential and power law distributions, which is especially characteristic for social [2, 3], biological [4, 5] and economic systems [6, 7].

Estimating uncertainty is important to improving the safety of AI systems. Recently baseline tasks and metrics have been defined and several practical methods for estimating uncertainty developed. However, these approaches attempt to model distributional uncertainty either implicitly through model uncertainty or as data uncertainty. This work proposes a new framework for modeling predictive uncertainty called Prior Networks (PNs) which explicitly models distributional uncertainty. PNs do this by parameterizing a prior distribution over predictive distributions. This work focuses on uncertainty for classification and evaluates PNs on the tasks of identifying out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and detecting misclassification on the MNIST dataset, where they are found to outperform previous methods. Experiments on synthetic and MNIST data show that unlike previous methods PNs are able to distinguish between data and distributional uncertainty.

Complex network data may be analyzed by constructing statistical models that accurately reproduce structural properties that may be of theoretical relevance or empirical interest. In the context of the efficient fitting of models for large network data, we propose a very efficient algorithm for the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the parameters of complex statistical models. The proposed algorithm is similar to the famous Metropolis algorithm but allows a Monte Carlo simulation to be performed while constraining the desired network properties. We demonstrate the algorithm in the context of exponential random graph models (ERGMs) - a family of statistical models for network data. Thus far, the lack of efficient computational methods has limited the empirical scope of ERGMs to relatively small networks with a few thousand nodes. The proposed approach allows a dramatic increase in the size of networks that may be analyzed using ERGMs. This is illustrated in an analysis of several biological networks and one social network with 104,103 nodes.

Following related work in law and policy, two notions of disparity have come to shape the study of fairness in algorithmic decision-making. Algorithms exhibit treatment disparity if they formally treat members of protected subgroups differently; algorithms exhibit impact disparity when outcomes differ across subgroups, even if the correlation arises unintentionally. Naturally, we can achieve impact parity through purposeful treatment disparity. In one thread of technical work, papers aim to reconcile the two forms of parity proposing disparate learning processes (DLPs). Here, the learning algorithm can see group membership during training but produce a classifier that is group-blind at test time. In this paper, we show theoretically that: (i) When other features correlate to group membership, DLPs will (indirectly) implement treatment disparity, undermining the policy desiderata they are designed to address; (ii) When group membership is partly revealed by other features, DLPs induce within-class discrimination; and (iii) In general, DLPs provide a suboptimal trade-off between accuracy and impact parity. Based on our technical analysis, we argue that transparent treatment disparity is preferable to occluded methods for achieving impact parity. Experimental results on several real-world datasets highlight the practical consequences of applying DLPs vs. per-group thresholds.

We propose a framework for modeling and estimating the state of controlled dynamical systems, where an agent can affect the system through actions and receives partial observations. Based on this framework, we propose the Predictive State Representation with Random Fourier Features (RFFPSR). A key property in RFF-PSRs is that the state estimate is represented by a conditional distribution of future observations given future actions. RFF-PSRs combine this representation with moment-matching, kernel embedding and local optimization to achieve a method that enjoys several favorable qualities: It can represent controlled environments which can be affected by actions; it has an efficient and theoretically justified learning algorithm; it uses a non-parametric representation that has expressive power to represent continuous non-linear dynamics. We provide a detailed formulation, a theoretical analysis and an experimental evaluation that demonstrates the effectiveness of our method.

Before I wrote the JavaScripts, I got a master's in AI (almost a decade ago), and wrote a thesis on a weird and new area in Reinforcement Learning. Or at least it was new then. With all the hype around Machine Learning and Deep Learning, I thought it would be neat if I wrote a little primer on what Reinforcement Learning really means, and why it's different than just another neural net. Richard Sutton and Andrew Barto wrote an amazing book called "Reinforcement Learning: an introduction"; it's my favourite non-fiction book I have ever read in my life, and it's why I fell in love with RL. The complete draft is available for free here, and if you're into math, and want to explore this topic further, I can't recommend it enough.

In machine learning, there's something called the "No Free Lunch" theorem. In a nutshell, it states that no one algorithm works best for every problem, and it's especially relevant for supervised learning (i.e. For example, you can't say that neural networks are always better than decision trees or vice-versa. There are many factors at play, such as the size and structure of your dataset. As a result, you should try many different algorithms for your problem, while using a hold-out "test set" of data to evaluate performance and select the winner.

In a February 6 blog, I discussed the unsupervised machine learning Naive Bayes algorithm with an example that was hopefully easy to understand for beginners. During the summer of 2017, I began a five-part series on types of machine learning. That series included more details about k-Nearest neighbor, K-means clustering, Singular Value Decomposition, Principal Component Analysis, Apriori, Frequent Pattern-Growth and more. Today I want to expand on the ideas presented in my Support Vector "Data Science in 90 Seconds" YouTube video and continue the discussion in plain language. If you recall from earlier discussions, supervised machine learning is the'task of inferring a function to describe hidden structure from labeled data'.

The rapid growth of storage capacity and processing power has caused machine learning applications to increasingly rely on using immense amounts of labeled data. It has become more important than ever to have fast and inexpensive ways to annotate vast amounts of data. With the emergence of crowdsourcing services, the research direction has gravitated toward putting the wisdom of crowds to better use. Unfortunately, spammers and inattentive annotators pose a threat to the quality and trustworthiness of the consensus. Thus, high quality consensus estimation from crowd annotated data requires a meticulous choice of the candidate annotator and the sample in need of a new annotation. Due to time and budget limitations, it is of utmost importance that this choice is carried out while the annotation collection is in progress. We call this process active crowd-labeling. To this end, we propose an active crowd-labeling approach for actively estimating consensus from continuous-valued crowd annotations. Our method is based on annotator models with unknown parameters, and Bayesian inference is employed to reach a consensus in the form of ordinal, binary, or continuous values. We introduce ranking functions for choosing the candidate annotator and sample pair for requesting an annotation. In addition, we propose a penalizing method for preventing annotator domination, investigate the explore-exploit trade-off for incorporating new annotators into the system, and study the effects of inducing a stopping criterion based on consensus quality. We also introduce the crowd-labeled Head Pose Annotations datasets. Experimental results on the benchmark datasets used in the literature and the Head Pose Annotations datasets suggest that our method provides high-quality consensus by using as few as one fifth of the annotations (~80% cost reduction), thereby providing a budget and time-sensitive solution to the crowd-labeling problem.