Two seemingly contradictory theories attempt to explain how humans move to intercept an airborne ball. One theory posits that humans predict the ball trajectory to optimally plan future actions; the other claims that, instead of performing such complicated computations, humans employ heuristics to reactively choose appropriate actions based on immediate visual feedback. In this paper, we show that interception strategies appearing to be heuristics can be understood as computational solutions to the optimal control problem faced by a ball-catching agent acting under uncertainty. Modeling catching as a continuous partially observable Markov decision process and employing stochastic optimal control theory, we discover that the four main heuristics described in the literature are optimal solutions if the catcher has sufficient time to continuously visually track the ball. Specifically, by varying model parameters such as noise, time to ground contact, and perceptual latency, we show that different strategies arise under different circumstances. The catcher's policy switches between generating reactive and predictive behavior based on the ratio of system to observation noise and the ratio between reaction time and task duration. Thus, we provide a rational account of human ball-catching behavior and a unifying explanation for seemingly contradictory theories of target interception on the basis of stochastic optimal control.

A key problem in structured output prediction is enabling direct optimization of the task reward function that matters for test evaluation. This paper presents a simple and computationally efficient method that incorporates task reward into maximum likelihood training. We establish a connection between maximum likelihood and regularized expected reward, showing that they are approximately equivalent in the vicinity of the optimal solution. Then we show how maximum likelihood can be generalized by optimizing the conditional probability of auxiliary outputs that are sampled proportional to their exponentiated scaled rewards. We apply this framework to optimize edit distance in the output space, by sampling from edited targets. Experiments on speech recognition and machine translation for neural sequence to sequence models show notable improvements over maximum likelihood baseline by simply sampling from target output augmentations.

The use of Bayesian methods in large-scale data settings is attractive because of the rich hierarchical models, uncertainty quantification, and prior specification they provide. Standard Bayesian inference algorithms are computationally expensive, however, making their direct application to large datasets difficult or infeasible. Recent work on scaling Bayesian inference has focused on modifying the underlying algorithms to, for example, use only a random data subsample at each iteration. We leverage the insight that data is often redundant to instead obtain a weighted subset of the data (called a coreset) that is much smaller than the original dataset. We can then use this small coreset in any number of existing posterior inference algorithms without modification.

A fundamental problem in cognitive neuroscience is how humans make decisions, act, and behave in relation to other humans. Here we adopt the hypothesis that when we are in an interactive social setting, our brains perform Bayesian inference of the intentions and cooperativeness of others using probabilistic representations. We employ the framework of partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to model human decision making in a social context, focusing specifically on the volunteer's dilemma in a version of the classic Public Goods Game. We show that the POMDP model explains both the behavior of subjects as well as neural activity recorded using fMRI during the game. The decisions of subjects can be modeled across all trials using two interpretable parameters. Furthermore, the expected reward predicted by the model for each subject was correlated with the activation of brain areas related to reward expectation in social interactions. Our results suggest a probabilistic basis for human social decision making within the framework of expected reward maximization.

In recent years, a rapidly increasing number of applications in practice requires solving non-convex objectives, like training neural networks, learning graphical models, maximum likelihood estimation etc. Though simple heuristics such as gradient descent with very few modifications tend to work well, theoretical understanding is very weak. We consider possibly the most natural class of non-convex functions where one could hope to obtain provable guarantees: functions that are ``approximately convex'', i.e. functions $\tf: \Real^d \to \Real$ for which there exists a \emph{convex function} $f$ such that for all $x$, $|\tf(x) - f(x)| \le \errnoise$ for a fixed value $\errnoise$.

Accurately differentiating between what are truly unpredictably random and systematic changes that occur at random can have profound effect on affect and cognition. To examine the underlying computational principles that guide different learning behavior in an uncertain environment, we compared an R-W model and a Bayesian approach in a visual search task with different volatility levels. Both R-W model and the Bayesian approach reflected an individual's estimation of the environmental volatility, and there is a strong correlation between the learning rate in R-W model and the belief of stationarity in the Bayesian approach in different volatility conditions. In a low volatility condition, R-W model indicates that learning rate positively correlates with lose-shift rate, but not choice optimality (inverted U shape). The Bayesian approach indicates that the belief of environmental stationarity positively correlates with choice optimality, but not lose-shift rate (inverted U shape). In addition, we showed that comparing to Expert learners, individuals with high lose-shift rate (sub-optimal learners) had significantly higher learning rate estimated from R-W model and lower belief of stationarity from the Bayesian model.

We consider the problem of learning Bayesian networks optimally, when subject to background knowledge in the form of ancestral constraints. Our approach is based on a recently proposed framework for optimal structure learning based on non-decomposable scores, which is general enough to accommodate ancestral constraints. The proposed framework exploits oracles for learning structures using decomposable scores, which cannot accommodate ancestral constraints since they are non-decomposable. We show how to empower these oracles by passing them decomposable constraints that they can handle, which are inferred from ancestral constraints that they cannot handle. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach can be orders-of-magnitude more efficient than alternative frameworks, such as those based on integer linear programming.

Variational approaches are often used to approximate intractable posteriors or normalization constants in hierarchical latent variable models. While often effective in practice, it is known that the approximation error can be arbitrarily large. We propose a new class of bounds on the marginal log-likelihood of directed latent variable models. Our approach relies on random projections to simplify the posterior. In contrast to standard variational methods, our bounds are guaranteed to be tight with high probability. We provide a new approach for learning latent variable models based on optimizing our new bounds on the log-likelihood. We demonstrate empirical improvements on benchmark datasets in vision and language for sigmoid belief networks, where a neural network is used to approximate the posterior.

This paper presents a probabilistic-graphical model that can be used to infer characteristics of instantaneous brain activity by jointly analyzing spatial and temporal dependencies observed in electroencephalograms (EEG). Specifically, we describe a factor-graph-based model with customized factor-functions defined based on domain knowledge, to infer pathologic brain activity with the goal of identifying seizure-generating brain regions in epilepsy patients. We utilize an inference technique based on the graph-cut algorithm to exactly solve graph inference in polynomial time. We validate the model by using clinically collected intracranial EEG data from 29 epilepsy patients to show that the model correctly identifies seizure-generating brain regions. Our results indicate that our model outperforms two conventional approaches used for seizure-onset localization (5-7% better AUC: 0.72, 0.67, 0.65) and that the proposed inference technique provides 3-10% gain in AUC ( 0.72, 0.62, 0.69) compared to sampling-based alternatives.

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