Variational Bayes methods are popular due to their computational efficiency and adaptability to diverse applications. In specifying the variational family, mean-field classes are commonly used, which enables efficient algorithms such as coordinate ascent variational inference (CAVI) but fails to capture parameter dependence and typically underestimates uncertainty. In this work, we introduce a variational bagging approach that integrates a bagging procedure with variational Bayes, resulting in a bagged variational posterior for improved inference. We establish strong theoretical guarantees, including posterior contraction rates for general models and a Bernstein-von Mises (BVM) type theorem that ensures valid uncertainty quantification. Notably, our results show that even when using a mean-field variational family, our approach can recover off-diagonal elements of the limiting covariance structure and provide proper uncertainty quantification. In addition, variational bagging is robust to model misspecification, with covariance structures matching those of the target covariance. We illustrate our variational bagging method in numerical studies through applications to parametric models, finite mixture models, deep neural networks, and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

Modeling nonlinear systems with Volterra series is challenging because the number of kernel coefficients grows exponentially with the model order. This work introduces Bayesian Tensor Network Volterra kernel machines (BTN-V), extending the Bayesian Tensor Network framework to Volterra system identification. BTN-V represents Volterra kernels using canonical polyadic decomposition, reducing model complexity from O(I^D) to O(DIR). By treating all tensor components and hyperparameters as random variables, BTN-V provides predictive uncertainty estimation at no additional computational cost. Sparsity-inducing hierarchical priors enable automatic rank determination and the learning of fading-memory behavior directly from data, improving interpretability and preventing overfitting. Empirical results demonstrate competitive accuracy, enhanced uncertainty quantification, and reduced computational cost.

The predict-then-optimize paradigm bridges online learning and contextual optimization in dynamic environments. Previous works have investigated the sequential updating of predictors using feedback from downstream decisions to minimize regret in the full-information settings. However, existing approaches are predominantly frequentist, rely heavily on gradient-based strategies, and employ deterministic predictors that could yield high variance in practice despite their asymptotic guarantees. This work introduces, to the best of our knowledge, the first Bayesian online contextual optimization framework. Grounded in PAC-Bayes theory and general Bayesian updating principles, our framework achieves $\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{T})$ regret for bounded and mixable losses via a Gibbs posterior, eliminates the dependence on gradients through sequential Monte Carlo samplers, and thereby accommodates nondifferentiable problems. Theoretical developments and numerical experiments substantiate our claims.

Clustering is widely used in unsupervised learning to find homogeneous groups of observations within a dataset. However, clustering mixed-type data remains a challenge, as few existing approaches are suited for this task. This study presents the state-of-the-art of these approaches and compares them using various simulation models. The compared methods include the distance-based approaches k-prototypes, PDQ, and convex k-means, and the probabilistic methods KAy-means for MIxed LArge data (KAMILA), the mixture of Bayesian networks (MBNs), and latent class model (LCM). The aim is to provide insights into the behavior of different methods across a wide range of scenarios by varying some experimental factors such as the number of clusters, cluster overlap, sample size, dimension, proportion of continuous variables in the dataset, and clusters' distribution. The degree of cluster overlap and the proportion of continuous variables in the dataset and the sample size have a significant impact on the observed performances. When strong interactions exist between variables alongside an explicit dependence on cluster membership, none of the evaluated methods demonstrated satisfactory performance. In our experiments KAMILA, LCM, and k-prototypes exhibited the best performance, with respect to the adjusted rand index (ARI). All the methods are available in R.

This study investigates the limitations of applying Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to arbitrary objective functions, focusing on a two-block MCMC framework which alternates between Metropolis-Hastings and Gibbs sampling. While such approaches are often considered advantageous for enabling data-driven regularization, we show that their performance critically depends on the sharpness of the employed likelihood form. By introducing a sharpness parameter and exploring alternative likelihood formulations proportional to the target objective function, we demonstrate how likelihood curvature governs both in-sample performance and the degree of regularization inferred by the training data. Empirical applications are conducted on reinforcement learning tasks: including a navigation problem and the game of tic-tac-toe. The study concludes with a separate analysis examining the implications of extreme likelihood sharpness on arbitrary objective functions stemming from the classic game of blackjack, where the first block of the two-block MCMC framework is replaced with an iterative optimization step. The resulting hybrid approach achieves performance nearly identical to the original MCMC framework, indicating that excessive likelihood sharpness effectively collapses posterior mass onto a single dominant mode.

The Heckman selection model is one of the most well-renounced econometric models in the analysis of data with sample selection. This model is designed to rectify sample selection biases based on the assumption of bivariate normal error terms. However, real data diverge from this assumption in the presence of heavy tails and/or atypical observations. Recently, this assumption has been relaxed via a more flexible Student's t-distribution, which has appealing statistical properties. This paper introduces a novel Heckman selection model using a bivariate contaminated normal distribution for the error terms. We present an efficient ECM algorithm for parameter estimation with closed-form expressions at the E-step based on truncated multinormal distribution formulas. The identifiability of the proposed model is also discussed, and its properties have been examined. Through simulation studies, we compare our proposed model with the normal and Student's t counterparts and investigate the finite-sample properties and the variation in missing rate. Results obtained from two real data analyses showcase the usefulness and effectiveness of our model. The proposed algorithms are implemented in the R package HeckmanEM.

We present BLINQ, a new model-based algorithm that learns the Whittle indices of an indexable, communicating and unichain Markov Decision Process (MDP). Our approach relies on building an empirical estimate of the MDP and then computing its Whittle indices using an extended version of a state-of-the-art existing algorithm. We provide a proof of convergence to the Whittle indices we want to learn as well as a bound on the time needed to learn them with arbitrary precision. Moreover, we investigate its computational complexity. Our numerical experiments suggest that BLINQ significantly outperforms existing Q-learning approaches in terms of the number of samples needed to get an accurate approximation. In addition, it has a total computational cost even lower than Q-learning for any reasonably high number of samples. These observations persist even when the Q-learning algorithms are speeded up using pre-trained neural networks to predict Q-values.

We show that Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) provide a flexible generative framework for modeling spin configurations in disordered yet strongly correlated phases of frustrated magnets. As a benchmark, we first demonstrate that an RBM can learn the zero-temperature ground-state manifold of the one-dimensional ANNNI model at its multiphase point, accurately reproducing its characteristic oscillatory and exponentially decaying correlations. We then apply RBMs to kagome spin ice and show that they successfully learn the local ice rules and short-range correlations of the extensively degenerate ice-I manifold. Correlation functions computed from RBM-generated configurations closely match those from direct Monte Carlo simulations. For the partially ordered ice-II phase -- featuring long-range charge order and broken time-reversal symmetry -- accurate modeling requires RBMs with uniform-sign bias fields, mirroring the underlying symmetry breaking. These results highlight the utility of RBMs as generative models for learning constrained and highly frustrated magnetic states.

While recent vision-language models (VLMs) demonstrate strong image understanding, their ability to "think with images", i.e., to reason through multi-step visual interactions, remains limited. We introduce VISTA-Gym, a scalable training environment for incentivizing tool-integrated visual reasoning capabilities in VLMs. VISTA-Gym unifies diverse real-world multimodal reasoning tasks (7 tasks from 13 datasets in total) with a standardized interface for visual tools (e.g., grounding, parsing), executable interaction loops, verifiable feedback signals, and efficient trajectory logging, enabling visual agentic reinforcement learning at scale. While recent VLMs exhibit strong text-only reasoning, both proprietary and open-source models still struggle with tool selection, invocation, and coordination. With VISTA-Gym, we train VISTA-R1 to interleave tool-use with agentic reasoning via multi-turn trajectory sampling and end-to-end reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments across 11 public reasoning-intensive VQA benchmarks show that VISTA-R1-8B outperforms state-of-the-art baselines with similar sizes by 9.51%-18.72%, demonstrating VISTA-Gym as an effective training ground to unlock the tool-integrated reasoning capabilities for VLMs.

Nowadays, social networks are becoming a popular way of analyzing tourist behavior, thanks to the digital traces left by travelers during their stays on these networks. The massive amount of data generated; by the propensity of tourists to share comments and photos during their trip; makes it possible to model their journeys and analyze their behavior. Predicting the next movement of tourists plays a key role in tourism marketing to understand demand and improve decision support. In this paper, we propose a method to understand and to learn tourists' movements based on social network data analysis to predict future movements. The method relies on a machine learning grammatical inference algorithm. A major contribution in this paper is to adapt the grammatical inference algorithm to the context of big data. Our method produces a hidden Markov model representing the movements of a group of tourists. The hidden Markov model is flexible and editable with new data. The capital city of France, Paris is selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed methodology.