A common approach for Bayesian computation with big data is to partition the data into smaller pieces, perform local inference for each piece separately, and finally combine the results to obtain an approximation to the global posterior. Looking at this from the bottom up, one can perform separate analyses on individual sources of data and then combine these in a larger Bayesian model. In either case, the idea of distributed modeling and inference has both conceptual and computational appeal, but from the Bayesian perspective there is no general way of handling the prior distribution: if the prior is included in each separate inference, it will be multiply-counted when the inferences are combined; but if the prior is itself divided into pieces, it may not provide enough regularization for each separate computation, thus eliminating one of the key advantages of Bayesian methods. To resolve this dilemma, we propose expectation propagation (EP) as a general prototype for distributed Bayesian inference. The central idea is to factor the likelihood according to the data partitions, and to iteratively combine each factor with an approximate model of the prior and all other parts of the data, thus producing an overall approximation to the global posterior at convergence. In this paper, we give an introduction to EP and an overview of some recent developments of the method, with particular emphasis on its use in combining inferences from partitioned data. In addition to distributed modeling of large datasets, our unified treatment also includes hierarchical modeling of data with a naturally partitioned structure. The paper describes a general algorithmic framework, rather than a specific algorithm, and presents an example implementation for it.

This paper presents a new approach for Gaussian process (GP) regression for large datasets. The approach involves partitioning the regression input domain into multiple local regions with a different local GP model fitted in each region. Unlike existing local partitioned GP approaches, we introduce a technique for patching together the local GP models nearly seamlessly to ensure that the local GP models for two neighboring regions produce nearly the same response prediction and prediction error variance on the boundary between the two regions. This effectively solves the well-known discontinuity problem that degrades the boundary accuracy of existing local partitioned GP methods. Our main innovation is to represent the continuity conditions as additional pseudo-observations that the differences between neighboring GP responses are identically zero at an appropriately chosen set of boundary input locations. To predict the response at any input location, we simply augment the actual response observations with the pseudo-observations and apply standard GP prediction methods to the augmented data. In contrast to heuristic continuity adjustments, this has an advantage of working within a formal GP framework, so that the GP-based predictive uncertainty quantification remains valid. Our approach also inherits a sparse block-like structure for the sample covariance matrix, which results in computationally efficient closed-form expressions for the predictive mean and variance. In addition, we provide a new spatial partitioning scheme based on a recursive space partitioning along local principal component directions, which makes the proposed approach applicable for regression domains having more than two dimensions. Using three spatial datasets and three higher dimensional datasets, we investigate the numerical performance of the approach and compare it to several state-of-the-art approaches.

In bankruptcy prediction, the proportion of events is very low, which is often oversampled to eliminate this bias. In this paper, we study the influence of the event rate on discrimination abilities of bankruptcy prediction models. First the statistical association and significance of public records and firmographics indicators with the bankruptcy were explored. Then the event rate was oversampled from 0.12% to 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, and 50%, respectively. Seven models were developed, including Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, Bayesian Network, and Neural Network. Under different event rates, models were comprehensively evaluated and compared based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov Statistic, accuracy, F1 score, Type I error, Type II error, and ROC curve on the hold-out dataset with their best probability cut-offs. Results show that Bayesian Network is the most insensitive to the event rate, while Support Vector Machine is the most sensitive.

Markov chains are a fairly common, and relatively simple, way to statistically model random processes. They have been used in many different domains, ranging from text generation to financial modeling. A popular example is r/SubredditSimulator, which uses Markov chains to automate the creation of content for an entire subreddit. Overall, Markov Chains are conceptually quite intuitive, and are very accessible in that they can be implemented without the use of any advanced statistical or mathematical concepts. They are a great way to start learning about probabilistic modeling and data science techniques. This example illustrates many of the key concepts of a Markov chain.

Classification of sequence data is the topic of interest for dynamic Bayesian models and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). While the former can explicitly model the temporal dependencies between class variables, the latter have a capability of learning representations. Several attempts have been made to improve performance by combining these two approaches or increasing the processing capability of the hidden units in RNNs. This often results in complex models with a large number of learning parameters. In this paper, a compact model is proposed which offers both representation learning and temporal inference of class variables by rolling Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) and class variables over time. We address the key issue of intractability in this variant of RBMs by optimising a conditional distribution, instead of a joint distribution. Experiments reported in the paper on melody modelling and optical character recognition show that the proposed model can outperform the state-of-the-art. Also, the experimental results on optical character recognition, part-of-speech tagging and text chunking demonstrate that our model is comparable to recurrent neural networks with complex memory gates while requiring far fewer parameters.

Structured prediction energy networks (SPENs; Belanger & McCallum 2016) use neural network architectures to define energy functions that can capture arbitrary dependencies among parts of structured outputs. Prior work used gradient descent for inference, relaxing the structured output to a set of continuous variables and then optimizing the energy with respect to them. We replace this use of gradient descent with a neural network trained to approximate structured argmax inference. This "inference network" outputs continuous values that we treat as the output structure. We develop large-margin training criteria for joint training of the structured energy function and inference network. On multi-label classification we report speedups of 10-60x compared to (Belanger et al., 2017) while also improving accuracy. For sequence labeling with simple structured energies, our approach performs comparably to exact inference while being much faster at test time. We then demonstrate improved accuracy by augmenting the energy with a "label language model" that scores entire output label sequences, showing it can improve handling of long-distance dependencies in part-of-speech tagging. Finally, we show how inference networks can replace dynamic programming for test-time inference in conditional random fields, suggestive for their general use for fast inference in structured settings.

A key problem in inference for high dimensional unknowns is the design of sampling algorithms whose performance scales favourably with the dimension of the unknown. A typical setting in which these problems arise is the area of Bayesian inverse problems. In such problems, which include graph-based learning, nonparametric regression and PDE-based inversion, the unknown can be viewed as an infinite-dimensional parameter (such as a function) that has been discretised. This results in a high-dimensional space for inference. Here we study robustness of an MCMC algorithm for posterior inference; this refers to MCMC convergence rates that do not deteriorate as the discretisation becomes finer. When a Gaussian prior is employed there is a known methodology for the design of robust MCMC samplers. However, one often requires more flexibility than a Gaussian prior can provide: hierarchical models are used to enable inference of parameters underlying a Gaussian prior; or non-Gaussian priors, such as Besov, are employed to induce sparse MAP estimators; or deep Gaussian priors are used to represent other non-Gaussian phenomena; and piecewise constant functions, which are necessarily non-Gaussian, are required for classification problems. The purpose of this article is to show that the simulation technology available for Gaussian priors can be exported to such non-Gaussian priors. The underlying methodology is based on a white noise representation of the unknown. This is exploited both for robust posterior sampling and for joint inference of the function and parameters involved in the specification of its prior, in which case our framework borrows strength from the well-developed non-centred methodology for Bayesian hierarchical models. The desired robustness of the proposed sampling algorithms is supported by some theory and by extensive numerical evidence from several challenging problems.

Graphs are fundamental data structures which concisely capture the relational structure in many important real-world domains, such as knowledge graphs, physical and social interactions, language, and chemistry. Here we introduce a powerful new approach for learning generative models over graphs, which can capture both their structure and attributes. Our approach uses graph neural networks to express probabilistic dependencies among a graph's nodes and edges, and can, in principle, learn distributions over any arbitrary graph. In a series of experiments our results show that once trained, our models can generate good quality samples of both synthetic graphs as well as real molecular graphs, both unconditionally and conditioned on data. Compared to baselines that do not use graph-structured representations, our models often perform far better. We also explore key challenges of learning generative models of graphs, such as how to handle symmetries and ordering of elements during the graph generation process, and offer possible solutions. Our work is the first and most general approach for learning generative models over arbitrary graphs, and opens new directions for moving away from restrictions of vector- and sequence-like knowledge representations, toward more expressive and flexible relational data structures.

The rise of Online Social Networks (OSNs) has caused an insurmountable amount of interest from advertisers and researchers seeking to monopolize on its features. Researchers aim to develop strategies for determining how information is propagated among users within an OSN that is captured by diffusion or influence models. We consider the influence models for the IM-RO problem, a novel formulation to the Influence Maximization (IM) problem based on implementing Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP). In contrast to existing approaches involving influence spread and the theory of submodular functions, the SDP method focuses on optimizing clicks and ultimately revenue to advertisers in OSNs. Existing approaches to influence maximization have been actively researched over the past decade, with applications to multiple fields, however, our approach is a more practical variant to the original IM problem. In this paper, we provide an analysis on the influence models of the IM-RO problem by conducting experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets. We propose a Bayesian and Machine Learning approach for estimating the parameters of the influence models for the (Influence Maximization- Revenue Optimization) IM-RO problem. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model and implement the well-known Naive Bayes classifier (NBC), Decision Trees classifier (DTC) and Random Forest classifier (RFC) on three real-world datasets. Compared to previous approaches to estimating influence model parameters, our strategy has the great advantage of being directly implementable in standard software packages such as WinBUGS/OpenBUGS/JAGS and Apache Spark. We demonstrate the efficiency and usability of our methods in terms of spreading information and generating revenue for advertisers in the context of OSNs.

We consider high-dimensional binary classification by sparse logistic regression. We propose a model/feature selection procedure based on penalized maximum likelihood with a complexity penalty on the model size and derive the non-asymptotic bounds for the resulting misclassification excess risk. The bounds can be reduced under the additional low-noise condition. The proposed complexity penalty is remarkably related to the VC-dimension of a set of sparse linear classifiers. Implementation of any complexity penalty-based criterion, however, requires a combinatorial search over all possible models. To find a model selection procedure computationally feasible for high-dimensional data, we extend the Slope estimator for logistic regression and show that under an additional weighted restricted eigenvalue condition it is rate-optimal in the minimax sense.