Categorical distributions are ubiquitous in machine learning, e.g., in classification, language models, and recommendation systems. They are also at the core of discrete choice models. However, when the number of possible outcomes is very large, using categorical distributions becomes computationally expensive, as the complexity scales linearly with the number of outcomes. To address this problem, we propose augment and reduce (A&R), a method to alleviate the computational complexity. A&R uses two ideas: latent variable augmentation and stochastic variational inference. It maximizes a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Unlike existing methods which are specific to softmax, A&R is more general and is amenable to other categorical models, such as multinomial probit. On several large-scale classification problems, we show that A&R provides a tighter bound on the marginal likelihood and has better predictive performance than existing approaches.

Learning the latent representation of data in unsupervised fashion is a very interesting process that provides relevant features for enhancing the performance of a classifier. For speech emotion recognition tasks, generating effective features is crucial. Currently, handcrafted features are mostly used for speech emotion recognition, however, features learned automatically using deep learning have shown strong success in many problems, especially in image processing. In particular, deep generative models such as Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have gained enormous success for generating features for natural images. Inspired by this, we propose VAEs for deriving the latent representation of speech signals and use this representation to classify emotions. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to propose VAEs for speech emotion classification. Evaluations on the IEMOCAP dataset demonstrate that features learned by VAEs can produce state-of-the-art results for speech emotion classification.

Speeding up Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for datasets with many observations by data subsampling has recently received considerable attention in the literature. The currently available methods are either approximate, highly inefficient or limited to small dimensional models. We propose a pseudo-marginal MCMC method that estimates the likelihood by data subsampling using a block-Poisson estimator. The estimator is a product of Poisson estimators, each based on an independent subset of the observations. The construction allows us to update a subset of the blocks in each MCMC iteration, thereby inducing a controllable correlation between the estimates at the current and proposed draw in the Metropolis-Hastings ratio. This makes it possible to use highly variable likelihood estimators without adversely affecting the sampling efficiency. Poisson estimators are unbiased but not necessarily positive. We therefore follow Lyne et al. (2015) and run the MCMC on the absolute value of the estimator and use an importance sampling correction for occasionally negative likelihood estimates to estimate expectations of any function of the parameters. We provide analytically derived guidelines to select the algorithm's optimal tuning parameters by minimizing the variance of the importance sampling corrected estimator per unit of computing time. The guidelines are derived under idealized conditions, but are demonstrated to be quite accurate in empirical experiments. The guidelines apply to any pseudo-marginal algorithm if the likelihood is estimated by the block-Poisson estimator, including the class of doubly intractable problems in Lyne et al. (2015). We illustrate the method in a logistic regression example and find dramatic improvements compared to regular MCMC without subsampling and a popular exact subsampling approach recently proposed in the literature.

Use neighborhood component analysis (NCA) to choose features for machine learning models. Manipulate and analyze data that is too big to fit in memory. Perform support vector machine (SVM) and Naive Bayes classification, create bags of decision trees, and fit lasso regression on out-of-memory data. Manipulate, compare, and store text data efficiently . Develop clients for MATLAB Production Server in any programming language that supports HTTP.

Casting neural networks in generative frameworks is a highly sought-after endeavor these days. Contemporary methods, such as Generative Adversarial Networks, capture some of the generative capabilities, but not all. In particular, they lack the ability of tractable marginalization, and thus are not suitable for many tasks. Other methods, based on arithmetic circuits and sum-product networks, do allow tractable marginalization, but their performance is challenged by the need to learn the structure of a circuit. Building on the tractability of arithmetic circuits, we leverage concepts from tensor analysis, and derive a family of generative models we call Tensorial Mixture Models (TMMs). TMMs assume a simple convolutional network structure, and in addition, lend themselves to theoretical analyses that allow comprehensive understanding of the relation between their structure and their expressive properties. We thus obtain a generative model that is tractable on one hand, and on the other hand, allows effective representation of rich distributions in an easily controlled manner. These two capabilities are brought together in the task of classification under missing data, where TMMs deliver state of the art accuracies with seamless implementation and design.

One of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation involving the posterior density. In this paper, we review variational inference (VI), a method from machine learning that approximates probability densities through optimization. VI has been used in many applications and tends to be faster than classical methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The idea behind VI is to first posit a family of densities and then to find the member of that family which is close to the target. Closeness is measured by Kullback-Leibler divergence. We review the ideas behind mean-field variational inference, discuss the special case of VI applied to exponential family models, present a full example with a Bayesian mixture of Gaussians, and derive a variant that uses stochastic optimization to scale up to massive data. We discuss modern research in VI and highlight important open problems. VI is powerful, but it is not yet well understood. Our hope in writing this paper is to catalyze statistical research on this class of algorithms.

ZhuSuan is a python probabilistic programming library for Bayesian deep learning, which conjoins the complimentary advantages of Bayesian methods and deep learning. Unlike existing deep learning libraries, which are mainly designed for deterministic neural networks and supervised tasks, ZhuSuan provides deep learning style primitives and algorithms for building probabilistic models and applying Bayesian inference. Variational inference with programmable variational posteriors, various objectives and advanced gradient estimators (SGVB, REINFORCE, VIMCO, etc.). ZhuSuan is still under development. Before the first stable release (1.0), please clone the repository and run This will install ZhuSuan and its dependencies automatically.

Network growth processes can be understood as generative models of the structure and history of complex networks. This point of view naturally leads to the problem of network archaeology: Reconstructing all the past states of a network from its structure---a difficult permutation inference problem. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian formulation of network archaeology, with a generalization of preferential attachment as our generative mechanism. We develop a sequential importance sampling algorithm to evaluate the posterior averages of this model, as well as an efficient heuristic that uncovers the history of a network in linear time. We use these methods to identify and characterize a phase transition in the quality of the reconstructed history, when they are applied to artificial networks generated by the model itself. Despite the existence of a no-recovery phase, we find that non-trivial inference is possible in a large portion of the parameter space as well as on empirical data.

Spike-and-Slab Deep Learning (SS-DL) is a fully Bayesian alternative to Dropout for improving generalizability of deep ReLU networks. This new type of regularization enables provable recovery of smooth input-output maps with unknown levels of smoothness. Indeed, we show that the posterior distribution concentrates at the near minimax rate for $\alpha$-H\"older smooth maps, performing as well as if we knew the smoothness level $\alpha$ ahead of time. Our result sheds light on architecture design for deep neural networks, namely the choice of depth, width and sparsity level. These network attributes typically depend on unknown smoothness in order to be optimal. We obviate this constraint with the fully Bayes construction. As an aside, we show that SS-DL does not overfit in the sense that the posterior concentrates on smaller networks with fewer (up to the optimal number of) nodes and links. Our results provide new theoretical justifications for deep ReLU networks from a Bayesian point of view.

The randomized experiment is an important tool for inferring the causal impact of an intervention. The recent literature on statistical learning methods for heterogeneous treatment effects demonstrates the utility of estimating the marginal conditional average treatment effect (MCATE), i.e., the average treatment effect for a subpopulation of respondents who share a particular subset of covariates. However, each proposed method makes its own set of restrictive assumptions about the intervention's effects, the underlying data generating processes, and which subpopulations (MCATEs) to explicitly estimate. Moreover, the majority of the literature provides no mechanism to identify which subpopulations are the most affected--beyond manual inspection--and provides little guarantee on the correctness of the identified subpopulations. Therefore, we propose Treatment Effect Subset Scan (TESS), a new method for discovering which subpopulation in a randomized experiment is most significantly affected by a treatment. We frame this challenge as a pattern detection problem where we maximize a nonparametric scan statistic (measurement of distributional divergence) over subpopulations, while being parsimonious in which specific subpopulations to evaluate. Furthermore, we identify the subpopulation which experiences the largest distributional change as a result of the intervention, while making minimal assumptions about the intervention's effects or the underlying data generating process. In addition to the algorithm, we demonstrate that the asymptotic Type I and II error can be controlled, and provide sufficient conditions for detection consistency---i.e., exact identification of the affected subpopulation. Finally, we validate the efficacy of the method by discovering heterogeneous treatment effects in simulations and in real-world data from a well-known program evaluation study.