Considering the driving habits which are learned from the naturalistic driving data in the path-tracking system can significantly improve the acceptance of intelligent vehicles. Therefore, the goal of this paper is to generate the prediction results of lateral commands with confidence regions according to the reference based on the learned motion primitives. We present a two-level structure for learning and generalizing motion primitives through demonstrations. The lower-level motion primitives are generated under the path segmentation and clustering layer in the upper-level. The Gaussian Mixture Model(GMM) is utilized to represent the primitives and Gaussian Mixture Regression (GMR) is selected to generalize the motion primitives. We show how the upper-level can help to improve the prediction accuracy and evaluate the influence of different time scales and the number of Gaussian components. The model is trained and validated by using the driving data collected from the Beijing Institute of Technology (BIT) intelligent vehicle platform. Experiment results show that the proposed method can extract the motion primitives from the driving data and predict the future lateral control commands with high accuracy.

Classical clustering algorithms typically either lack an underlying probability framework to make them predictive or focus on parameter estimation rather than defining and minimizing a notion of error. Recent work addresses these issues by developing a probabilistic framework based on the theory of random labeled point processes and characterizing a Bayes clusterer that minimizes the number of misclustered points. The Bayes clusterer is analogous to the Bayes classifier. Whereas determining a Bayes classifier requires full knowledge of the feature-label distribution, deriving a Bayes clusterer requires full knowledge of the point process. When uncertain of the point process, one would like to find a robust clusterer that is optimal over the uncertainty, just as one may find optimal robust classifiers with uncertain feature-label distributions. Herein, we derive an optimal robust clusterer by first finding an effective random point process that incorporates all randomness within its own probabilistic structure and from which a Bayes clusterer can be derived that provides an optimal robust clusterer relative to the uncertainty. This is analogous to the use of effective class-conditional distributions in robust classification. After evaluating the performance of robust clusterers in synthetic mixtures of Gaussians models, we apply the framework to granular imaging, where we make use of the asymptotic granulometric moment theory for granular images to relate robust clustering theory to the application.

Complex performance measures, beyond the popular measure of accuracy, are increasingly being used in the context of binary classification. These complex performance measures are typically not even decomposable, that is, the loss evaluated on a batch of samples cannot typically be expressed as a sum or average of losses evaluated at individual samples, which in turn requires new theoretical and methodological developments beyond standard treatments of supervised learning. In this paper, we advance this understanding of binary classification for complex performance measures by identifying two key properties: a so-called Karmic property, and a more technical threshold-quasi-concavity property, which we show is milder than existing structural assumptions imposed on performance measures. Under these properties, we show that the Bayes optimal classifier is a threshold function of the conditional probability of positive class. We then leverage this result to come up with a computationally practical plug-in classifier, via a novel threshold estimator, and further, provide a novel statistical analysis of classification error with respect to complex performance measures.

Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, to perform in groups and to improvise. We argue, with reference to a number of digital music instruments (DMIs), including two of our own, that predictive machine learning models can help interactive systems to understand their temporal context and ensemble behaviour. We also discuss how recent advances in deep learning highlight the role of prediction in DMIs, by allowing data-driven predictive models with a long memory of past states. We advocate for predictive musical interaction, where a predictive model is embedded in a musical interface, assisting users by predicting unknown states of musical processes. We propose a framework for characterising prediction as relating to the instrumental sound, ongoing musical process, or between members of an ensemble. Our framework shows that different musical interface design configurations lead to different types of prediction. We show that our framework accommodates deep generative models, as well as models for predicting gestural states, or other high-level musical information. We apply our framework to examples from our recent work and the literature, and discuss the benefits and challenges revealed by these systems as well as musical use-cases where prediction is a necessary component.

Learning a generative model is a key component of model-based reinforcement learning. Though learning a good model in the tabular setting is a simple task, learning a useful model in the approximate setting is challenging. Recently Farahmand et al. (2017) proposed a value-aware (VAML) objective that captures the structure of value function during model learning. Using tools from Lipschitz continuity, we show that minimizing the VAML objective is in fact equivalent to minimizing the Wasserstein metric.

The mass, or binding energy, is the basis property of the atomic nucleus. It determines its stability, and reaction and decay rates. Quantifying the nuclear binding is important for understanding the origin of elements in the universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the nucleosynthesis in stars often take place far from the valley of stability, where experimental masses are not known. In such cases, missing nuclear information must be provided by theoretical predictions using extreme extrapolations. Bayesian machine learning techniques can be applied to improve predictions by taking full advantage of the information contained in the deviations between experimental and calculated masses. We consider 10 global models based on nuclear Density Functional Theory as well as two more phenomenological mass models. The emulators of S2n residuals and credibility intervals defining theoretical error bars are constructed using Bayesian Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks. We consider a large training dataset pertaining to nuclei whose masses were measured before 2003. For the testing datasets, we considered those exotic nuclei whose masses have been determined after 2003. We then carried out extrapolations towards the 2n dripline. While both Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks reduce the rms deviation from experiment significantly, GP offers a better and much more stable performance. The increase in the predictive power is quite astonishing: the resulting rms deviations from experiment on the testing dataset are similar to those of more phenomenological models. The empirical coverage probability curves we obtain match very well the reference values which is highly desirable to ensure honesty of uncertainty quantification, and the estimated credibility intervals on predictions make it possible to evaluate predictive power of individual models.

We consider the problem of including additional knowledge in estimating sparse Gaussian graphical models (sGGMs) from aggregated samples, arising often in bioinformatics and neuroimaging applications. Previous joint sGGM estimators either fail to use existing knowledge or cannot scale-up to many tasks (large $K$) under a high-dimensional (large $p$) situation. In this paper, we propose a novel \underline{J}oint \underline{E}lementary \underline{E}stimator incorporating additional \underline{K}nowledge (JEEK) to infer multiple related sparse Gaussian Graphical models from large-scale heterogeneous data. Using domain knowledge as weights, we design a novel hybrid norm as the minimization objective to enforce the superposition of two weighted sparsity constraints, one on the shared interactions and the other on the task-specific structural patterns. This enables JEEK to elegantly consider various forms of existing knowledge based on the domain at hand and avoid the need to design knowledge-specific optimization. JEEK is solved through a fast and entry-wise parallelizable solution that largely improves the computational efficiency of the state-of-the-art $O(p^5K^4)$ to $O(p^2K^4)$. We conduct a rigorous statistical analysis showing that JEEK achieves the same convergence rate $O(\log(Kp)/n_{tot})$ as the state-of-the-art estimators that are much harder to compute. Empirically, on multiple synthetic datasets and two real-world data, JEEK outperforms the speed of the state-of-arts significantly while achieving the same level of prediction accuracy.

Adversarial learning is one of the most successful approaches to modelling high-dimensional probability distributions from data. The quantum computing community has recently begun to generalize this idea and to look for potential applications. In this work, we derive an adversarial algorithm for the problem of approximating an unknown quantum pure state. Although this could be done on error-corrected quantum computers, the adversarial formulation enables us to execute the algorithm on near-term quantum computers. Two ansatz circuits are optimized in tandem: One tries to approximate the target state, the other tries to distinguish between target and approximated state. Supported by numerical simulations, we show that resilient backpropagation algorithms perform remarkably well in optimizing the two circuits. We use the bipartite entanglement entropy to design an efficient heuristic for the stopping criteria. Our approach may find application in quantum state tomography.

Learning to make decisions from observed data in dynamic environments remains a problem of fundamental importance in a number of fields, from artificial intelligence and robotics, to medicine and finance. This paper concerns the problem of learning control policies for unknown linear dynamical systems so as to maximize a quadratic reward function. We present a method to optimize the expected value of the reward over the posterior distribution of the unknown system parameters, given data. The algorithm involves sequential convex programing, and enjoys reliable local convergence and robust stability guarantees. Numerical simulations and stabilization of a real-world inverted pendulum are used to demonstrate the approach, with strong performance and robustness properties observed in both.

By providing a simple and efficient way of computing low-variance gradients of continuous random variables, the reparameterization trick has become the technique of choice for training a variety of latent variable models. However, it is not applicable to a number of important continuous distributions. We introduce an alternative approach to computing reparameterization gradients based on implicit differentiation and demonstrate its broader applicability by applying it to Gamma, Beta, Dirichlet, and von Mises distributions, which cannot be used with the classic reparameterization trick. Our experiments show that the proposed approach is faster and more accurate than the existing gradient estimators for these distributions.