The task of calibration is to retrospectively adjust the outputs from a machine learning model to provide better probability estimates on the target variable. While calibration has been investigated thoroughly in classification, it has not yet been well-established for regression tasks. This paper considers the problem of calibrating a probabilistic regression model to improve the estimated probability densities over the real-valued targets. We propose to calibrate a regression model through the cumulative probability density, which can be derived from calibrating a multi-class classifier. We provide three non-parametric approaches to solve the problem, two of which provide empirical estimates and the third providing smooth density estimates. The proposed approaches are experimentally evaluated to show their ability to improve the performance of regression models on the predictive likelihood.

Recently, the connectionist temporal classification (CTC) model coupled with recurrent (RNN) or convolutional neural networks (CNN), made it easier to train speech recognition systems in an end-to-end fashion. However in real-valued models, time frame components such as mel-filter-bank energies and the cepstral coefficients obtained from them, together with their first and second order derivatives, are processed as individual elements, while a natural alternative is to process such components as composed entities. We propose to group such elements in the form of quaternions and to process these quaternions using the established quaternion algebra. Quaternion numbers and quaternion neural networks have shown their efficiency to process multidimensional inputs as entities, to encode internal dependencies, and to solve many tasks with less learning parameters than real-valued models. This paper proposes to integrate multiple feature views in quaternion-valued convolutional neural network (QCNN), to be used for sequence-to-sequence mapping with the CTC model. Promising results are reported using simple QCNNs in phoneme recognition experiments with the TIMIT corpus. More precisely, QCNNs obtain a lower phoneme error rate (PER) with less learning parameters than a competing model based on real-valued CNNs.

We propose a novel reinforcement learning approach for finite Markov decision processes (MDPs) with delayed rewards. In this work, biases of temporal difference (TD) estimates are proved to be corrected only exponentially slowly in the number of delay steps. Furthermore, variances of Monte Carlo (MC) estimates are proved to increase the variance of other estimates, the number of which can exponentially grow in the number of delay steps. We introduce RUDDER, a return decomposition method, which creates a new MDP with same optimal policies as the original MDP but with redistributed rewards that have largely reduced delays. If the return decomposition is optimal, then the new MDP does not have delayed rewards and TD estimates are unbiased. In this case, the rewards track Q-values so that the future expected reward is always zero. We experimentally confirm our theoretical results on bias and variance of TD and MC estimates. On artificial tasks with different lengths of reward delays, we show that RUDDER is exponentially faster than TD, MC, and MC Tree Search (MCTS). RUDDER outperforms rainbow, A3C, DDQN, Distributional DQN, Dueling DDQN, Noisy DQN, and Prioritized DDQN on the delayed reward Atari game Venture in only a fraction of the learning time. RUDDER considerably improves the state-of-the-art on the delayed reward Atari game Bowling in much less learning time. Source code is available at https://github.com/ml-jku/baselines-rudder, with demonstration videos at https://goo.gl/EQerZV.

Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. In addition, Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).

Machine learning is part art and part science. When you look at machine learning algorithms, there is no one solution or one approach that fits all. There are several factors that can affect your decision to choose a machine learning algorithm. Some problems are very specific and require a unique approach. E.g. if you look at a recommender system, it's a very common type of machine learning algorithm and it solves a very specific kind of problem. While some other problems are very open and need a trial & error approach.

Event detection is a critical feature in data-driven systems as it assists with the identification of nominal and anomalous behavior. Event detection is increasingly relevant in robotics as robots operate with greater autonomy in increasingly unstructured environments. In this work, we present an accurate, robust, fast, and versatile measure for skill and anomaly identification. A theoretical proof establishes the link between the derivative of the log-likelihood of the HMM filtered belief state and the latest emission probabilities. The key insight is the inverse relationship in which gradient analysis is used for skill and anomaly identification. Our measure showed better performance across all metrics than related state-of-the art works. The result is broadly applicable to domains that use HMMs for event detection.

Emily B. Fox Department of Statistics University of Washington Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space, such as the simplex, the time-discretisation error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that while current SGMCMC methods for the simplex perform well in certain cases, they struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. However, most popular large-scale applications of Bayesian inference on simplex spaces, such as network or topic models, are sparse. We argue that this poor performance is due to the biases of SGMCMC caused by the discretization error. To get around this, we propose the stochastic CIR process, which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the stochastic CIR process are asymptotically unbiased. Use of the stochastic CIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.

The family of Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms provides a general approach to fitting flexible models for large and complex data. The expectation (E) step of EM-type algorithms is time-consuming in massive data applications because it requires multiple passes through the full data. We address this problem by proposing an asynchronous and distributed generalization of the EM called the Distributed EM (DEM). Using DEM, existing EM-type algorithms are easily extended to massive data settings by exploiting the divide-and-conquer technique and widely available computing power, such as grid computing. The DEM algorithm reserves two groups of computing processes called \emph{workers} and \emph{managers} for performing the E step and the maximization step (M step), respectively. The samples are randomly partitioned into a large number of disjoint subsets and are stored on the worker processes. The E step of DEM algorithm is performed in parallel on all the workers, and every worker communicates its results to the managers at the end of local E step. The managers perform the M step after they have received results from a $\gamma$-fraction of the workers, where $\gamma$ is a fixed constant in $(0, 1]$. The sequence of parameter estimates generated by the DEM algorithm retains the attractive properties of EM: convergence of the sequence of parameter estimates to a local mode and linear global rate of convergence. Across diverse simulations focused on linear mixed-effects models, the DEM algorithm is significantly faster than competing EM-type algorithms while having a similar accuracy. The DEM algorithm maintains its superior empirical performance on a movie ratings database consisting of 10 million ratings.

The restricted Boltzmann machine is a network of stochastic units with undirected interactions between pairs of visible and hidden units. This model was popularized as a building block of deep learning architectures and has continued to play an important role in applied and theoretical machine learning. Restricted Boltzmann machines carry a rich structure, with connections to geometry, applied algebra, probability, statistics, machine learning, and other areas. The analysis of these models is attractive in its own right and also as a platform to combine and generalize mathematical tools for graphical models with hidden variables. This article gives an introduction to the mathematical analysis of restricted Boltzmann machines, reviews recent results on the geometry of the sets of probability distributions representable by these models, and suggests a few directions for further investigation.

We aim to predict whether an employee of a company will leave or not, using the k-Nearest Neighbors algorithm. We use evaluation of employee performance, average monthly hours at work and number of years spent in the company, among others, as our features. Other approaches to this problem include the use of ANNs, decision trees and logistic regression. The dataset was split, using 70% for training the algorithm and 30% for testing it, achieving an accuracy of 94.32%.