We define a new class of Bayesian point estimators, which we refer to as risk-averse estimators. We then use this definition to formulate several axioms that we claim to be natural requirements for good inference procedures, and show that for two classes of estimation problems the axioms uniquely characterise an estimator. Namely, for estimation problems with a discrete hypothesis space, we show that the axioms lead to the MAP estimate, whereas for well-behaved, purely continuous estimation problems the axioms lead to the Wallace-Freeman estimate. Interestingly, this combined use of MAP and Wallace-Freeman estimation reflects the common practice in the Minimum Message Length (MML) community, but there these two estimators are used as approximations for the information-theoretic Strict MML estimator, whereas we derive them exactly, not as approximations, and do so with no use of encoding or information theory. Keywords: Bayes estimation, risk-averse, inference, axiomatic approach, MML, Wallace-Freeman, invariance 1. Introduction One of the fundamental statistical problems is point estimation. In a Bayesian setting, this can be described as follows. Let (x,θ) X Θ be a pair of random variables with a known joint distribution that assigns positive probability / probability density to any (x,θ) X Θ.

Learning to infer Bayesian posterior from a few-shot dataset is an important step towards robust meta-learning due to the model uncertainty inherent in the problem. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning method. The proposed method combines scalable gradient-based meta-learning with nonparametric variational inference in a principled probabilistic framework. During fast adaptation, the method is capable of learning complex uncertainty structure beyond a point estimate or a simple Gaussian approximation. In addition, a robust Bayesian meta-update mechanism with a new meta-loss prevents overfitting during meta-update. Remaining an efficient gradient-based meta-learner, the method is also model-agnostic and simple to implement. Experiment results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method in various tasks: sinusoidal regression, image classification, active learning, and reinforcement learning.

We present a variational renormalization group (RG) approach using a deep generative model based on normalizing flows. The model performs hierarchical change-of-variables transformations from the physical space to a latent space with reduced mutual information. Conversely, the neural net directly maps independent Gaussian noises to physical configurations following the inverse RG flow. The model has an exact and tractable likelihood, which allows unbiased training and direct access to the renormalized energy function of the latent variables. To train the model, we employ probability density distillation for the bare energy function of the physical problem, in which the training loss provides a variational upper bound of the physical free energy. We demonstrate practical usage of the approach by identifying mutually independent collective variables of the Ising model and performing accelerated hybrid Monte Carlo sampling in the latent space. Lastly, we comment on the connection of the present approach to the wavelet formulation of RG and the modern pursuit of information preserving RG.

We propose a Bayesian convolutional neural network built upon Bayes by Backprop and elaborate how this known method can serve as the fundamental construct of our novel, reliable variational inference method for convolutional neural networks. First, we show how Bayes by Backprop can be applied to convolutional layers where weights in filters have probability distributions instead of point-estimates; and second, how our proposed framework leads with various network architectures to performances comparable to convolutional neural networks with point-estimates weights. In the past, Bayes by Backprop has been successfully utilised in feedforward and recurrent neural networks, but not in convolutional ones. This work symbolises the extension of the group of Bayesian neural networks which encompasses all three aforementioned types of network architectures now.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) allow us to reason about uncertainty in a principled way. Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) enables efficient BNN learning by drawing samples from the BNN posterior using mini-batches. However, SGLD and its extensions require storage of many copies of the model parameters, a potentially prohibitive cost, especially for large neural networks. We propose a framework, Adversarial Posterior Distillation, to distill the SGLD samples using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN). At test-time, samples are generated by the GAN. We show that this distillation framework incurs no loss in performance on recent BNN applications including anomaly detection, active learning, and defense against adversarial attacks. By construction, our framework not only distills the Bayesian predictive distribution, but the posterior itself. This allows one to compute quantities such as the approximate model variance, which is useful in downstream tasks. To our knowledge, these are the first results applying MCMC-based BNNs to the aforementioned downstream applications.

This paper discusses technology challenges and opportunities to embrace artificial intelligence (AI) era in the design of wireless networks. We aim to provide readers with motivation and general methodology for adoption of AI in the context of next-generation networks. First, we discuss the rise of network intelligence and then, we introduce a brief overview of AI with machine learning (ML) and their relationship to self-organization designs. Finally, we discuss design of intelligent agent and it's functions to enable knowledge-driven wireless networks with AI.

Online symptom checkers have significant potential to improve patient care, however their reliability and accuracy remain variable. We hypothesised that an artificial intelligence (AI) powered triage and diagnostic system would compare favourably with human doctors with respect to triage and diagnostic accuracy. We performed a prospective validation study of the accuracy and safety of an AI powered triage and diagnostic system. Identical cases were evaluated by both an AI system and human doctors. Differential diagnoses and triage outcomes were evaluated by an independent judge, who was blinded from knowing the source (AI system or human doctor) of the outcomes. Independently of these cases, vignettes from publicly available resources were also assessed to provide a benchmark to previous studies and the diagnostic component of the MRCGP exam. Overall we found that the Babylon AI powered Triage and Diagnostic System was able to identify the condition modelled by a clinical vignette with accuracy comparable to human doctors (in terms of precision and recall). In addition, we found that the triage advice recommended by the AI System was, on average, safer than that of human doctors, when compared to the ranges of acceptable triage provided by independent expert judges, with only a minimal reduction in appropriateness.

This list is intended to introduce some of the tools of Bayesian statistics and machine learning that can be useful to computational research in cognitive science. The first section mentions several useful general references, and the others provide supplementary readings on specific topics. If you would like to suggest some additions to the list, contact Tom Griffiths.

We specialize the decoupled extended Kalman filter (DEKF) for online parameter learning in factorization models, including factorization machines, matrix and tensor factorization, and illustrate the effectiveness of the approach through simulations. Learning model parameters through the DEKF makes factorization models more broadly useful by allowing for more flexible observations through the entire exponential family, modeling parameter drift, and producing parameter uncertainty estimates that can enable explore/exploit and other applications. We use a more general dynamics of the parameters than the standard DEKF, allowing parameter drift while encouraging reasonable values. We also present an alternate derivation of the regular extended Kalman filter and DEKF that connects these methods to natural gradient methods, and suggests a similarly decoupled version of the iterated extended Kalman filter.

Classic Topic Models are built under the Bag Of Words assumption, in which word position is ignored for simplicity. Besides, symmetric priors are typically used in most applications. In order to easily learn topics with different properties among the same corpus, we propose a new line of work in which the paragraph structure is exploited. Our proposal is based on the following assumption: in many text document corpora there are formal constraints shared across all the collection, e.g. sections. When this assumption is satisfied, some paragraphs may be related to general concepts shared by all documents in the corpus, while others would contain the genuine description of documents. Assuming each paragraph can be semantically more general, specific, or hybrid, we look for ways to measure this, transferring this distinction to topics and being able to learn what we call specific and general topics. Experiments show that this is a proper methodology to highlight certain paragraphs in structured documents at the same time we learn interesting and more diverse topics.