Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some recent works propose event-driven prediction approaches by considering the event data, how to leverage the joint impacts of multiple data sources still remains an open research problem. In this work, we study how to explore multiple data sources to improve the performance of the stock prediction. We introduce an Extended Coupled Hidden Markov Model incorporating the news events with the historical trading data. To address the data sparsity issue of news events for each single stock, we further study the fluctuation correlations between the stocks and incorporate the correlations into the model to facilitate the prediction task. Keywords Stock prediction · Event extraction · Information fusion · Hidden Markov Model 1 Introduction The capability of predicting the stock price movement directions can offer enormous arbitrage profit opportunities and thus attract much attention from both academia and industry. Conventional quantitative trading prediction methods are mostly based on the historical trading data such as prices and volumes. According to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) [16], stock prices are the reflection of all known information. Key Laboratory of Trustworthy Distributed Computing and Service (Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications), Ministry of Education, Beijing, China. As more and more investors obtain information from social media [49, 57], the indicators obtained from Web news articles and social networks can also have significant impacts on the stock prices, and thus such factors that can derive the stock price fluctuations must be considered. As such, there are growing research interests in exploring financial text documents such as news articles, financial standings to facilitate the stock prediction task.

Sequence-to-Sequence models were introduced to tackle many real-life problems like machine translation, summarization, image captioning, etc. The standard optimization algorithms are mainly based on example-to-example matching like maximum likelihood estimation, which is known to suffer from data sparsity problem. Here we present an alternate view to explain sequence-to-sequence learning as a distribution matching problem, where each source or target example is viewed to represent a local latent distribution in the source or target domain. Then, we interpret sequence-to-sequence learning as learning a transductive model to transform the source local latent distributions to match their corresponding target distributions. In our framework, we approximate both the source and target latent distributions with recurrent neural networks (augmenter). During training, the parallel augmenters learn to better approximate the local latent distributions, while the sequence prediction model learns to minimize the KL-divergence of the transformed source distributions and the approximated target distributions. This algorithm can alleviate the data sparsity issues in sequence learning by locally augmenting more unseen data pairs and increasing the model's robustness. Experiments conducted on machine translation and image captioning consistently demonstrate the superiority of our proposed algorithm over the other competing algorithms.

One issue might be that many people have moved to ALE & OpenAI's Gym interface for API/environment implementations, and Python for implementation language. Your C library makes Python sound like a very second-class citizen, which is discouraging, and C is increasingly disfavored for its complexity & low-level nature. Just to get started with this, one has to learn the'Cassandra POMDP format', whatever that is, and then deal with C rather than Python. Are there that many people who want to solve MDPs in a tabular form whose preferred language is C and love defining their models in Cassandra POMDP format? You also don't have any impressive use-cases or demos of things which one can do easily in AIToolbox which can't be done elsewhere as easily, or as fast, or at all - what gives me any confidence that this is really mature and I won't simply invest days into learning it only to discover some severe limitation which makes it useless for me?

We present a novel framework that enables efficient probabilistic inference in large-scale scientific models by allowing the execution of existing domain-specific simulators as probabilistic programs, resulting in highly interpretable posterior inference. Our framework is general purpose and scalable, and is based on a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol through which an inference engine can control simulators in a language-agnostic way. We demonstrate the technique in particle physics, on a scientifically accurate simulation of the tau lepton decay, which is a key ingredient in establishing the properties of the Higgs boson. High-energy physics has a rich set of simulators based on quantum field theory and the interaction of particles in matter. We show how to use probabilistic programming to perform Bayesian inference in these existing simulator codebases directly, in particular conditioning on observable outputs from a simulated particle detector to directly produce an interpretable posterior distribution over decay pathways. Inference efficiency is achieved via inference compilation where a deep recurrent neural network is trained to parameterize proposal distributions and control the stochastic simulator in a sequential importance sampling scheme, at a fraction of the computational cost of Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling.

These representations are able to capture the variability of the demonstrations from a teacher as a probability distribution over trajectories, providing a sensible region of exploration and the ability to adapt to changes in the robot environment. However, to be able to capture variability and correlations between different joints, a probabilistic movement primitive requires the estimation of a larger number of parameters compared to their deterministic counterparts, that focus on modeling only the mean behavior. In this paper, we make use of prior distributions over the parameters of a probabilistic movement primitive to make robust estimates of the parameters with few training instances. In addition, we introduce general purpose operators to adapt movement primitives in joint and task space. The proposed training method and adaptation operators are tested in a coffee preparation and in robot table tennis task. In the coffee preparation task we evaluate the generalization performance to changes in the location of the coffee grinder and brewing chamber in a target area, achieving the desired behavior after only two demonstrations. In the table tennis task we evaluate the hit and return rates, outperforming previous approaches while using fewer task specific heuristics.

As the Portable Document Format (PDF) file format increases in popularity, research in analysing its structure for text extraction and analysis is necessary. Detecting headings can be a crucial component of classifying and extracting meaningful data. This research involves training a supervised learning model to detect headings with features carefully selected through recursive feature elimination. The best performing classifier had an accuracy of 96.95%, sensitivity of 0.986 and a specificity of 0.953. This research into heading detection contributes to the field of PDF based text extraction and can be applied to the automation of large scale PDF text analysis in a variety of professional and policy based contexts.

In the presented framework, known journey patterns are modelled as stochastic processes, emitting the road segments visited during the journey, and the ongoing journey is predicted by updating the posterior probability of each journey pattern given the road segments visited so far. In this contribution, we use Markov chains as models for the journey patterns, and consider the prediction as final, once one of the posterior probabilities crosses a predefined threshold. Despite the simplicity of both, examples run on a synthetic dataset demonstrate high accuracy of the made predictions.

Purpose: To identify the different machine learning (ML) techniques that have been applied to automate physician competence assessment and evaluate how these techniques can be used to assess different competence domains in several medical specialties. Method: In May 2017, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, Web of Science, ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore Digital Library, PROSPERO, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews were searched for articles published from inception to April 30, 2017. Studies were included if they applied at least one ML technique to assess medical students', residents', fellows', or attending physicians' competence. Information on sample size, participants, study setting and design, medical specialty, ML techniques, competence domains, outcomes, and methodological quality was extracted. MERSQI was used to evaluate quality, and a qualitative narrative synthesis of the medical specialties, ML techniques, and competence domains was conducted.

Hybrid Bayesian networks have received an increasing attention during the last years. The difference with respect to standard Bayesian networks is that they can host discrete and continuous variables simultaneously, which extends the applicability of the Bayesian network framework in general. However, this extra feature also comes at a cost: inference in these types of models is computationally more challenging and the underlying models and updating procedures may not even support closed-form solutions. In this paper we provide an overview of the main trends and principled approaches for performing inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The methods covered in the paper are organized and discussed according to their methodological basis. We consider how the methods have been extended and adapted to also include (hybrid) dynamic Bayesian networks, and we end with an overview of established software systems supporting inference in these types of models.

Solving statistical learning problems often involves nonconvex optimization. Despite the empirical success of nonconvex statistical optimization methods, their global dynamics, especially convergence to the desirable local minima, remain less well understood in theory. In this paper, we propose a new analytic paradigm based on diffusion processes to characterize the global dynamics of nonconvex statistical optimization. As a concrete example, we study stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for the tensor decomposition formulation of independent component analysis. In particular, we cast different phases of SGD into diffusion processes, i.e., solutions to stochastic differential equations. Initialized from an unstable equilibrium, the global dynamics of SGD transit over three consecutive phases: (i) an unstable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process slowly departing from the initialization, (ii) the solution to an ordinary differential equation, which quickly evolves towards the desirable local minimum, and (iii) a stable Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process oscillating around the desirable local minimum. Our proof techniques are based upon Stroock and Varadhan's weak convergence of Markov chains to diffusion processes, which are of independent interest.