Algorithms developed under stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) often face challenges in non-stationary environments, and infinite-horizon formulations may not directly apply to finite-horizon tasks. To address these limitations, we introduce the Non-stationary and Varying-discounting MDP (NVMDP) framework, which naturally accommodates non-stationarity and allows discount rates to vary with time and transitions. Infinite-horizon, stationary MDPs emerge as special cases of NVMDPs for identifying an optimal policy, and finite-horizon MDPs are also subsumed within the NVMDP formulations. Moreover, NVMDPs provide a flexible mechanism to shape optimal policies, without altering the state space, action space, or the reward structure. We establish the theoretical foundations of NVMDPs, including assumptions, state- and action-value formulation and recursion, matrix representation, optimality conditions, and policy improvement under finite state and action spaces. Building on these results, we adapt dynamic programming and generalized Q-learning algorithms to NVMDPs, along with formal convergence proofs. For problems requiring function approximation, we extend the Policy Gradient Theorem and the policy improvement bound in Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO), offering proofs in both scalar and matrix forms. Empirical evaluations in a non-stationary gridworld environment demonstrate that NVMDP-based algorithms successfully recover optimal trajectories under multiple reward and discounting schemes, whereas original Q-learning fails. These results collectively show that NVMDPs provide a theoretically sound and practically effective framework for reinforcement learning, requiring only minor algorithmic modifications while enabling robust handling of non-stationarity and explicit optimal policy shaping.

Thinking Large Language Models (LLMs) used as judges for pairwise preferences remain noisy at the single-sample level, and common aggregation rules (majority vote, soft self-consistency, or instruction-based self-aggregation) are inconsistent when ties are allowed. We study inference-time compute (ITC) for evaluators that generate n independent thinking-rating samples per item, and propose a principled, distribution-calibrated aggregation scheme. Our method models three-way preferences with a Bradley-Terry-Davidson formulation on rating counts, leveraging both polarity (margin among non-ties) and decisiveness (non-tie rate) to distinguish narrow margins from strong consensus. Across various evaluation benchmarks, our approach consistently reduces MAE and increases pairwise accuracy versus standard baselines, and when evaluated against human-consensus meta-labels, matches or exceeds individual human raters. These results show that carefully allocating ITC and aggregating with distribution-aware methods turns noisy individual model judgments into reliable ratings for evaluation. Thinking large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being employed as automated judges for evaluating the output of other generative systems, a paradigm known as "Thinking-LLM-as-a-Judge" (Saha et al., 2025). This approach offers a scalable and cost-effective alternative to human evaluation, which is often slow and expensive. To mitigate the inherent stochasticity and noise of single-pass judgments, a common strategy is to leverage inference-time compute (ITC) Snell et al. (2024) by generating multiple independent reasoning and rating samples for each item being evaluated. However, the reliability of the final judgment hinges critically on how these multiple outputs are aggregated. Current aggregation methods, such as majority voting (Self-Consistency (Wang et al., 2023b)) or heuristics based on model confidence scores or LLM generated aggregators, are often brittle and statistically suboptimal.

Safe autonomous driving in mixed traffic requires a unified understanding of multimodal interactions and dynamic planning under uncertainty. Existing learning based approaches struggle to capture rare but safety critical behaviors, while rule based systems often lack adaptability in complex interactions. To address these limitations, CogDrive introduces a cognition driven multimodal prediction and planning framework that integrates explicit modal reasoning with safety aware trajectory optimization. The prediction module adopts cognitive representations of interaction modes based on topological motion semantics and nearest neighbor relational encoding. With a differentiable modal loss and multimodal Gaussian decoding, CogDrive learns sparse and unbalanced interaction behaviors and improves long horizon trajectory prediction. The planning module incorporates an emergency response concept and optimizes safety stabilized trajectories, where short term consistent branches ensure safety during replanning cycles and long term branches support smooth and collision free motion under low probability switching modes. Experiments on Argoverse2 and INTERACTION datasets show that CogDrive achieves strong performance in trajectory accuracy and miss rate, while closed loop simulations confirm adaptive behavior in merge and intersection scenarios. By combining cognitive multimodal prediction with safety oriented planning, CogDrive offers an interpretable and reliable paradigm for safe autonomy in complex traffic.

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying reliable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), where existing approaches primarily rely on Bayesian inference or ensembles. In this paper, we introduce the first credal graph neural networks (CGNNs), which extend credal learning to the graph domain by training GNNs to output set-valued predictions in the form of credal sets. To account for the distinctive nature of message passing in GNNs, we develop a complementary approach to credal learning that leverages different aspects of layer-wise information propagation. We assess our approach on uncertainty quantification in node classification under out-of-distribution conditions. Our analysis highlights the critical role of the graph homophily assumption in shaping the effectiveness of uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CGNNs deliver more reliable representations of epistemic uncertainty and achieve state-of-the-art performance under distributional shift on heterophilic graphs.

Born-rule generative modeling, a central task in quantum machine learning, seeks to learn probability distributions that can be efficiently sampled by measuring complex quantum states. One hope is for quantum models to efficiently capture probability distributions that are difficult to learn and simulate by classical means alone. Quantum Boltzmann machines were proposed about one decade ago for this purpose, yet efficient training methods have remained elusive. In this paper, I overcome this obstacle by proposing a practical solution that trains quantum Boltzmann machines for Born-rule generative modeling. Two key ingredients in the proposal are the Donsker-Varadhan variational representation of the classical relative entropy and the quantum Boltzmann gradient estimator of [Patel et al., arXiv:2410.12935]. I present the main result for a more general ansatz known as an evolved quantum Boltzmann machine [Minervini et al., arXiv:2501.03367], which combines parameterized real- and imaginary-time evolution. I also show how to extend the findings to other distinguishability measures beyond relative entropy. Finally, I present four different hybrid quantum-classical algorithms for the minimax optimization underlying training, and I discuss their theoretical convergence guarantees.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at explicit reasoning, but their implicit computational strategies remain underexplored. Decades of psychophysics research show that humans intuitively process and integrate noisy signals using near-optimal Bayesian strategies in perceptual tasks. We ask whether LLMs exhibit similar behaviour and perform optimal multimodal integration without explicit training or instruction. Adopting the psychophysics paradigm, we infer computational principles of LLMs from systematic behavioural studies. We introduce a behavioural benchmark - BayesBench: four magnitude estimation tasks (length, location, distance, and duration) over text and image, inspired by classic psychophysics, and evaluate a diverse set of nine LLMs alongside human judgments for calibration. Through controlled ablations of noise, context, and instruction prompts, we measure performance, behaviour and efficiency in multimodal cue-combination. Beyond accuracy and efficiency metrics, we introduce a Bayesian Consistency Score that detects Bayes-consistent behavioural shifts even when accuracy saturates. Our results show that while capable models often adapt in Bayes-consistent ways, accuracy does not guarantee robustness. Notably, GPT-5 Mini achieves perfect text accuracy but fails to integrate visual cues efficiently. This reveals a critical dissociation between capability and strategy, suggesting accuracy-centric benchmarks may over-index on performance while missing brittle uncertainty handling. These findings reveal emergent principled handling of uncertainty and highlight the correlation between accuracy and Bayesian tendencies. We release our psychophysics benchmark and consistency metric (https://bayes-bench.github.io) as evaluation tools and to inform future multimodal architecture designs.

The computational demands of modern Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are immense and constantly growing. While training costs usually capture public attention, inference demands are also contributing in significant computational, energy and environmental footprints. Sparsity stands out as a critical mechanism for drastically reducing these resource demands. However, its potential remains largely untapped and is not yet fully incorporated in production AI systems. To bridge this gap, this work provides the necessary knowledge and insights for performance engineers keen to get involved in deep learning inference optimization. In particular, in this work we: a) discuss the various forms of sparsity that can be utilized in DNN inference, b) explain how the original dense computations translate to sparse kernels, c) provide an extensive bibliographic review of the state-of-the-art in the implementation of these kernels for CPUs and GPUs, d) discuss the availability of sparse datasets in support of sparsity-related research and development, e) explore the current software tools and frameworks that provide robust sparsity support, and f) present evaluation results of different implementations of the key SpMM and SDDMM kernels on CPU and GPU platforms. Ultimately, this paper aims to serve as a resource for performance engineers seeking to develop and deploy highly efficient sparse deep learning models in productions.

World models have gained significant attention as a promising approach for autonomous driving. By emulating human-like perception and decision-making processes, these models can predict and adapt to dynamic environments. Existing methods typically map high-dimensional observations into compact latent spaces and learn optimal policies within these latent representations. However, prior work usually jointly learns ego-vehicle dynamics and environmental transition dynamics from the image input, leading to inefficiencies and a lack of robustness to variations in vehicle dynamics. To address these issues, we propose the Vehicle Dynamics embedded Dreamer (VDD) method, which decouples the modeling of ego-vehicle dynamics from environmental transition dynamics. This separation allows the world model to generalize effectively across vehicles with diverse parameters. Additionally, we introduce two strategies to further enhance the robustness of the learned policy: Policy Adjustment during Deployment (PAD) and Policy Augmentation during Training (PAT). Comprehensive experiments in simulated environments demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves both driving performance and robustness to variations in vehicle dynamics, outperforming existing approaches.

World models have been recently proposed as sandbox environments in which AI agents can be trained and evaluated before deployment. Although realistic world models often have high computational demands, efficient modelling is usually possible by exploiting the fact that real-world scenarios tend to involve subcomponents that interact in a modular manner. In this paper, we explore this idea by developing a framework for decomposing complex world models represented by transducers, a class of models gen-eralising POMDPs. Whereas the composition of transducers is well understood, our results clarify how to invert this process deriving sub-transducers operating on distinct input-output subspaces, enabling parallelizable and interpretable alternatives to monolithic world modelling that can support distributed inference. Overall, these results lay a groundwork for bridging the structural transparency demanded by AI safety and the computational efficiency required for real-world inference.

Timely assessment of current conditions is essential especially for small, open economies such as Singapore, where external shocks transmit rapidly to domestic activity. We develop a real-time nowcasting framework for quarterly GDP growth using a high-dimensional panel of approximately 70 indicators, encompassing economic and financial indicators over 1990Q1-2023Q2. The analysis covers penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction methods, ensemble learning algorithms, and neural architectures, benchmarked against a Random Walk, an AR(3), and a Dynamic Factor Model. The pipeline preserves temporal ordering through an expanding-window walk-forward design with Bayesian hyperparameter optimization, and uses moving block-bootstrap procedures both to construct prediction intervals and to obtain confidence bands for feature-importance measures. It adopts model-specific and XAI-based explainability tools. A Model Confidence Set procedure identifies statistically superior learners, which are then combined through simple, weighted, and exponentially weighted schemes; the resulting time-varying weights provide an interpretable representation of model contributions. Predictive ability is assessed via Giacomini-White tests. Empirical results show that penalized regressions, dimensionality-reduction models, and GRU networks consistently outperform all benchmarks, with RMSFE reductions of roughly 40-60%; aggregation delivers further gains. Feature-attribution methods highlight industrial production, external trade, and labor-market indicators as dominant drivers of Singapore's short-run growth dynamics.