Learning Graphical Models
Activity Recognition using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models on Streaming Sensor Data
Asghari, Parviz, Nazerfard, Ehsan
Although each challenge in the field of recognition has great importance, the most important one refers to online activity recognition. The present study tries to use online hierarchical hidden Markov model to detect an activity on the stream of sensor data which can predict the activity in the environment with any sensor event. The activity recognition samples were labeled by the statistical features such as the duration of activity. The results of our proposed method test on two different datasets of smart homes in the real world showed that one dataset has improved 4% and reached (59%) while the results reached 64.6% for the other data by using the best methods.
Compositional planning in Markov decision processes: Temporal abstraction meets generalized logic composition
Abstract-- In hierarchical planning for Markov decision processes (MDPs), temporal abstraction allows planning with macro-actions that take place at different time scale in form of sequential composition. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to compositional reasoning and hierarchical planning for MDPs under temporal logic constraints. In addition to sequential composition, we introduce a composition of policies based on generalized logic composition: Given sub-policies for sub-tasks and a new task expressed as logic compositions of subtasks, a semi-optimal policy, which is optimal in planning with only sub-policies, can be obtained by simply composing sub-polices. Thus, a synthesis algorithm is developed to compute optimal policies efficiently by planning with primitive actions, policies for sub-tasks, and the compositions of sub-policies, for maximizing the probability of satisfying temporal logic specifications. We demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of the proposed method in stochastic planning examples with a single agent and multiple task specifications. I. INTRODUCTION Temporal logic is an expressive language to describe desired system properties: safety, reachability, obligation, stability, and liveness [18]. The algorithms for planning and probabilistic verification with temporal logic constraints have developed, with both centralized [2], [7], [17] and distributed methods [10]. Yet, there are two main barriers to practical applications: 1) The issue of scalability: In temporal logic constrained control problems, it is often necessary to introduce additional memory states for keeping track of the evolution of state variables with respect to these temporal logic constraints. The additional memory states grow exponentially (or double exponentially depending on the class of temporal logic) in the length of a specification [11] and make synthesis computational extensive.
Facebook's PyTorch plans to light the way to speedy workflows for Machine Learning • DEVCLASS
Facebook's development department has finished a first release candidate for v1 of its PyTorch project – just in time for the first conference dedicated to the Python package. For those not familiar with the tool, its main features are NumPy-like tensor computation with GPU acceleration and a special deep neural network implementation. The preview contains a new set of compiler tools that at runtime rewrite PyTorch models to be more efficient. The just-in-time compiler should also be able to export models that are able to run in a C only runtime. Optimisation is optional and can be done either by tracing native Python code with torch.jit.trace or using a Python subset called Torch Script.
Inhibited Softmax for Uncertainty Estimation in Neural Networks
Możejko, Marcin, Susik, Mateusz, Karczewski, Rafał
We present a new method for uncertainty estimation and out-of-distribution detection in neural networks with softmax output. We extend softmax layer with an additional constant input. The corresponding additional output is able to represent the uncertainty of the network. The proposed method requires neither additional parameters nor multiple forward passes nor input preprocessing nor out-of-distribution datasets. We show that our method performs comparably to more computationally expensive methods and outperforms baselines on our experiments from image recognition and sentiment analysis domains. The applications of computational learning systems might cause intrusive effects if we assume that predictions are always as accurate as during the experimental phase. Examples include misclassified traffic signs (Evtimov et al., 2018) and an image tagger that classified two African Americans as gorillas (Curtis, 2015). This is often caused by overconfidence of models that has been observed in the case of deep neural networks (Guo et al., 2017). Such malfunctions can be prevented if we estimate correctly the uncertainty of the machine learning system.
A Bayesian model for sparse graphs with flexible degree distribution and overlapping community structure
Lee, Juho, James, Lancelot F., Choi, Seungjin, Caron, François
We consider a non-projective class of inhomogeneous random graph models with interpretable parameters and a number of interesting asymptotic properties. Using the results of Bollob\'as et al. [2007], we show that i) the class of models is sparse and ii) depending on the choice of the parameters, the model is either scale-free, with power-law exponent greater than 2, or with an asymptotic degree distribution which is power-law with exponential cut-off. We propose an extension of the model that can accommodate an overlapping community structure. Scalable posterior inference can be performed due to the specific choice of the link probability. We present experiments on five different real-world networks with up to 100,000 nodes and edges, showing that the model can provide a good fit to the degree distribution and recovers well the latent community structure.
Combining Natural Gradient with Hessian Free Methods for Sequence Training
Haider, Adnan, Woodland, P. C.
This paper presents a new optimisation approach to train Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) with discriminative sequence criteria. At each iteration, the method combines information from the Natural Gradient (NG) direction with local curvature information of the error surface that enables better paths on the parameter manifold to be traversed. The method is derived using an alternative derivation of Taylor's theorem using the concepts of manifolds, tangent vectors and directional derivatives from the perspective of Information Geometry. The efficacy of the method is shown within a Hessian Free (HF) style optimisation framework to sequence train both standard fully-connected DNNs and Time Delay Neural Networks as speech recognition acoustic models. It is shown that for the same number of updates the proposed approach achieves larger reductions in the word error rate (WER) than both NG and HF, and also leads to a lower WER than standard stochastic gradient descent. The paper also addresses the issue of over-fitting due to mismatch between training criterion and Word Error Rate (WER) that primarily arises during sequence training of ReLU-DNN models.
Discriminative Data-driven Self-adaptive Fraud Control Decision System with Incomplete Information
Li, Junxuan, Liu, Yung-wen, Jia, Yuting, Nanduri, Jay
While E-commerce has been growing explosively and online shopping has become popular and even dominant in the present era, online transaction fraud control has drawn considerable attention in business practice and academic research. Conventional fraud control considers mainly the interactions of two major involved decision parties, i.e. merchants and fraudsters, to make fraud classification decision without paying much attention to dynamic looping effect arose from the decisions made by other profit-related parties. This paper proposes a novel fraud control framework that can quantify interactive effects of decisions made by different parties and can adjust fraud control strategies using data analytics, artificial intelligence, and dynamic optimization techniques. Three control models, Naive, Myopic and Prospective Controls, were developed based on the availability of data attributes and levels of label maturity. The proposed models are purely data-driven and self-adaptive in a real-time manner. The field test on Microsoft real online transaction data suggested that new systems could sizably improve the company's profit.
The Dreaming Variational Autoencoder for Reinforcement Learning Environments
Andersen, Per-Arne, Goodwin, Morten, Granmo, Ole-Christoffer
Reinforcement learning has shown great potential in generalizing over raw sensory data using only a single neural network for value optimization. There are several challenges in the current state-of-the-art reinforcement learning algorithms that prevent them from converging towards the global optima. It is likely that the solution to these problems lies in short- and long-term planning, exploration and memory management for reinforcement learning algorithms. Games are often used to benchmark reinforcement learning algorithms as they provide a flexible, reproducible, and easy to control environment. Regardless, few games feature a state-space where results in exploration, memory, and planning are easily perceived. This paper presents The Dreaming Variational Autoencoder (DVAE), a neural network based generative modeling architecture for exploration in environments with sparse feedback. We further present Deep Maze, a novel and flexible maze engine that challenges DVAE in partial and fully-observable state-spaces, long-horizon tasks, and deterministic and stochastic problems. We show initial findings and encourage further work in reinforcement learning driven by generative exploration.
Automated learning with a probabilistic programming language: Birch
Murray, Lawrence M., Schön, Thomas B.
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this workflow, especially in the matching of models with inference methods. We focus on two properties of a model that are critical in this matching: its structure---the conditional dependencies between random variables---and its form---the precise mathematical definition of those dependencies. While the structure and form of a probabilistic model are often fixed a priori, it is a curiosity of probabilistic programming that they need not be, and may instead vary according to random choices made during program execution. We introduce a formal description of models expressed as programs, and discuss some of the ways in which probabilistic programming languages can reveal the structure and form of these, in order to tailor inference methods. We demonstrate the ideas with a new probabilistic programming language called Birch, with a multiple object tracking example.