Algorithmic assurances from advanced autonomous systems assist human users in understanding, trusting, and using such systems appropriately. Designing these systems with the capacity of assessing their own capabilities is one approach to creating an algorithmic assurance. The idea of `machine self-confidence' is introduced for autonomous systems. Using a factorization based framework for self-confidence assessment, one component of self-confidence, called `solver-quality', is discussed in the context of Markov decision processes for autonomous systems. Markov decision processes underlie much of the theory of reinforcement learning, and are commonly used for planning and decision making under uncertainty in robotics and autonomous systems. A `solver quality' metric is formally defined in the context of decision making algorithms based on Markov decision processes. A method for assessing solver quality is then derived, drawing inspiration from empirical hardness models. Finally, numerical experiments for an unmanned autonomous vehicle navigation problem under different solver, parameter, and environment conditions indicate that the self-confidence metric exhibits the desired properties. Discussion of results, and avenues for future investigation are included.

Change detection involves segmenting sequential data such that observations in the same segment share some desired properties. Multivariate change detection continues to be a challenging problem due to the variety of ways change points can be correlated across channels and the potentially poor signal-to-noise ratio on individual channels. In this paper, we are interested in locating additive outliers (AO) and level shifts (LS) in the unsupervised setting. We propose ABACUS, Automatic BAyesian Changepoints Under Sparsity, a Bayesian source separation technique to recover latent signals while also detecting changes in model parameters. Multi-level sparsity achieves both dimension reduction and modeling of signal changes. We show ABACUS has competitive or superior performance in simulation studies against state-of-the-art change detection methods and established latent variable models. We also illustrate ABACUS on two real application, modeling genomic profiles and analyzing household electricity consumption.

This paper develops a low-nonnegative-rank approximation method to identify the state aggregation structure of a finite-state Markov chain under an assumption that the state space can be mapped into a handful of meta-states. The number of meta-states is characterized by the nonnegative rank of the Markov transition matrix. Motivated by the success of the nuclear norm relaxation in low rank minimization problems, we propose an atomic regularizer as a convex surrogate for the nonnegative rank and formulate a convex optimization problem. Because the atomic regularizer itself is not computationally tractable, we instead solve a sequence of problems involving a nonnegative factorization of the Markov transition matrices by using the proximal alternating linearized minimization method. Two methods for adjusting the rank of factorization are developed so that local minima are escaped. One is to append an additional column to the factorized matrices, which can be interpreted as an approximation of a negative subgradient step. The other is to reduce redundant dimensions by means of linear combinations. Overall, the proposed algorithm very likely converges to the global solution. The efficiency and statistical properties of our approach are illustrated on synthetic data. We also apply our state aggregation algorithm on a Manhattan transportation data set and make extensive comparisons with an existing method.

In this paper, a novel circular and structural operator tracker (CSOT) is proposed for high performance visual tracking, it not only possesses the powerful discriminative capability of SOSVM but also efficiently inherits the superior computational efficiency of DCF. Based on the proposed circular and structural operators, a set of primal confidence score maps can be obtained by circular correlating feature maps with their corresponding structural correlation filters. Furthermore, an implicit interpolation is applied to convert the multi-resolution feature maps to the continuous domain and make all primal confidence score maps have the same spatial resolution. Then, we exploit an efficient ensemble post-processor based on relative entropy, which can coalesce primal confidence score maps and create an optimal confidence score map for more accurate localization. The target is localized on the peak of the optimal confidence score map. Besides, we introduce a collaborative optimization strategy to update circular and structural operators by iteratively training structural correlation filters, which significantly reduces computational complexity and improves robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in mean AUC scores of 71.5% and 69.4% on the OTB-2013 and OTB-2015 benchmarks respectively, and obtains a third-best expected average overlap (EAO) score of 29.8% on the VOT-2017 benchmark.

Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) can achieve promising performance on learning complex data distributions on different types of data. In this paper, we first show a straightforward extension of existing GAN algorithm is not applicable to point clouds, because the constraint required for discriminators is undefined for set data. We propose a two fold modification to GAN algorithm for learning to generate point clouds (PC-GAN). First, we combine ideas from hierarchical Bayesian modeling and implicit generative models by learning a hierarchical and interpretable sampling process. A key component of our method is that we train a posterior inference network for the hidden variables. Second, instead of using only state-of-the-art Wasserstein GAN objective, we propose a sandwiching objective, which results in a tighter Wasserstein distance estimate than the commonly used dual form. Thereby, PC-GAN defines a generic framework that can incorporate many existing GAN algorithms. We validate our claims on ModelNet40 benchmark dataset. Using the distance between generated point clouds and true meshes as metric, we find that PC-GAN trained by the sandwiching objective achieves better results on test data than the existing methods. Moreover, as a byproduct, PC- GAN learns versatile latent representations of point clouds, which can achieve competitive performance with other unsupervised learning algorithms on object recognition task. Lastly, we also provide studies on generating unseen classes of objects and transforming image to point cloud, which demonstrates the compelling generalization capability and potentials of PC-GAN.

Parameter learning is the technique for obtaining the probabilistic parameters in conditional probability tables in Bayesian networks from tables with (observed) data --- where it is assumed that the underlying graphical structure is known. There are basically two ways of doing so, referred to as maximal likelihood estimation (MLE) and as Bayesian learning. This paper provides a categorical analysis of these two techniques and describes them in terms of basic properties of the multiset monad M, the distribution monad D and the Giry monad G. In essence, learning is about the reltionships between multisets (used for counting) on the one hand and probability distributions on the other. These relationsips will be described as suitable natural transformations.

The Universal Turing Machine (TM) is a model for VonNeumann computers --- general-purpose computers. A human brain can inside-skull-automatically learn a universal TM so that he acts as a general-purpose computer and writes a computer program for any practical purposes. It is unknown whether a machine can accomplish the same. This theoretical work shows how the Developmental Network (DN) can accomplish this. Unlike a traditional TM, the TM learned by DN is a super TM --- Grounded, Emergent, Natural, Incremental, Skulled, Attentive, Motivated, and Abstractive (GENISAMA). A DN is free of any central controller (e.g., Master Map, convolution, or error back-propagation). Its learning from a teacher TM is one transition observation at a time, immediate, and error-free until all its neurons have been initialized by early observed teacher transitions. From that point on, the DN is no longer error-free but is always optimal at every time instance in the sense of maximal likelihood, conditioned on its limited computational resources and the learning experience. This letter also extends the Church-Turing thesis to automatic programming for general purposes and sketchily proved it.

Computer simulation provides an automatic and safe way for training robotic control policies to achieve complex tasks such as locomotion. However, a policy trained in simulation usually does not transfer directly to the real hardware due to the differences between the two environments. Transfer learning using domain randomization is a promising approach, but it usually assumes that the target environment is close to the distribution of the training environments, thus relying heavily on accurate system identification. In this paper, we present a different approach that leverages domain randomization for transferring control policies to unknown environments. The key idea that, instead of learning a single policy in the simulation, we simultaneously learn a family of policies that exhibit different behaviors. When tested in the target environment, we directly search for the best policy in the family based on the task performance, without the need to identify the dynamic parameters. We evaluate our method on five simulated robotic control problems with different discrepancies in the training and testing environment and demonstrate that our method can overcome larger modeling errors compared to training a robust policy or an adaptive policy. Recent developments in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) have shown the potential to learn complex robotic controllers in an automatic way with minimal human intervention. However, due to the high sample complexity of DRL algorithms, directly training control policies on the hardware still remains largely impractical for agile tasks such as locomotion. A promising direction to address this issue is to use the idea of transfer learning which learns a model in a source environment and transfers it to a target environment of interest. In the context of learning robotic control policies, we can consider the real world the target environment and the computer simulation the source environment.

E-learning systems are capable of providing more adaptive and efficient learning experiences for students than the traditional classroom setting. A key component of such systems is the learning strategy, the algorithm that designs the learning paths for students based on information such as the students' current progresses, their skills, learning materials, and etc. In this paper, we address the problem of finding the optimal learning strategy for an E-learning system. To this end, we first develop a model for students' hierarchical skills in the E-learning system. Based on the hierarchical skill model and the classical cognitive diagnosis model, we further develop a framework to model various proficiency levels of hierarchical skills. The optimal learning strategy on top of the hierarchical structure is found by applying a model-free reinforcement learning method, which does not require information on students' learning transition process. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is demonstrated via numerical experiments.

In this paper, we develop a non-parametric Bayesian estimation of Hawkes process kernel functions. Our method is based on the cluster representation of Hawkes processes. We sample random branching structures, and thus split the Hawkes process into clusters of Poisson processes, where the intensity function of each of these processes is the nonparametric triggering kernel of the Hawkes process. We derive both a block Gibbs sampler and a maximum a posteriori estimator based on stochastic expectation maximization. On synthetic data, we show our method to be flexible and scalable, and on two largescale Twitter diffusion datasets, we show our method to outperform the parametric Hawkes model. We observe that the learned non-parametric kernel reflects the longevity of different content types. Code has been made publicly available.