Learning Graphical Models
Mobile Sound Recognition for the Deaf and Hard of Hearing
Fanzeres, Leonardo A., Vivacqua, Adriana S., Biscainho, Luiz W. P.
Human perception of surrounding events is strongly dependent on audio cues. Thus, acoustic insulation can seriously impact situational awareness. We present an exploratory study in the domain of assistive computing, eliciting requirements and presenting solutions to problems found in the development of an environmental sound recognition system, which aims to assist deaf and hard of hearing people in the perception of sounds. To take advantage of smartphones computational ubiquity, we propose a system that executes all processing on the device itself, from audio features extraction to recognition and visual presentation of results. Our application also presents the confidence level of the classification to the user. A test of the system conducted with deaf users provided important and inspiring feedback from participants.
Micro-Browsing Models for Search Snippets
Islam, Muhammad Asiful, Srikant, Ramakrishnan, Basu, Sugato
Abstract--Click-through rate (CTR) is a key signal of relevance for search engine results, both organic and sponsored. CTR of a result has two core components: (a) the probability of examination of a result by a user, and (b) the perceived relevance of the result given that it has been examined by the user . There has been considerable work on user browsing models, to model and analyze both the examination and the relevance components of CTR. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation: a micro-browsing model for how users read result snippets. The snippet text of a result often plays a critical role in the perceived relevance of the result. We study how particular words within a line of snippet can influence user behavior . We validate this new micro-browsing user model by considering the problem of predicting which snippet will yield higher CTR, and show that classification accuracy is dramatically higher with our micro-browsing user model. The key insight in this paper is that varying relatively few words within a snippet, and even their location within a snippet, can have a significant influence on the clickthrough of a snippet. Web search engines have become an essential tool for navigating the vast amounts of information on the internet.
Infinite Factorial Finite State Machine for Blind Multiuser Channel Estimation
Ruiz, Francisco J. R., Valera, Isabel, Svensson, Lennart, Perez-Cruz, Fernando
New communication standards need to deal with machine-to-machine communications, in which users may start or stop transmitting at any time in an asynchronous manner. Thus, the number of users is an unknown and time-varying parameter that needs to be accurately estimated in order to properly recover the symbols transmitted by all users in the system. In this paper, we address the problem of joint channel parameter and data estimation in a multiuser communication channel in which the number of transmitters is not known. For that purpose, we develop the infinite factorial finite state machine model, a Bayesian nonparametric model based on the Markov Indian buffet that allows for an unbounded number of transmitters with arbitrary channel length. We propose an inference algorithm that makes use of slice sampling and particle Gibbs with ancestor sampling. Our approach is fully blind as it does not require a prior channel estimation step, prior knowledge of the number of transmitters, or any signaling information. Our experimental results, loosely based on the LTE random access channel, show that the proposed approach can effectively recover the data-generating process for a wide range of scenarios, with varying number of transmitters, number of receivers, constellation order, channel length, and signal-to-noise ratio.
Trust Region Policy Optimization of POMDPs
Azizzadenesheli, Kamyar, Bera, Manish Kumar, Anandkumar, Animashree
We propose Generalized Trust Region Policy Optimization (GTRPO), a Reinforcement Learning algorithm for TRPO of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDP). While the principle of policy gradient methods does not require any model assumption, previous studies of more sophisticated policy gradient methods are mainly limited to MDPs. Many real-world decision-making tasks, however, are inherently non-Markovian, i.e., only an incomplete representation of the environment is observable. Moreover, most of the advanced policy gradient methods are designed for infinite horizon MDPs. Our proposed algorithm, GTRPO, is a policy gradient method for continuous episodic POMDPs. We prove that its policy updates monotonically improve the expected cumulative return. We empirically study GTRPO on many RoboSchool environments, an extension to the MuJoCo environments, and provide insights into its empirical behavior.
Adaptive Clinical Trials: Exploiting Sequential Patient Recruitment and Allocation
Atan, Onur, Zame, William R., van der Schaar, Mihaela
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are the gold standard for comparing the effectiveness of a new treatment to the current one (the control). Most RCTs allocate the patients to the treatment group and the control group by uniform randomization. We show that this procedure can be highly sub-optimal (in terms of learning) if -- as is often the case -- patients can be recruited in cohorts (rather than all at once), the effects on each cohort can be observed before recruiting the next cohort, and the effects are heterogeneous across identifiable subgroups of patients. We formulate the patient allocation problem as a finite stage Markov Decision Process in which the objective is to minimize a given weighted combination of type-I and type-II errors. Because finding the exact solution to this Markov Decision Process is computationally intractable, we propose an algorithm -- \textit{Knowledge Gradient for Randomized Controlled Trials} (RCT-KG) -- that yields an approximate solution. We illustrate our algorithm on a synthetic dataset with Bernoulli outcomes and compare it with uniform randomization. For a given size of trial our method achieves significant reduction in error, and to achieve a prescribed level of confidence (in identifying whether the treatment is superior to the control), our method requires many fewer patients. Our approach uses what has been learned from the effects on previous cohorts to recruit patients to subgroups and allocate patients (to treatment/control) within subgroups in a way that promotes more efficient learning.
Visions of a generalized probability theory
In this Book we argue that the fruitful interaction of computer vision and belief calculus is capable of stimulating significant advances in both fields. From a methodological point of view, novel theoretical results concerning the geometric and algebraic properties of belief functions as mathematical objects are illustrated and discussed in Part II, with a focus on both a perspective 'geometric approach' to uncertainty and an algebraic solution to the issue of conflicting evidence. In Part III we show how these theoretical developments arise from important computer vision problems (such as articulated object tracking, data association and object pose estimation) to which, in turn, the evidential formalism is able to provide interesting new solutions. Finally, some initial steps towards a generalization of the notion of total probability to belief functions are taken, in the perspective of endowing the theory of evidence with a complete battery of estimation and inference tools to the benefit of all scientists and practitioners.
Approximate Dynamic Programming for Planning a Ride-Sharing System using Autonomous Fleets of Electric Vehicles
Al-Kanj, Lina, Nascimento, Juliana, Powell, Warren B.
Within a decade, almost every major auto company, along with fleet operators such as Uber, have announced plans to put autonomous vehicles on the road. At the same time, electric vehicles are quickly emerging as a next-generation technology that is cost effective, in addition to offering the benefits of reducing the carbon footprint. The combination of a centrally managed fleet of driverless vehicles, along with the operating characteristics of electric vehicles, is creating a transformative new technology that offers significant cost savings with high service levels. This problem involves a dispatch problem for assigning riders to cars, a planning problem for deciding on the fleet size, and a surge pricing problem for deciding on the price per trip. In this work, we propose to use approximate dynamic programming to develop high-quality operational dispatch strategies to determine which car (given the battery level) is best for a particular trip (considering its length and destination), when a car should be recharged, and when it should be re-positioned to a different zone which offers a higher density of trips. We then discuss surge pricing using an adaptive learning approach to decide on the price for each trip. Finally, we discuss the fleet size problem which depends on the previous two problems.
Generalized Earthquake Frequency-Magnitude Distribution Described by Asymmetric Laplace Mixture Modelling
The complete part of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD), above completeness magnitude mc, is well described by the Gutenberg-Richter law. The parameter mc however varies in space due to the seismic network configuration, yielding a convoluted FMD shape below max(mc). This paper investigates the shape of the generalized FMD (GFMD), which may be described as a mixture of elemental FMDs (eFMDs) defined as asymmetric Laplace distributions of mode mc [Mignan, 2012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JB009347]. An asymmetric Laplace mixture model (GFMD- ALMM) is thus proposed with its parameters (detection parameter kappa, Gutenberg-Richter beta-value, mc distribution, as well as number K and weight w of eFMD components) estimated using a semi-supervised hard expectation maximization approach including BIC penalties for model complexity. The performance of the proposed method is analysed, with encouraging results obtained: kappa, beta, and the mc distribution range are retrieved for different GFMD shapes in simulations, as well as in regional catalogues (southern and northern California, Nevada, Taiwan, France), in a global catalogue, and in an aftershock sequence (Christchurch, New Zealand). We find max(mc) to be conservative compared to other methods, kappa = k/log(10) = 3 in most catalogues (compared to beta = b/log(10) = 1), but also that biases in kappa and beta may occur when rounding errors are present below completeness. The GFMD-ALMM, by modelling different FMD shapes in an autonomous manner, opens the door to new statistical analyses in the realm of incomplete seismicity data, which could in theory improve earthquake forecasting by considering c. ten times more events.
Hierarchical Methods of Moments
Ruffini, Matteo, Rabusseau, Guillaume, Balle, Borja
Spectral methods of moments provide a powerful tool for learning the parameters of latent variable models. Despite their theoretical appeal, the applicability of these methods to real data is still limited due to a lack of robustness to model misspecification. In this paper we present a hierarchical approach to methods of moments to circumvent such limitations. Our method is based on replacing the tensor decomposition step used in previous algorithms with approximate joint diagonalization. Experiments on topic modeling show that our method outperforms previous tensor decomposition methods in terms of speed and model quality.
EMHMM Simulation Study
Chan, Antoni B., Hsiao, Janet H.
Eye Movement analysis with Hidden Markov Models (EMHMM) is a method for modeling eye fixation sequences using hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this report, we run a simulation study to investigate the estimation error for learning HMMs with variational Bayesian inference, with respect to the number of sequences and the sequence lengths. We also relate the estimation error measured by KL divergence and L1-norm to a corresponding distortion in the ground-truth HMM parameters.