In Dynamic Ensemble Selection (DES) techniques, only the most competent classifiers are selected to classify a given query sample. Hence, the key issue in DES is how to estimate the competence of each classifier in a pool to select the most competent ones. In order to deal with this issue, we proposed a novel dynamic ensemble selection framework using meta-learning, called META-DES. The framework is divided into three steps. In the first step, the pool of classifiers is generated from the training data. In the second phase the meta-features are computed using the training data and used to train a meta-classifier that is able to predict whether or not a base classifier from the pool is competent enough to classify an input instance. In this paper, we propose improvements to the training and generalization phase of the META-DES framework. In the training phase, we evaluate four different algorithms for the training of the meta-classifier. For the generalization phase, three combination approaches are evaluated: Dynamic selection, where only the classifiers that attain a certain competence level are selected; Dynamic weighting, where the meta-classifier estimates the competence of each classifier in the pool, and the outputs of all classifiers in the pool are weighted based on their level of competence; and a hybrid approach, in which first an ensemble with the most competent classifiers is selected, after which the weights of the selected classifiers are estimated in order to be used in a weighted majority voting scheme. Experiments are carried out on 30 classification datasets. Experimental results demonstrate that the changes proposed in this paper significantly improve the recognition accuracy of the system in several datasets.

This paper introduces a method, based on deep reinforcement learning, for automatically generating a general purpose decision making function. A Deep Q-Network agent was trained in a simulated environment to handle speed and lane change decisions for a truck-trailer combination. In a highway driving case, it is shown that the method produced an agent that matched or surpassed the performance of a commonly used reference model. To demonstrate the generality of the method, the exact same algorithm was also tested by training it for an overtaking case on a road with oncoming traffic. Furthermore, a novel way of applying a convolutional neural network to high level input that represents interchangeable objects is also introduced.

Generalized linear models (GLMs) arise in high-dimensional machine learning, statistics, communications and signal processing. In this paper we analyze GLMs when the data matrix is random, as relevant in problems such as compressed sensing, error-correcting codes or benchmark models in neural networks. We evaluate the mutual information (or "free entropy") from which we deduce the Bayes-optimal estimation and generalization errors. Our analysis applies to the high-dimensional limit where both the number of samples and the dimension are large and their ratio is fixed. Non-rigorous predictions for the optimal errors existed for special cases of GLMs, e.g. for the perceptron, in the field of statistical physics based on the so-called replica method. Our present paper rigorously establishes those decades old conjectures and brings forward their algorithmic interpretation in terms of performance of the generalized approximate message-passing algorithm. Furthermore, we tightly characterize, for many learning problems, regions of parameters for which this algorithm achieves the optimal performance, and locate the associated sharp phase transitions separating learnable and non-learnable regions. We believe that this random version of GLMs can serve as a challenging benchmark for multi-purpose algorithms. This paper is divided in two parts that can be read independently: The first part (main part) presents the model and main results, discusses some applications and sketches the main ideas of the proof. The second part (supplementary informations) is much more detailed and provides more examples as well as all the proofs.

Abstract-- Human Activity Recognition (HAR) based on motion sensors has drawn a lot of attention over the last few years, since perceiving the human status enables context-aware applications to adapt their services on users' needs. However, motion sensor fusion and feature extraction have not reached their full potentials, remaining still an open issue. In this paper, we introduce PerceptionNet, a deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) that applies a late 2D convolution to multimodal time-series sensor data, in order to extract automatically efficient features for HAR. We evaluate our approach on two public available HAR datasets to demonstrate that the proposed model fuses effectively multimodal sensors and improves the performance of HAR. In particular, PerceptionNet surpasses the performance of state-of-the-art HAR methods based on: (i) features extracted from humans, (ii) deep CNNs exploiting early fusion approaches, and (iii) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), by an average accuracy of more than 3%. The proliferation of the Internet of Things (IoT) over the last few years, has contributed to the collection of huge amounts of time-series data. An IoT device with high sampling rates, such as a wearable, produces hundreds of data every second, resulting to a data explosion, considering the vast number of such devices connected over the internet. Through real-time or batch data processing, meaningful information is extracted, revealing daily patterns of individual owners or social groups.

Naive Bayes spam filters are highly susceptible to data poisoning attacks. Here, known spam sources/blacklisted IPs exploit the fact that their received emails will be treated as (ground truth) labeled spam examples, and used for classifier training (or re-training). The attacking source thus generates emails that will skew the spam model, potentially resulting in great degradation in classifier accuracy. Such attacks are successful mainly because of the poor representation power of the naive Bayes (NB) model, with only a single (component) density to represent spam (plus a possible attack). We propose a defense based on the use of a mixture of NB models. We demonstrate that the learned mixture almost completely isolates the attack in a second NB component, with the original spam component essentially unchanged by the attack. Our approach addresses both the scenario where the classifier is being re-trained in light of new data and, significantly, the more challenging scenario where the attack is embedded in the original spam training set. Even for weak attack strengths, BIC-based model order selection chooses a two-component solution, which invokes the mixture-based defense. Promising results are presented on the TREC 2005 spam corpus.

When analysing graph structure, it can be difficult to determine whether patterns found are due to chance, or due to structural aspects of the process that generated the data. Hypothesis tests are often used to support such analyses. These allow us to make statistical inferences about which null models are responsible for the data, and they can be used as a heuristic in searching for meaningful patterns. The minimum description length (MDL) principle [6, 4] allows us to build such hypothesis tests, based on efficient descriptions of the data. Broadly: we translate the regularity we are interested in into a code for the data, and if this code describes the data more efficiently than a code corresponding to the null model, by a sufficient margin, we may reject the null model. This is a frequentist approach to MDL, based on hypothesis testing. Bayesian approaches to MDL for model selection rather than model rejection are more common, but for the purposes of pattern analysis, a hypothesis testing approach provides a more natural fit with existing literature. 1 We provide a brief illustration of this principle based on the running example of analysing the size of the largest clique in a graph. We illustrate how a code can be constructed to efficiently represent graphs with large cliques, and how the description length of the data under this code can be compared to the description length under a code corresponding to a null model to show that the null model is highly unlikely to have generated the data.

We present a probabilistic modeling framework and adaptive sampling algorithm wherein unsupervised generative models are combined with black box predictive models to tackle the problem of input design. In input design, one is given one or more stochastic "oracle" predictive functions, each of which maps from the input design space (e. g., DNA sequences or images) to a distribution over a property of interest (e. g., protein fluorescence or image content). Given such stochastic oracles, the problem is to find an input that is expected to maximize one or more properties, or to achieve a specified value of one or more properties, or any combination thereof. We demonstrate experimentally that our approach substantially outperforms other recently presented methods for tackling a specific version of this problem, namely, maximization when the oracle is assumed to be deterministic and unbiased. We also demonstrate that our method can tackle more general versions of the problem.

Obtaining reliable uncertainty estimates of neural network predictions is a long standing challenge. Bayesian neural networks have been proposed as a solution, but it remains open how to specify their prior. In particular, the common practice of a standard normal prior in weight space imposes only weak regularities, causing the function posterior to possibly generalize in unforeseen ways on inputs outside of the training distribution. We propose noise contrastive priors (NCPs) to obtain reliable uncertainty estimates. The key idea is to train the model to output high uncertainty for data points outside of the training distribution. NCPs do so using an input prior, which adds noise to the inputs of the current mini batch, and an output prior, which is a wide distribution given these inputs. NCPs are compatible with any model that can output uncertainty estimates, are easy to scale, and yield reliable uncertainty estimates throughout training. Empirically, we show that NCPs prevent overfitting outside of the training distribution and result in uncertainty estimates that are useful for active learning. We demonstrate the scalability of our method on the flight delays data set, where we significantly improve upon previously published results.

Conditional Density Estimation (CDE) models deal with estimating conditional distributions. The conditions imposed on the distribution are the inputs of the model. CDE is a challenging task as there is a fundamental trade-off between model complexity, representational capacity and overfitting. In this work, we propose to extend the model's input with latent variables and use Gaussian processes (GP) to map this augmented input onto samples from the conditional distribution. Our Bayesian approach allows for the modeling of small datasets, but we also provide the machinery for it to be applied to big data using stochastic variational inference. Our approach can be used to model densities even in sparse data regions, and allows for sharing learned structure between conditions. We illustrate the effectiveness and wide-reaching applicability of our model on a variety of real-world problems, such as spatio-temporal density estimation of taxi drop-offs, non-Gaussian noise modeling, and few-shot learning on omniglot images.

Recommender systems help users find relevant items of interest, for example on e-commerce or media streaming sites. Most academic research is concerned with approaches that personalize the recommendations according to long-term user profiles. In many real-world applications, however, such long-term profiles often do not exist and recommendations therefore have to be made solely based on the observed behavior of a user during an ongoing session. Given the high practical relevance of the problem, an increased interest in this problem can be observed in recent years, leading to a number of proposals for session-based recommendation algorithms that typically aim to predict the user's immediate next actions. In this work, we present the results of an in-depth performance comparison of a number of such algorithms, using a variety of datasets and evaluation measures. Our comparison includes the most recent approaches based on recurrent neural networks like GRU4REC, factorized Markov model approaches such as FISM or FOSSIL, as well as simpler methods based, e.g., on nearest neighbor schemes. Our experiments reveal that algorithms of this latter class, despite their sometimes almost trivial nature, often perform equally well or significantly better than today's more complex approaches based on deep neural networks. Our results therefore suggest that there is substantial room for improvement regarding the development of more sophisticated session-based recommendation algorithms.