Finding the most likely path to a set of failure states is important to the analysis of safety-critical dynamic systems. While efficient solutions exist for certain classes of systems, a scalable general solution for stochastic, partially-observable, and continuous-valued systems remains challenging. Existing approaches in formal and simulation-based methods either cannot scale to large systems or are computationally inefficient. This paper presents adaptive stress testing (AST), a framework for searching a simulator for the most likely path to a failure event. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process and use reinforcement learning to optimize it. The approach is simulation-based and does not require internal knowledge of the system. As a result, the approach is very suitable for black box testing of large systems. We present formulations for both systems where the state is fully-observable and partially-observable. In the latter case, we present a modified Monte Carlo tree search algorithm that only requires access to the pseudorandom number generator of the simulator to overcome partial observability. We also present an extension of the framework, called differential adaptive stress testing (DAST), that can be used to find failures that occur in one system but not in another. This type of differential analysis is useful in applications such as regression testing, where one is concerned with finding areas of relative weakness compared to a baseline. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach on an aircraft collision avoidance application, where we stress test a prototype aircraft collision avoidance system to find high-probability scenarios of near mid-air collisions.

Towards a Near Universal Time Series Data Mining Tool: Introducing the Matrix Profile by Chin-Chia Michael Yeh Doctor of Philosophy, Graduate Program in Computer Science University of California, Riverside, September 2018 Dr. Eamonn Keogh, Chairperson The last decade has seen a flurry of research on all-pairs-similarity-search (or, self-join) for text, DNA, and a handful of other datatypes, and these systems have been applied to many diverse data mining problems. Surprisingly, however, little progress has been made on addressing this problem for time series subsequences. In this thesis, we have introduced a near universal time series data mining tool called matrix profile which solves the all-pairssimilarity-search problem and caches the output in an easy-to-access fashion. The proposed algorithm is not only parameter-free, exact and scalable, but also applicable for both single and multidimensional time series. By building time series data mining methods on top of matrix profile, many time series data mining tasks (e.g., motif discovery, discord discovery, shapelet discovery, semantic segmentation, and clustering) can be efficiently solved. Because the same matrix profile can be shared by a diverse set of time series data mining methods, matrix profile is versatile and computed-once-use-many-times data structure. We demonstrate the utility of matrix profile for many time series data mining problems, including motif discovery, discord discovery, weakly labeled time series classification, and vi representation learning on domains as diverse as seismology, entomology, music processing, bioinformatics, human activity monitoring, electrical power-demand monitoring, and medicine. We hope the matrix profile is not the end but the beginning of many more time series data mining projects.

We introduce TzK (pronounced "task"), a conditional flow-based encoder/decoder generative model, formulated in terms of maximum likelihood (ML). TzK offers efficient approximation of arbitrary data sample distributions (similar to GAN and flow-based ML), and stable training (similar to VAE and ML), while avoiding variational approximations (similar to ML). TzK exploits meta-data to facilitate a bottleneck, similar to autoencoders, thereby producing a low-dimensional representation. Unlike autoencoders, our bottleneck does not limit model expressiveness, similar to flow-based ML. Supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised learning are supported by replacing missing observations with samples from learned priors. We demonstrate TzK by jointly training on MNIST and Omniglot with minimal preprocessing, and weak supervision, with results which are comparable to state-of-the-art.

Abstract--In this paper, we consider the problem of low-rank phase retrieval whose objective is to estimate a complex low-rank matrix from magnitude-only measurements. We propose a hierarchical prior model for low-rank phase retrieval, in which a Gaussian-Wishart hierarchical prior is placed on the underlying low-rank matrix to promote the low-rankness of the matrix. Based on the proposed hierarchical model, a variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm is developed. The proposed method is less sensitive to the choice of the initialization point and works well with random initialization. Simulation results are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Transfer learning for deep neural networks is the process of first training a base network on a source dataset, and then transferring the learned features (the network's weights) to a second network to be trained on a target dataset. This idea has been shown to improve deep neural network's generalization capabilities in many computer vision tasks such as image recognition and object localization. Apart from these applications, deep Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have also recently gained popularity in the Time Series Classification (TSC) community. However, unlike for image recognition problems, transfer learning techniques have not yet been investigated thoroughly for the TSC task. This is surprising as the accuracy of deep learning models for TSC could potentially be improved if the model is fine-tuned from a pre-trained neural network instead of training it from scratch. In this paper, we fill this gap by investigating how to transfer deep CNNs for the TSC task. To evaluate the potential of transfer learning, we performed extensive experiments using the UCR archive which is the largest publicly available TSC benchmark containing 85 datasets. For each dataset in the archive, we pre-trained a model and then fine-tuned it on the other datasets resulting in 7140 different deep neural networks. These experiments revealed that transfer learning can improve or degrade the model's predictions depending on the dataset used for transfer. Therefore, in an effort to predict the best source dataset for a given target dataset, we propose a new method relying on Dynamic Time Warping to measure inter-datasets similarities. We describe how our method can guide the transfer to choose the best source dataset leading to an improvement in accuracy on 71 out of 85 datasets.

In multi-agent reinforcement learning, centralised policies can only be executed if agents have access to either the global state or an instantaneous communication channel. An alternative approach that circumvents this limitation is to use centralised training of a set of decentralised policies. However, such policies severely limit the agents' ability to coordinate. We propose multi-agent common knowledge reinforcement learning (MACKRL), which strikes a middle ground between these two extremes. Our approach is based on the insight that, even in partially observable settings, subsets of agents often have some common knowledge that they can exploit to coordinate their behaviour. Common knowledge can arise, e.g., if all agents can reliably observe things in their own field of view and know the field of view of other agents. Using this additional information, it is possible to find a centralised policy that conditions only on agents' common knowledge and that can be executed in a decentralised fashion. A resulting challenge is then to determine at what level agents should coordinate. While the common knowledge shared among all agents may not contain much valuable information, there may be subgroups of agents that share common knowledge useful for coordination. MACKRL addresses this challenge using a hierarchical approach: at each level, a controller can either select a joint action for the agents in a given subgroup, or propose a partition of the agents into smaller subgroups whose actions are then selected by controllers at the next level. While action selection involves sampling hierarchically, learning updates are based on the probability of the joint action, calculated by marginalising across the possible decisions of the hierarchy. We show promising results on both a proof-of-concept matrix game and a multi-agent version of StarCraft II Micromanagement.

When observing the actions of others, humans carry out inferences about why the others acted as they did, and what this implies about their view of the world. Humans also use the fact that their actions will be interpreted in this manner when observed by others, allowing them to act informatively and thereby communicate efficiently with others. Although learning algorithms have recently achieved superhuman performance in a number of two-player, zero-sum games, scalable multi-agent reinforcement learning algorithms that can discover effective strategies and conventions in complex, partially observable settings have proven elusive. We present the Bayesian action decoder (BAD), a new multi-agent learning method that uses an approximate Bayesian update to obtain a public belief that conditions on the actions taken by all agents in the environment. Together with the public belief, this Bayesian update effectively defines a new Markov decision process, the public belief MDP, in which the action space consists of deterministic partial policies, parameterised by deep neural networks, that can be sampled for a given public state. It exploits the fact that an agent acting only on this public belief state can still learn to use its private information if the action space is augmented to be over partial policies mapping private information into environment actions. The Bayesian update is also closely related to the theory of mind reasoning that humans carry out when observing others' actions. We first validate BAD on a proof-of-principle two-step matrix game, where it outperforms traditional policy gradient methods. We then evaluate BAD on the challenging, cooperative partial-information card game Hanabi, where in the two-player setting the method surpasses all previously published learning and hand-coded approaches.

The digital telecommunications receiver is an important context for inference methodology, the key objective being to minimize the expected loss function in recovering the transmitted information. For that criterion, the optimal decision is the Bayesian minimum-risk estimator. However, the computational load of the Bayesian estimator is often prohibitive and, hence, efficient computational schemes are required. The design of novel schemes, striking new balances between accuracy and computational load, is the primary concern of this thesis. Two popular techniques, one exact and one approximate, will be studied. The exact scheme is a recursive one, namely the generalized distributive law (GDL), whose purpose is to distribute all operators across the conditionally independent (CI) factors of the joint model, so as to reduce the total number of operators required. In a novel theorem derived in this thesis, GDL, if applicable, will be shown to guarantee such a reduction in all cases. An associated lemma also quantifies this reduction. For practical use, two novel algorithms, namely the no-longer-needed (NLN) algorithm and the generalized form of the Markovian Forward-Backward (FB) algorithm, recursively factorizes and computes the CI factors of an arbitrary model, respectively. The approximate scheme is an iterative one, namely the Variational Bayes (VB) approximation, whose purpose is to find the independent (i.e. zero-order Markov) model closest to the true joint model in the minimum Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) sense. Despite being computationally efficient, this naive mean field approximation confers only modest performance for highly correlated models. A novel approximation, namely Transformed Variational Bayes (TVB), will be designed in the thesis in order to relax the zero-order constraint in the VB approximation, further reducing the KLD of the optimal approximation.

It has become commonplace to assert that autonomous agents will have to be built to follow human rules of behavior-social norms and laws. But human laws and norms are complex and culturally varied systems; in many cases agents will have to learn the rules. This requires autonomous agents to have models of how human rule systems work so that they can make reliable predictions about rules. In this paper we contribute to the building of such models by analyzing an overlooked distinction between important rules and what we call silly rules --rules with no discernible direct impact on welfare. We show that silly rules render a normative system both more robust and more adaptable in response to shocks to perceived stability. They make normativity more legible for humans, and can increase legibility for AI systems as well. For AI systems to integrate into human normative systems, we suggest, it may be important for them to have models that include representations of silly rules.

Heteroscedastic regression which considers varying noises across input domain has many applications in fields like machine learning and statistics. Here we focus on the heteroscedastic Gaussian process (HGP) regression which integrates the latent function and the noise together in a unified non-parametric Bayesian framework. Though showing flexible and powerful performance, HGP suffers from the cubic time complexity, which strictly limits its application to big data. To improve the scalability of HGP, we first develop a variational sparse inference algorithm, named VSHGP, to handle large-scale datasets. Furthermore, to enhance the model capability of capturing quick-varying features, we follow the Bayesian committee machine (BCM) formalism to distribute the learning over multiple local VSHGP experts with many inducing points, and aggregate their predictive distributions. The proposed distributed VSHGP (DVSHGP) (i) enables large-scale HGP regression via distributed computations, and (ii) achieves high model capability via localized experts and many inducing points. Superiority of the proposed DVSHGP as compared to existing large-scale heteroscedastic/homoscedastic GPs is then verified using a synthetic dataset and three real-world datasets.