Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual predictions, they cannot provide users with an ability to inspect a model as a complete entity. In this work, we propose a novel technical approach that augments a Bayesian non-parametric regression mixture model with multiple elastic nets. Using the enhanced mixture model, we can extract generalizable insights for a target model through a global approximation. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we evaluate it on different ML models in the context of image recognition. The empirical results indicate that our proposed approach not only outperforms the state-of-the-art techniques in explaining individual decisions but also provides users with an ability to discover the vulnerabilities of the target ML models.

This paper addresses the mapping problem. Using a conjugate prior form, we derive the exact theoretical batch multi-object posterior density of the map given a set of measurements. The landmarks in the map are modeled as extended objects, and the measurements are described as a Poisson process, conditioned on the map. We use a Poisson process prior on the map and prove that the posterior distribution is a hybrid Poisson, multi-Bernoulli mixture distribution. We devise a Gibbs sampling algorithm to sample from the batch multi-object posterior. The proposed method can handle uncertainties in the data associations and the cardinality of the set of landmarks, and is parallelizable, making it suitable for large-scale problems. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated on synthetic data and is shown to outperform a state-of-the-art method.

In this paper, we propose an effective TH resholding method based on ORder S tatistic, called THORS, to convert an arbitrary scoring-type classifier, which can induce a continuous cumulative distribution function of the score, into a cost-sensitive one. The procedure, uses order statistic to find an optimal threshold for classification, requiring almost no knowledge of classifiers itself. Unlike common data-driven methods, we analytically show that THORS has theoretical guaranteed performance, theoretical bounds for the costs and lower time complexity. Coupled with empirical results on several real-world data sets, we argue that THORS is the preferred cost-sensitive technique. Key words: Classification; Cost-sensitive learning; Imbalanced data set; Statistical learning; Threshold adjusting.

An intelligent agent performs actions in order to achieve its goals. Such actions can either be externally directed, such as opening a door, or internally directed, such as writing data to a memory location or strengthening a synaptic connection. Some internal actions, to which we refer as computations, potentially help the agent choose better actions. Considering that (external) actions and computations might draw upon the same resources, such as time and energy, deciding when to act or compute, as well as what to compute, are detrimental to the performance of an agent. In an environment that provides rewards depending on an agent's behavior, an action's value is typically defined as the sum of expected long-term rewards succeeding the action (itself a complex quantity that depends on what the agent goes on to do after the action in question). However, defining the value of a computation is not as straightforward, as computations are only valuable in a higher order way, through the alteration of actions. This thesis offers a principled way of computing the value of a computation in a planning setting formalized as a Markov decision process. We present two different definitions of computation values: static and dynamic. They address two extreme cases of the computation budget: affording calculation of zero or infinitely many steps in the future. We show that these values have desirable properties, such as temporal consistency and asymptotic convergence. Furthermore, we propose methods for efficiently computing and approximating the static and dynamic computation values. We describe a sense in which the policies that greedily maximize these values can be optimal. We utilize these principles to construct Monte Carlo tree search algorithms that outperform most of the state-of-the-art in terms of finding higher quality actions given the same simulation resources.

This research aims to identify how Bitcoin-related news publications and online discourse are expressed in Bitcoin exchange movements of price and volume. Being inherently digital, all Bitcoin-related fundamental data (from exchanges, as well as transactional data directly from the blockchain) is available online, something that is not true for traditional businesses or currencies traded on exchanges. This makes Bitcoin an interesting subject for such research, as it enables the mapping of sentiment to fundamental events that might otherwise be inaccessible. Furthermore, Bitcoin discussion largely takes place on online forums and chat channels. In stock trading, the value of sentiment data in trading decisions has been demonstrated numerous times [1] [2] [3], and this research aims to determine whether there is value in such data for Bitcoin trading models. To achieve this, data over the year 2015 has been collected from Bitcointalk.org, (the biggest Bitcoin forum in post volume), established news sources such as Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, the complete /r/btc and /r/Bitcoin subreddits, and the bitcoin-otc and bitcoin-dev IRC channels. By analyzing this data on sentiment and volume, we find weak to moderate correlations between forum, news, and Reddit sentiment and movements in price and volume from 1 to 5 days after the sentiment was expressed. A Granger causality test confirms the predictive causality of the sentiment on the daily percentage price and volume movements, and at the same time underscores the predictive causality of market movements on sentiment expressions in online communities

State aggregation is a model reduction method rooted in control theory and reinforcement learning. It reduces the complexity of engineering systems by mapping the system's states into a small number of meta-states. In this paper, we study the unsupervised estimation of unknown state aggregation structures based on Markov trajectories. We formulate the state aggregation of Markov processes into a nonnegative factorization model, where left and right factor matrices correspond to aggregation and disaggregation distributions respectively. By leveraging techniques developed in the context of topic modeling, we propose an efficient polynomial-time algorithm for computing the estimated state aggregation model. Under some "anchor state" assumption, we show that one can reliably recover the state aggregation structure from sample transitions with high probability. Sharp divergence error bounds are proved for the estimated aggregation and disaggregation distributions, and experiments with Manhattan traffic data are provided.

Recent advances in deep learning have achieved impressive gains in classification accuracy on a variety of types of data, including images and text. Despite these gains, however, concerns have been raised about the interpretability of these models, as well as issues related to calibration and robustness. In this paper we propose a simple way to modify any conventional deep architecture to automatically provide more transparent explanations for classification decisions, as well as an intuitive notion of the credibility of each prediction. Specifically, we draw on ideas from nonparametric kernel regression, and propose to predict labels based on a weighted sum of training instances, where the weights are determined by distance in a learned instance-embedding space. Working within the framework of conformal methods, we propose a new measure of nonconformity suggested by our model, and experimentally validate the accompanying theoretical expectations, demonstrating improved transparency, controlled error rates, and robustness to out-of-domain data, without compromising on accuracy or calibration.

Latent variable models have been widely applied for the analysis and visualization of large datasets. In the case of sequential data, closed-form inference is possible when the transition and observation functions are linear. However, approximate inference techniques are usually necessary when dealing with nonlinear dynamics and observation functions. Here, we propose a novel variational inference framework for the explicit modeling of time series, Variational Inference for Nonlinear Dynamics (VIND), that is able to uncover nonlinear observation and transition functions from sequential data. The framework includes a structured approximate posterior, and an algorithm that relies on the fixed-point iteration method to find the best estimate for latent trajectories. We apply the method to several datasets and show that it is able to accurately infer the underlying dynamics of these systems, in some cases substantially outperforming state-of-the-art methods.

In many structured prediction problems, complex relationships between variables are compactly defined using graphical structures. The most prevalent graphical prediction methods---probabilistic graphical models and large margin methods---have their own distinct strengths but also possess significant drawbacks. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are Fisher consistent, but they do not permit integration of customized loss metrics into their learning process. Large-margin models, such as structured support vector machines (SSVMs), have the flexibility to incorporate customized loss metrics, but lack Fisher consistency guarantees. We present adversarial graphical models (AGM), a distributionally robust approach for constructing a predictor that performs robustly for a class of data distributions defined using a graphical structure. Our approach enjoys both the flexibility of incorporating customized loss metrics into its design as well as the statistical guarantee of Fisher consistency. We present exact learning and prediction algorithms for AGM with time complexity similar to existing graphical models and show the practical benefits of our approach with experiments.

Many hallmarks of human intelligence, such as generalizing from limited experience, abstract reasoning and planning, analogical reasoning, creative problem solving, and capacity for language require the ability to consolidate experience into concepts, which act as basic building blocks of understanding and reasoning. We present a framework that defines a concept by an energy function over events in the environment, as well as an attention mask over entities participating in the event. Given few demonstration events, our method uses inference-time optimization procedure to generate events involving similar concepts or identify entities involved in the concept. We evaluate our framework on learning visual, quantitative, relational, temporal concepts from demonstration events in an unsupervised manner. Our approach is able to successfully generate and identify concepts in a few-shot setting and resulting learned concepts can be reused across environments. Example videos of our results are available at sites.google.com/site/energyconceptmodels