Non-intrusive load monitoring or energy disaggregation involves estimating the power consumption of individual appliances from measurements of the total power consumption of a home. Deep neural networks have been shown to be effective for energy disaggregation. In this work, we present a deep neural network architecture which achieves state of the art disaggregation performance with substantially improved computational efficiency, reducing model training time by a factor of 32 and prediction time by a factor of 43. This improvement in efficiency could be especially useful for applications where disaggregation must be performed in home on lower power devices, or for research experiments which involve training a large number of models.

Phylogeny is the field of modelling the temporal discrete dynamics of speciation. Complex models can nowadays be studied using the Approximate Bayesian Computation approach which avoids likelihood calculations. The field's progression is hampered by the lack of robust software to estimate the numerous parameters of the speciation process. In this work we present an R package, pcmabc, based on Approximate Bayesian Computations, that implements three novel phylogenetic algorithms for trait-dependent speciation modelling. Our phylogenetic comparative methodology takes into account both the simulated traits and phylogeny, attempting to estimate the parameters of the processes generating the phenotype and the trait. The user is not restricted to a predefined set of models and can specify a variety of evolutionary and branching models. We illustrate the software with a simulation-reestimation study focused around the branching Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, where the branching rate depends non-linearly on the value of the driving Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Included in this work is a tutorial on how to use the software.

Robots are increasingly used to carry out critical missions in extreme environments that are hazardous for humans. This requires a high degree of operational autonomy under uncertain conditions, and poses new challenges for assuring the robot's safety and reliability. In this paper, we develop a framework for probabilistic model checking on a layered Markov model to verify the safety and reliability requirements of such robots, both at pre-mission stage and during runtime. Two novel estimators based on conservative Bayesian inference and imprecise probability model with sets of priors are introduced to learn the unknown transition parameters from operational data. We demonstrate our approach using data from a real-world deployment of unmanned underwater vehicles in extreme environments.

Tasks such as social network analysis, human behavior recognition, or modeling biochemical reactions, can be solved elegantly by using the probabilistic inference framework. However, standard probabilistic inference algorithms work at a propositional level, and thus cannot capture the symmetries and redundancies that are present in these tasks. Algorithms that exploit those symmetries have been devised in different research fields, for example by the lifted inference-, multiple object tracking-, and modeling and simulation-communities. The common idea, that we call state space abstraction, is to perform inference over compact representations of sets of symmetric states. Although they are concerned with a similar topic, the relationship between these approaches has not been investigated systematically. This survey provides the following contributions. We perform a systematic literature review to outline the state of the art in probabilistic inference methods exploiting symmetries. From an initial set of more than 4,000 papers, we identify 116 relevant papers. Furthermore, we provide new high-level categories that classify the approaches, based on common properties of the approaches. The research areas underlying each of the categories are introduced concisely. Researchers from different fields that are confronted with a state space explosion problem in a probabilistic system can use this classification to identify possible solutions. Finally, based on this conceptualization, we identify potentials for future research, as some relevant application domains are not addressed by current approaches.

We derive the fast convergence rates of a deep neural network (DNN) classifier with the rectified linear unit (ReLU) activation function learned using the hinge loss. We consider three cases for a true model: (1) a smooth decision boundary, (2) smooth conditional class probability, and (3) the margin condition (i.e., the probability of inputs near the decision boundary is small). We show that the DNN classifier learned using the hinge loss achieves fast rate convergences for all three cases provided that the architecture (i.e., the number of layers, number of nodes and sparsity). is carefully selected. An important implication is that DNN architectures are very flexible for use in various cases without much modification. In addition, we consider a DNN classifier learned by minimizing the cross-entropy, and show that the DNN classifier achieves a fast convergence rate under the condition that the conditional class probabilities of most data are sufficiently close to either 1 or zero. This assumption is not unusual for image recognition because human beings are extremely good at recognizing most images. To confirm our theoretical explanation, we present the results of a small numerical study conducted to compare the hinge loss and cross-entropy.

Traditional model-based RL relies on hand-specified or learned models of transition dynamics of the environment. These methods are sample efficient and facilitate learning in the real world but fail to generalize to subtle variations in the underlying dynamics, e.g., due to differences in mass, friction, or actuators across robotic agents or across time. We propose using variational inference to learn an explicit latent representation of unknown environment properties that accelerates learning and facilitates generalization on novel environments at test time. We use Online Bayesian Inference of these learned latents to rapidly adapt online to changes in environments without retaining large replay buffers of recent data. Combined with a neural network ensemble that models dynamics and captures uncertainty over dynamics, our approach demonstrates positive transfer during training and online adaptation on the continuous control task HalfCheetah.

Faces play a magnificent role in human robot interaction, as they do in our daily life. The inherent ability of the human mind facilitates us to recognize a person by exploiting various challenges such as bad illumination, occlusions, pose variation etc. which are involved in face recognition. But it is a very complex task in nature to identify a human face by humanoid robots. The recent literatures on face biometric recognition are extremely rich in its application on structured environment for solving human identification problem. But the application of face biometric on mobile robotics is limited for its inability to produce accurate identification in uneven circumstances. The existing face recognition problem has been tackled with our proposed component based fragmented face recognition framework. The proposed framework uses only a subset of the full face such as eyes, nose and mouth to recognize a person. It's less searching cost, encouraging accuracy and ability to handle various challenges of face recognition offers its applicability on humanoid robots. The second problem in face recognition is the face spoofing, in which a face recognition system is not able to distinguish between a person and an imposter (photo/video of the genuine user). The problem will become more detrimental when robots are used as an authenticator. A depth analysis method has been investigated in our research work to test the liveness of imposters to discriminate them from the legitimate users. The implication of the previous earned techniques has been used with respect to criminal identification with NAO robot. An eyewitness can interact with NAO through a user interface. NAO asks several questions about the suspect, such as age, height, her/his facial shape and size etc., and then making a guess about her/his face.

Deep neural networks(NNs) have achieved impressive performance, often exceed human performance on many computer vision tasks. However, one of the most challenging issues that still remains is that NNs are overconfident in their predictions, which can be very harmful when this arises in safety critical applications. In this paper, we show that predictive uncertainty can be efficiently estimated when we incorporate the concept of gradients uncertainty into posterior sampling. The proposed method is tested on two different datasets, MNIST for in-distribution confusing examples and notMNIST for out-of-distribution data. We show that our method is able to efficiently represent predictive uncertainty on both datasets.

As machine learning models continue to increase in complexity, collecting large hand-labeled training sets has become one of the biggest roadblocks in practice. Instead, weaker forms of supervision that provide noisier but cheaper labels are often used. However, these weak supervision sources have diverse and unknown accuracies, may output correlated labels, and may label different tasks or apply at different levels of granularity. We propose a framework for integrating and modeling such weak supervision sources by viewing them as labeling different related sub-tasks of a problem, which we refer to as the multi-task weak supervision setting. We show that by solving a matrix completion-style problem, we can recover the accuracies of these multi-task sources given their dependency structure, but without any labeled data, leading to higher-quality supervision for training an end model. Theoretically, we show that the generalization error of models trained with this approach improves with the number of unlabeled data points, and characterize the scaling with respect to the task and dependency structures. On three fine-grained classification problems, we show that our approach leads to average gains of 20.2 points in accuracy over a traditional supervised approach, 6.8 points over a majority vote baseline, and 4.1 points over a previously proposed weak supervision method that models tasks separately.

Mathematical Theory of Evidence (MTE), a foundation for reasoning under partial ignorance, is blamed to leave frequencies outside (or aside of) its framework. The seriousness of this accusation is obvious: no experiment may be run to compare the performance of MTE-based models of real world processes against real world data. In this paper we consider this problem from the point of view of conditioning in the MTE. We describe the class of belief functions for which marginal consistency with observed frequencies may be achieved and conditional belief functions are proper belief functions,%\ and deal with implications for (marginal) approximation of general belief functions by this class of belief functions and for inference models in MTE.