We address the problem of regret minimization in logistic contextual bandits, where a learner decides among sequential actions or arms given their respective contexts to maximize binary rewards. Using a fast inference procedure with Polya-Gamma distributed augmentation variables, we propose an improved version of Thompson Sampling, a Bayesian formulation of contextual bandits with near-optimal performance. Our approach, Polya-Gamma augmented Thompson Sampling (PG-TS), achieves state-of-the-art performance on simulated and real data. PG-TS explores the action space efficiently and exploits high-reward arms, quickly converging to solutions of low regret. Its explicit estimation of the posterior distribution of the context feature covariance leads to substantial empirical gains over approximate approaches. PG-TS is the first approach to demonstrate the benefits of Polya-Gamma augmentation in bandits and to propose an efficient Gibbs sampler for approximating the analytically unsolvable integral of logistic contextual bandits.

Understanding and interpreting how machine learning (ML) models make decisions have been a big challenge. While recent research has proposed various technical approaches to provide some clues as to how an ML model makes individual predictions, they cannot provide users with an ability to inspect a model as a complete entity. In this work, we propose a novel technical approach that augments a Bayesian non-parametric regression mixture model with multiple elastic nets. Using the enhanced mixture model, we can extract generalizable insights for a target model through a global approximation. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we evaluate it on different ML models in the context of image recognition. The empirical results indicate that our proposed approach not only outperforms the state-of-the-art techniques in explaining individual decisions but also provides users with an ability to discover the vulnerabilities of the target ML models.

The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model can be detrimental to the test set performance of both the amortized posterior approximator and, more importantly, the generative density estimator. In this paper, we leverage the fact that VAEs rely on amortized inference and propose techniques for amortized inference regularization (AIR) that control the smoothness of the inference model. We demonstrate that, by applying AIR, it is possible to improve VAE generalization on both inference and generative performance. Our paper challenges the belief that amortized inference is simply a mechanism for approximating maximum likelihood training and illustrates that regularization of the amortization family provides a new direction for understanding and improving generalization in VAEs.

A central problem in dynamical system modeling is state discovery--that is, finding a compact summary of the past that captures the information needed to predict the future. Predictive State Representations (PSRs) enable clever spectral methods for state discovery; however, while consistent in the limit of infinite data, these methods often suffer from poor performance in the low data regime. In this paper we develop a novel algorithm for incorporating domain knowledge, in the form of an imperfect state representation, as side information to speed spectral learning for PSRs. We prove theoretical results characterizing the relevance of a user-provided state representation, and design spectral algorithms that can take advantage of a relevant representation. Our algorithm utilizes principal angles to extract the relevant components of the representation, and is robust to misspecification. Empiricalevaluation on synthetic HMMs, an aircraft identification domain, and a gene splice dataset shows that, even with weak domain knowledge, the algorithm can significantly outperform standard PSR learning.

Natural scenes contain many layers of part-subpart structure, and distributions over them are thus naturally represented by stochastic image grammars, with one production per decomposition of a part. Unfortunately, in contrast to language grammars, where the number of possible split points for a production $A \rightarrow BC$ is linear in the length of $A$, in an image there are an exponential number of ways to split a region into subregions. This makes parsing intractable and requires image grammars to be severely restricted in practice, for example by allowing only rectangular regions. In this paper, we address this problem by associating with each production a submodular Markov random field whose labels are the subparts and whose labeling segments the current object into these subparts. We call the result a submodular field grammar (SFG). Finding the MAP split of a region into subregions is now tractable, and by exploiting this we develop an efficient approximate algorithm for MAP parsing of images with SFGs. Empirically, we present promising improvements in accuracy when using SFGs for scene understanding, and show exponential improvements in inference time compared to traditional methods, while returning comparable minima.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

We propose a new approach, called cooperative neural networks (CoNN), which use a set of cooperatively trained neural networks to capture latent representations that exploit prior given independence structure. The model is more flexible than traditional graphical models based on exponential family distributions, but incorporates more domain specific prior structure than traditional deep networks or variational autoencoders. The framework is very general and can be used to exploit the independence structure of any graphical model. We illustrate the technique by showing that we can transfer the independence structure of the popular Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to a cooperative neural network, CoNN-sLDA. Empirical evaluation of CoNN-sLDA on supervised text classification tasks demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of prior independence structure can be realized in practice - we demonstrate a 23 percent reduction in error on the challenging MultiSent data set compared to state-of-the-art.

Boltzmann machines (BMs) are appealing candidates for powerful priors in variational autoencoders (VAEs), as they are capable of capturing nontrivial and multi-modal distributions over discrete variables. However, non-differentiability of the discrete units prohibits using the reparameterization trick, essential for low-noise back propagation. The Gumbel trick resolves this problem in a consistent way by relaxing the variables and distributions, but it is incompatible with BM priors. Here, we propose the GumBolt, a model that extends the Gumbel trick to BM priors in VAEs. GumBolt is significantly simpler than the recently proposed methods with BM prior and outperforms them by a considerable margin. It achieves state-of-the-art performance on permutation invariant MNIST and OMNIGLOT datasets in the scope of models with only discrete latent variables. Moreover, the performance can be further improved by allowing multi-sampled (importance-weighted) estimation of log-likelihood in training, which was not possible with previous models.

We propose a deep generative Markov State Model (DeepGenMSM) learning framework for inference of metastable dynamical systems and prediction of trajectories. After unsupervised training on time series data, the model contains (i) a probabilistic encoder that maps from high-dimensional configuration space to a small-sized vector indicating the membership to metastable (long-lived) states, (ii) a Markov chain that governs the transitions between metastable states and facilitates analysis of the long-time dynamics, and (iii) a generative part that samples the conditional distribution of configurations in the next time step. The model can be operated in a recursive fashion to generate trajectories to predict the system evolution from a defined starting state and propose new configurations. The DeepGenMSM is demonstrated to provide accurate estimates of the long-time kinetics and generate valid distributions for molecular dynamics (MD) benchmark systems. Remarkably, we show that DeepGenMSMs are able to make long time-steps in molecular configuration space and generate physically realistic structures in regions that were not seen in training data.

Deep latent variable models (DLVMs) combine the approximation abilities of deep neural networks and the statistical foundations of generative models. Variational methods are commonly used for inference; however, the exact likelihood of these models has been largely overlooked. The purpose of this work is to study the general properties of this quantity and to show how they can be leveraged in practice. We focus on important inferential problems that rely on the likelihood: estimation and missing data imputation. First, we investigate maximum likelihood estimation for DLVMs: in particular, we show that most unconstrained models used for continuous data have an unbounded likelihood function. This problematic behaviour is demonstrated to be a source of mode collapse. We also show how to ensure the existence of maximum likelihood estimates, and draw useful connections with nonparametric mixture models. Finally, we describe an algorithm for missing data imputation using the exact conditional likelihood of a DLVM. On several data sets, our algorithm consistently and significantly outperforms the usual imputation scheme used for DLVMs.