Decision trees and random forest remain highly competitive for classification on medium-sized, standard datasets due to their robustness, minimal preprocessing requirements, and interpretability. However, a single tree suffers from high estimation variance, while large ensembles reduce this variance at the cost of substantial computational overhead and diminished interpretability. In this paper, we propose Decision Tree Embedding (DTE), a fast and effective method that leverages the leaf partitions of a trained classification tree to construct an interpretable feature representation. By using the sample means within each leaf region as anchor points, DTE maps inputs into an embedding space defined by the tree's partition structure, effectively circumventing the high variance inherent in decision-tree splitting rules. We further introduce an ensemble extension based on additional bootstrap trees, and pair the resulting embedding with linear discriminant analysis for classification. We establish several population-level theoretical properties of DTE, including its preservation of conditional density under mild conditions and a characterization of the resulting classification error. Empirical studies on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that DTE strikes a strong balance between accuracy and computational efficiency, outperforming or matching random forest and shallow neural networks while requiring only a fraction of their training time in most cases. Overall, the proposed DTE method can be viewed either as a scalable decision tree classifier that improves upon standard split rules, or as a neural network model whose weights are learned from tree-derived anchor points, achieving an intriguing integration of both paradigms.

Learning the structure of a Bayesian network from decentralized data poses two major challenges: (i) ensuring rigorous privacy guarantees for participants, and (ii) avoiding communication costs that scale poorly with dimensionality. In this work, we introduce Fed-Sparse-BNSL, a novel federated method for learning linear Gaussian Bayesian network structures that addresses both challenges. By combining differential privacy with greedy updates that target only a few relevant edges per participant, Fed-Sparse-BNSL efficiently uses the privacy budget while keeping communication costs low. Our careful algorithmic design preserves model identifiability and enables accurate structure estimation. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets demonstrate that Fed-Sparse-BNSL achieves utility close to non-private baselines while offering substantially stronger privacy and communication efficiency.

Discrete event systems are present both in observations of nature, socio economical sciences, and industrial systems. Standard analysis approaches do not usually exploit their dual event / state nature: signals are either modeled as transition event sequences, emphasizing event order alignment, or as categorical or ordinal state timeseries, usually resampled a distorting and costly operation as the observation period and number of events grow. In this work we define state transition event timeseries (STE-ts) and propose a new Selective Temporal Hamming distance (STH) leveraging both transition time and duration-in-state, avoiding costly and distorting resampling on large databases. STH generalizes both resampled Hamming and Jaccard metrics with better precision and computation time, and an ability to focus on multiple states of interest. We validate these benefits on simulated and real-world datasets.

Foundation models, and in particular large language models, can generate highly informative responses, prompting growing interest in using these ''synthetic'' outputs as data in empirical research and decision-making. This paper introduces the idea of a foundation prior, which shows that model-generated outputs are not as real observations, but draws from the foundation prior induced prior predictive distribution. As such synthetic data reflects both the model's learned patterns and the user's subjective priors, expectations, and biases. We model the subjectivity of the generative process by making explicit the dependence of synthetic outputs on the user's anticipated data distribution, the prompt-engineering process, and the trust placed in the foundation model. We derive the foundation prior as an exponential-tilted, generalized Bayesian update of the user's primitive prior, where a trust parameter governs the weight assigned to synthetic data. We then show how synthetic data and the associated foundation prior can be incorporated into standard statistical and econometric workflows, and discuss their use in applications such as refining complex models, informing latent constructs, guiding experimental design, and augmenting random-coefficient and partially linear specifications. By treating generative outputs as structured, explicitly subjective priors rather than as empirical observations, the framework offers a principled way to harness foundation models in empirical work while avoiding the conflation of synthetic ''facts'' with real data.

We introduce Smart Bayes, a new classification framework that bridges generative and discriminative modeling by integrating likelihood-ratio-based generative features into a logistic-regression-style discriminative classifier. From the generative perspective, Smart Bayes relaxes the fixed unit weights of Naive Bayes by allowing data-driven coefficients on density-ratio features. From a discriminative perspective, it constructs transformed inputs as marginal log-density ratios that explicitly quantify how much more likely each feature value is under one class than another, thereby providing predictors with stronger class separation than the raw covariates. To support this framework, we develop a spline-based estimator for univariate log-density ratios that is flexible, robust, and computationally efficient. Through extensive simulations and real-data studies, Smart Bayes often outperforms both logistic regression and Naive Bayes. Our results highlight the potential of hybrid approaches that exploit generative structure to enhance discriminative performance.

Differential privacy is increasingly formalized through the lens of hypothesis testing via the robust and interpretable $f$-DP framework, where privacy guarantees are encoded by a baseline Blackwell trade-off function $f_{\infty} = T(P_{\infty}, Q_{\infty})$ involving a pair of distributions $(P_{\infty}, Q_{\infty})$. The problem of choosing the right privacy metric in practice leads to a central question: what is a statistically appropriate baseline $f_{\infty}$ given some prior modeling assumptions? The special case of Gaussian differential privacy (GDP) showed that, under compositions of nearly perfect mechanisms, these trade-off functions exhibit a central limit behavior with a Gaussian limit experiment. Inspired by Le Cam's theory of limits of statistical experiments, we answer this question in full generality in an infinitely divisible setting. We show that suitable composition experiments $(P_n^{\otimes n}, Q_n^{\otimes n})$ converge to a binary limit experiment $(P_{\infty}, Q_{\infty})$ whose log-likelihood ratio $L = \log(dQ_{\infty} / dP_{\infty})$ is infinitely divisible under $P_{\infty}$. Thus any limiting trade-off function $f_{\infty}$ is determined by an infinitely divisible law $P_{\infty}$, characterized by its Levy--Khintchine triplet, and its Esscher tilt defined by $dQ_{\infty}(x) = e^{x} dP_{\infty}(x)$. This characterizes all limiting baseline trade-off functions $f_{\infty}$ arising from compositions of nearly perfect differentially private mechanisms. Our framework recovers GDP as the purely Gaussian case and yields explicit non-Gaussian limits, including Poisson examples. It also positively resolves the empirical $s^2 = 2k$ phenomenon observed in the GDP paper and provides an optimal mechanism for count statistics achieving asymmetric Poisson differential privacy.

We study the problem of learning disentangled signals from data using non-linear Independent Component Analysis (ICA). Motivated by advances in self-supervised learning, we propose to learn self-sufficient signals: A recovered signal should be able to reconstruct a missing value of its own from all remaining components without relying on any other signals. We formulate this problem as the minimization of a conditional KL divergence. Compared to traditional maximum likelihood estimation, our algorithm is prior-free and likelihood-free, meaning that we do not need to impose any prior on the original signals or any observational model, which often restricts the model's flexibility. To tackle the KL divergence minimization problem, we propose a sequential algorithm that reduces the KL divergence and learns an optimal de-mixing flow model at each iteration. This approach completely avoids the unstable adversarial training, a common issue in minimizing the KL divergence. Experiments on toy and real-world datasets show the effectiveness of our method.

The Influence Maximization (IM) problem aims to select a set of seed nodes within a given budget to maximize the spread of influence in a social network. However, real-world social networks have several structural inequalities, such as dominant majority groups and underrepresented minority groups. If these inequalities are not considered while designing IM algorithms, the outcomes might be biased, disproportionately benefiting majority groups while marginalizing minorities. In this work, we address this gap by designing a fairness-aware IM method using Reinforcement Learning (RL) that ensures equitable influence outreach across all communities, regardless of protected attributes. Fairness is incorporated using a maximin fairness objective, which prioritizes improving the outreach of the least-influenced group, pushing the solution toward an equitable influence distribution. We propose a novel fairness-aware deep RL method, called DQ4FairIM, that maximizes the expected number of influenced nodes by learning an RL policy. The learnt policy ensures that minority groups formulate the IM problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and use deep Q-learning, combined with the Structure2Vec network embedding, earning together with Structure2Vec network embedding to solve the MDP. We perform extensive experiments on synthetic benchmarks and real-world networks to compare our method with fairness-agnostic and fairness-aware baselines. The results show that our method achieves a higher level of fairness while maintaining a better fairness-performance trade-off than baselines. Additionally, our approach learns effective seeding policies that generalize across problem instances without retraining, such as varying the network size or the number of seed nodes.

A critical challenge for reinforcement learning (RL) is making decisions based on incomplete and noisy observations, especially in perturbed and partially observable Markov decision processes (P$^2$OMDPs). Existing methods fail to mitigate perturbations while addressing partial observability. We propose \textit{Causal State Representation under Asynchronous Diffusion Model (CaDiff)}, a framework that enhances any RL algorithm by uncovering the underlying causal structure of P$^2$OMDPs. This is achieved by incorporating a novel asynchronous diffusion model (ADM) and a new bisimulation metric. ADM enables forward and reverse processes with different numbers of steps, thus interpreting the perturbation of P$^2$OMDP as part of the noise suppressed through diffusion. The bisimulation metric quantifies the similarity between partially observable environments and their causal counterparts. Moreover, we establish the theoretical guarantee of CaDiff by deriving an upper bound for the value function approximation errors between perturbed observations and denoised causal states, reflecting a principled trade-off between approximation errors of reward and transition-model. Experiments on Roboschool tasks show that CaDiff enhances returns by at least 14.18\% compared to baselines. CaDiff is the first framework that approximates causal states using diffusion models with both theoretical rigor and practicality.

Many tasks require mapping continuous input data (e.g. images) to discrete task outputs (e.g. class labels). Yet, how neural networks learn to perform such discrete computations on continuous data manifolds remains poorly understood. Here, we show that signatures of such computations emerge in the representational geometry of neural networks as they learn. By analysing the Riemannian pullback metric across layers of a neural network, we find that network computation can be decomposed into two functions: discretising continuous input features and performing logical operations on these discretised variables. Furthermore, we demonstrate how different learning regimes (rich vs. lazy) have contrasting metric and curvature structures, affecting the ability of the networks to generalise to unseen inputs. Overall, our work provides a geometric framework for understanding how neural networks learn to perform discrete computations on continuous manifolds.