Despite the recent popularity of deep generative state space models, few comparisons have been made between network architectures and the inference steps of the Bayesian filtering framework -- with most models simultaneously approximating both state transition and update steps with a single recurrent neural network (RNN). In this paper, we introduce the Recurrent Neural Filter (RNF), a novel recurrent variational autoencoder architecture that learns distinct representations for each Bayesian filtering step, captured by a series of encoders and decoders. Testing this on three real-world time series datasets, we demonstrate that decoupling representations not only improves the accuracy of one-step-ahead forecasts while providing realistic uncertainty estimates, but also facilitates multistep prediction through the separation of encoder stages.

Wireless Internet access has brought legions of heterogeneous applications all sharing the same resources. However, current wireless edge networks that cater to worst or average case performance lack the agility to best serve these diverse sessions. Simultaneously, software reconfigurable infrastructure has become increasingly mainstream to the point that dynamic per packet and per flow decisions are possible at multiple layers of the communications stack. Exploiting such reconfigurability requires the design of a system that can enable a configuration, measure the impact on the application performance (Quality of Experience), and adaptively select a new configuration. Effectively, this feedback loop is a Markov Decision Process whose parameters are unknown. The goal of this work is to design, develop and demonstrate QFlow that instantiates this feedback loop as an application of reinforcement learning (RL). Our context is that of reconfigurable (priority) queueing, and we use the popular application of video streaming as our use case. We develop both model-free and model-based RL approaches that are tailored to the problem of determining which clients should be assigned to which queue at each decision period. Through experimental validation, we show how the RL-based control policies on QFlow are able to schedule the right clients for prioritization in a high-load scenario to outperform the status quo, as well as the best known solutions with over 25% improvement in QoE, and a perfect QoE score of 5 over 85% of the time.

Bayesian online changepoint detection (BOCPD) (Adams & MacKay, 2007) offers a rigorous and viable way to identity changepoints in complex systems. In this work, we introduce a Stein variational online changepoint detection (SVOCD) method to provide a computationally tractable generalization of BOCPD beyond the exponential family of probability distributions. We integrate the recently developed Stein variational Newton (SVN) method (Detommaso et al., 2018) and BOCPD to offer a full online Bayesian treatment for a large number of situations with significant importance in practice. We apply the resulting method to two challenging and novel applications: Hawkes processes and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks. In both cases, we successfully demonstrate the efficacy of our method on real data.

Policy evaluation is a key process in reinforcement learning. It assesses a given policy using estimation of the corresponding value function. When using a parameterized function to approximate the value, it is common to optimize the set of parameters by minimizing the sum of squared Bellman Temporal Differences errors. However, this approach ignores certain distributional properties of both the errors and value parameters. Taking these distributions into account in the optimization process can provide useful information on the amount of confidence in value estimation. In this work we propose to optimize the value by minimizing a regularized objective function which forms a trust region over its parameters. We present a novel optimization method, the Kalman Optimization for Value Approximation (KOVA), based on the Extended Kalman Filter. KOVA minimizes the regularized objective function by adopting a Bayesian perspective over both the value parameters and noisy observed returns. This distributional property provides information on parameter uncertainty in addition to value estimates. We provide theoretical results of our approach and analyze the performance of our proposed optimizer on domains with large state and action spaces.

The region of heavy calcium isotopes forms the frontier of experimental and theoretical nuclear structure research where the basic concepts of nuclear physics are put to stringent test. The recent discovery of the extremely neutron-rich nuclei around $^{60}$Ca [Tarasov, 2018] and the experimental determination of masses for $^{55-57}$Ca (Michimasa, 2018] provide unique information about the binding energy surface in this region. To assess the impact of these experimental discoveries on the nuclear landscape's extent, we use global mass models and statistical machine learning to make predictions, with quantified levels of certainty, for bound nuclides between Si and Ti. Using a Bayesian model averaging analysis based on Gaussian-process-based extrapolations we introduce the posterior probability $p_{ex}$ for each nucleus to be bound to neutron emission. We find that extrapolations for drip-line locations, at which the nuclear binding ends, are consistent across the global mass models used, in spite of significant variations between their raw predictions. In particular, considering the current experimental information and current global mass models, we predict that $^{68}$Ca has an average posterior probability ${p_{ex}\approx76}$% to be bound to two-neutron emission while the nucleus $^{61}$Ca is likely to decay by emitting a neutron (${p_{ex}\approx 46}$ %).

Many time-series data including text, movies, and biological signals can be represented as sequences of correlated binary patterns. These patterns may be described by weighted combinations of a few dominant structures that underpin specific interactions among the binary elements. To extract the dominant correlation structures and their contributions to generating data in a time-dependent manner, we model the dynamics of binary patterns using the state-space model of an Ising-type network that is composed of multiple undirected graphs. We provide a sequential Bayes algorithm to estimate the dynamics of weights on the graphs while gaining the graph structures online. This model can uncover overlapping graphs underlying the data better than a traditional orthogonal decomposition method, and outperforms an original time-dependent full Ising model. We assess the performance of the method by simulated data, and demonstrate that spontaneous activity of cultured hippocampal neurons is represented by dynamics of multiple graphs.

Birg{\'e} and Massart proposed in 2001 the slope heuristics as a way to choose optimally from data an unknown multiplicative constant in front of a penalty. It is built upon the notion of minimal penalty, and it has been generalized since to some 'minimal-penalty algorithms'. This paper reviews the theoretical results obtained for such algorithms, with a self-contained proof in the simplest framework, precise proof ideas for further generalizations, and a few new results. Explicit connections are made with residual-variance estimators-with an original contribution on this topic, showing that for this task the slope heuristics performs almost as well as a residual-based estimator with the best model choice-and some classical algorithms such as L-curve or elbow heuristics, Mallows' C p , and Akaike's FPE. Practical issues are also addressed, including two new practical definitions of minimal-penalty algorithms that are compared on synthetic data to previously-proposed definitions. Finally, several conjectures and open problems are suggested as future research directions.

Algorithms are the smart and powerful soldier of a complex machine learning model. In other words, machine learning algorithms are the core foundation when we play with data or when it's come to training the model. In this article, you and I are going on a tour called "7 major machine learning algorithms and their application " The purpose of this tour is to either brush up the mind or to gain an essential understanding of machine learning algorithm. We will find the major answer in this tour like for what purpose machine learning algorithms works, where to use them, when to use them and how to use them. Before getting deeper let's have a brief introduction. Machine learning algorithms are mainly classified into 3 broad categories i.e supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and reinforcement learning. In supervised learning machine learning algorithms, the machine is taught by example. Here the operator provides the machine learning algorithm with the dataset. This dataset includes desired inputs and outputs variables. By the use of these set of variables, we generate a function that map inputs to desired outputs.

Label shift refers to the phenomenon where the marginal probability p(y) of observing a particular class changes between the training and test distributions while the conditional probability p(x|y) stays fixed. This is relevant in settings such as medical diagnosis, where a classifier trained to predict disease based on observed symptoms may need to be adapted to a different distribution where the baseline frequency of the disease is higher. Given calibrated estimates of p(y|x), one can apply an EM algorithm to correct for the shift in class imbalance between the training and test distributions without ever needing to calculate p(x|y). Unfortunately, modern neural networks typically fail to produce well-calibrated probabilities, compromising the effectiveness of this approach. Although Temperature Scaling can greatly reduce miscalibration in these networks, it can leave behind a systematic bias in the probabilities that still poses a problem. To address this, we extend Temperature Scaling with class-specific bias parameters, which largely eliminates systematic bias in the calibrated probabilities and allows for effective domain adaptation under label shift. We term our calibration approach "Bias-Corrected Temperature Scaling". On experiments with CIFAR10, we find that EM with Bias-Corrected Temperature Scaling significantly outperforms both EM with Temperature Scaling and the recently-proposed Black-Box Shift Estimation.

Sign languages aren't easy to learn and are even harder to teach. They use not just hand gestures but also mouthings, facial expressions and body posture to communicate meaning. This complexity means professional teaching programmes are still rare and often expensive. But this could all change soon, with a little help from artificial intelligence (AI). My colleagues and I are working on software for teaching yourself sign languages in an automated, intuitive way.