Fairness is increasingly recognized as a critical component of machine learning systems. However, it is the underlying data on which these systems are trained that often reflect discrimination, suggesting a database repair problem. Existing treatments of fairness rely on statistical correlations that can be fooled by statistical anomalies, such as Simpson's paradox. Proposals for causality-based definitions of fairness can correctly model some of these situations, but they require specification of the underlying causal models. In this paper, we formalize the situation as a database repair problem, proving sufficient conditions for fair classifiers in terms of admissible variables as opposed to a complete causal model. We show that these conditions correctly capture subtle fairness violations. We then use these conditions as the basis for database repair algorithms that provide provable fairness guarantees about classifiers trained on their training labels. We evaluate our algorithms on real data, demonstrating improvement over the state of the art on multiple fairness metrics proposed in the literature while retaining high utility.

We propose a novel iterative channel estimation (ICE) algorithm that essentially removes the critical known noisy channel assumption for universal discrete denoising problem. Our algorithm is based on Neural DUDE (N-DUDE), a recently proposed neural network-based discrete denoiser, and it estimates the channel transition matrix as well as the neural network parameters in an alternating manner until convergence. While we do not make any probabilistic assumption on the underlying clean data, our ICE resembles Expectation-Maximization (EM) with variational approximation, and it takes advantage of the property of N-DUDE being locally robust around the true channel. With extensive experiments on several radically different types of data, we show that the ICE equipped N-DUDE (dubbed as ICE-N-DUDE) can perform \emph{universally} well regardless of the uncertainties in both the channel and the clean source. Moreover, we show ICE-N-DUDE becomes extremely robust to its hyperparameters and significantly outperforms the strong baseline that can deal with the channel uncertainties for denoising, the widely used Baum-Welch (BW) algorithm for hidden Markov models (HMM).

In a mixed-traffic scenario where both autonomous vehicles and human-driving vehicles exist, a timely prediction of driving intentions of nearby human-driving vehicles is essential for the safe and efficient driving of an autonomous vehicle. In this paper, a driving intention prediction method based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is proposed for autonomous vehicles. HMMs representing different driving intentions are trained and tested with field collected data from a flyover. When training the models, either discrete or continuous characterization of the mobility features of vehicles is applied. Experimental results show that the HMMs trained with the continuous characterization of mobility features can give a higher prediction accuracy when they are used for predicting driving intentions. Moreover, when the surrounding traffic of the vehicle is taken into account, the performances of the proposed prediction method are further improved.

Many applications in Bayesian statistics are extremely computationally intensive. However, they are also often inherently parallel, making them prime targets for modern massively parallel central processing unit (CPU) architectures. While the use of multi-core and distributed computing is widely applied in the Bayesian community, very little attention has been given to fine-grain parallelisation using single instruction multiple data (SIMD) operations that are available on most modern commodity CPUs. Rather, most fine-grain tuning in the literature has centred around general purpose graphics processing units (GPGPUs). Since the effective utilisation of GPGPUs typically requires specialised programming languages, such technologies are not ideal for the wider Bayesian community. In this work, we practically demonstrate, using standard programming libraries, the utility of the SIMD approach for several topical Bayesian applications. In particular, we consider sampling of the prior predictive distribution for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and the computation of Bayesian $p$-values for testing prior weak informativeness. Through minor code alterations, we show that SIMD operations can improve the floating point arithmetic performance resulting in up to $6\times$ improvement in the overall serial algorithm performance. Furthermore $4$-way parallel versions can lead to almost $19\times$ improvement over a na\"{i}ve serial implementation. We illustrate the potential of SIMD operations for accelerating Bayesian computations and provide the reader with essential implementation techniques required to exploit modern massively parallel processing environments using standard software development tools.

Crowd-sourcing is a cheap and popular means of creating training and evaluation datasets for machine learning, however it poses the problem of `truth inference', as individual workers cannot be wholly trusted to provide reliable annotations. Research into models of annotation aggregation attempts to infer a latent `true' annotation, which has been shown to improve the utility of crowd-sourced data. However, existing techniques beat simple baselines only in low redundancy settings, where the number of annotations per instance is low ($\le 3$), or in situations where workers are unreliable and produce low quality annotations (e.g., through spamming, random, or adversarial behaviours.) As we show, datasets produced by crowd-sourcing are often not of this type: the data is highly redundantly annotated ($\ge 5$ annotations per instance), and the vast majority of workers produce high quality outputs. In these settings, the majority vote heuristic performs very well, and most truth inference models underperform this simple baseline. We propose a novel technique, based on a Bayesian graphical model with conjugate priors, and simple iterative expectation-maximisation inference. Our technique produces competitive performance to the state-of-the-art benchmark methods, and is the only method that significantly outperforms the majority vote heuristic at one-sided level 0.025, shown by significance tests. Moreover, our technique is simple, is implemented in only 50 lines of code, and trains in seconds.

Defining action spaces for conversational agents and optimizing their decision-making process with reinforcement learning is an enduring challenge. Common practice has been to use handcrafted dialog acts, or the output vocabulary, e.g. in neural encoder decoders, as the action spaces. Both have their own limitations. This paper proposes a novel latent action framework that treats the action spaces of an end-to-end dialog agent as latent variables and develops unsupervised methods in order to induce its own action space from the data. Comprehensive experiments are conducted examining both continuous and discrete action types and two different optimization methods based on stochastic variational inference. Results show that the proposed latent actions achieve superior empirical performance improvement over previous word-level policy gradient methods on both DealOrNoDeal and MultiWoz dialogs. Our detailed analysis also provides insights about various latent variable approaches for policy learning and can serve as a foundation for developing better latent actions in future research.

Non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) is a technique to recover source appliances from only the recorded mains in a household. NILM is unidentifiable and thus a challenge problem because the inferred power value of an appliance given only the mains could not be unique. To mitigate the unidentifiable problem, various methods incorporating domain knowledge into NILM have been proposed and shown effective experimentally. Recently, among these methods, deep neural networks are shown performing best. Arguably, the recently proposed sequence-to-point (seq2point) learning is promising for NILM. However, the results were only carried out on the same data domain. It is not clear if the method could be generalised or transferred to different domains, e.g., the test data were drawn from a different country comparing to the training data. We address this issue in the paper, and two transfer learning schemes are proposed, i.e., appliance transfer learning (ATL) and cross-domain transfer learning (CTL). For ATL, our results show that the latent features learnt by a `complex' appliance, e.g., washing machine, can be transferred to a `simple' appliance, e.g., kettle. For CTL, our conclusion is that the seq2point learning is transferable. Precisely, when the training and test data are in a similar domain, seq2point learning can be directly applied to the test data without fine tuning; when the training and test data are in different domains, seq2point learning needs fine tuning before applying to the test data. Interestingly, we show that only the fully connected layers need fine tuning for transfer learning.

Statistical uncertainties are rarely incorporated in machine learning algorithms, especially for anomaly detection. Here we present the Bayesian Anomaly Detection And Classification (BADAC) formalism, which provides a unified statistical approach to classification and anomaly detection within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. BADAC deals with uncertainties by marginalising over the unknown, true, value of the data. Using simulated data with Gaussian noise, BADAC is shown to be superior to standard algorithms in both classification and anomaly detection performance in the presence of uncertainties, though with significantly increased computational cost. Additionally, BADAC provides well-calibrated classification probabilities, valuable for use in scientific pipelines. We show that BADAC can work in online mode and is fairly robust to model errors, which can be diagnosed through model-selection methods. In addition it can perform unsupervised new class detection and can naturally be extended to search for anomalous subsets of data. BADAC is therefore ideal where computational cost is not a limiting factor and statistical rigour is important. We discuss approximations to speed up BADAC, such as the use of Gaussian processes, and finally introduce a new metric, the Rank-Weighted Score (RWS), that is particularly suited to evaluating the ability of algorithms to detect anomalies.

The medical field is creating large amount of data that physicians are unable to decipher and use efficiently. Moreover, rule-based expert systems are inefficient in solving complicated medical tasks or for creating insights using big data. Deep learning has emerged as a more accurate and effective technology in a wide range of medical problems such as diagnosis, prediction and intervention. Deep learning is a representation learning method that consists of layers that transform the data non-linearly, thus, revealing hierarchical relationships and structures. In this review we survey deep learning application papers that use structured data, signal and imaging modalities from cardiology. We discuss the advantages and limitations of applying deep learning in cardiology that also apply in medicine in general, while proposing certain directions as the most viable for clinical use.

Recent studies have suggested that the cognitive process of the human brain is realized as probabilistic inference and can be further modeled by probabilistic graphical models like Markov random fields. Nevertheless, it remains unclear how probabilistic inference can be implemented by a network of spiking neurons in the brain. Previous studies tried to relate the inference equation of binary Markov random fields to the dynamic equation of spiking neural networks through belief propagation algorithm and reparameterization, but they are valid only for Markov random fields with limited network structure. In this paper, we propose a spiking neural network model that can implement inference of arbitrary binary Markov random fields. Specifically, we design a spiking recurrent neural network and prove that its neuronal dynamics are mathematically equivalent to the inference process of Markov random fields by adopting mean-field theory.